Maxwell playoff projections heading into Second Round

August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION
Caption
August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION

Credit: Jason Getz

Credit: Jason Getz

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2021 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Collins Hill#1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA)10-0110.6785.084.58991,490.31969,011.55843,276.92777,256.040.29
North Cobb#1 (GHSA 3-AAAAAAA)10-196.5392.663.00923,576.66830,676.26145,212.1699,789.429.02
Mill Creek#2 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA)10-193.0792.183.03896,153.72641,123.86424,763.7466,270.5514.09
Brookwood#1 (GHSA 4-AAAAAAA)9-289.9892.112.77799,698.09614,619.31320,314.2237,530.4725.65
Milton#1 (GHSA 5-AAAAAAA)10-185.8693.991.97617,001.33228,710.47111,545.658,735.81113.47
Walton#3 (GHSA 3-AAAAAAA)7-382.9193.892.04721,395.06243,493.9869,397.564,028.24247.25
Marietta#2 (GHSA 3-AAAAAAA)7-482.9695.151.53382,998.67106,259.3341,611.282,427.92410.88
Lowndes#1 (GHSA 1-AAAAAAA)9-280.6795.681.90870,009.3327,550.985,578.961,456.82685.43
Grayson#2 (GHSA 4-AAAAAAA)8-381.0996.861.77663,468.17104,409.244,056.841,097.29910.33
North Gwinnett#3 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA)6-579.6294.941.31200,301.9193,375.5520,107.33826.021,209.62
Roswell#2 (GHSA 5-AAAAAAA)9-277.0597.511.1176,423.3433,319.93882.16166.655,999.57
Archer#1 (GHSA 7-AAAAAAA)7-474.0593.961.33278,604.9448,511.177,279.52163.266,124.29
McEachern#1 (GHSA 2-AAAAAAA)7-474.2994.701.13103,846.2823,906.344,980.71114.818,708.68
Denmark#1 (GHSA 6-AAAAAAA)8-274.4796.481.37336,531.8331,594.58719.27105.939,439.00
Pebblebrook#2 (GHSA 2-AAAAAAA)8-1-172.5497.491.018,509.692,589.98234.0828.3735,248.89
Norcross#2 (GHSA 7-AAAAAAA)8-366.0597.421.13129,990.67847.4839.602.39417,631.86

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Buford#1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA)10-1100.5176.894.46992,380.07887,804.71819,002.27763,459.210.31
Hughes#1 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA)10-181.8178.583.34923,413.84749,472.53576,905.3295,143.239.51
Lee County#1 (GHSA 1-AAAAAA)10-184.5486.191.89702,405.6092,699.9658,719.5839,869.5824.08
Carrollton#2 (GHSA 5-AAAAAA)10-181.5783.312.61961,665.90544,859.0764,887.1439,036.3824.62
Westlake#2 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA)9-281.1284.472.34842,312.54424,957.4848,497.2928,585.4133.98
Johns Creek#4 (GHSA 7-AAAAAA)8-374.4680.692.66913,249.85539,436.07187,676.3015,836.8162.14
Northside (Warner Robins)#2 (GHSA 1-AAAAAA)7-372.1982.121.93665,120.86172,317.8186,108.585,791.77171.66
Brunswick#1 (GHSA 2-AAAAAA)11-070.8581.691.90562,635.07260,970.6776,488.794,485.43221.94
Cambridge#2 (GHSA 7-AAAAAA)9-178.5088.511.33297,594.4018,997.068,086.944,181.36238.16
Dacula#2 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA)7-469.8182.401.68437,364.93189,711.5147,650.902,505.85398.07
Douglas County#4 (GHSA 5-AAAAAA)8-367.5783.161.41334,879.1457,848.3019,926.05824.221,212.26
Kennesaw Mountain#1 (GHSA 6-AAAAAA)10-166.2985.681.19157,687.4627,769.39750.46160.826,217.30
Shiloh#3 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA)5-662.3583.101.1076,586.1620,361.374,695.74108.639,204.21
Lovejoy#3 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA)5-461.4588.461.017,619.93498.2740.555.50181,960.89
Evans#2 (GHSA 3-AAAAAA)9-254.0482.431.1086,750.159,881.76548.324.83207,002.97
Alcovy#1 (GHSA 3-AAAAAA)5-454.0085.471.0438,334.102,414.0615.760.971,030,189.60

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Woodward Academy#1 (GHSA 3-AAAAA)11-088.7577.543.67932,352.95910,250.83526,136.33297,943.482.36
Ware County#1 (GHSA 1-AAAAA)9-188.5979.943.31833,205.72801,912.08429,721.14241,286.093.14
Warner Robins#2 (GHSA 1-AAAAA)10-188.8983.132.54536,694.50496,665.83330,166.54172,326.104.80
Creekside#2 (GHSA 3-AAAAA)9-285.6680.103.17862,959.59790,634.06360,940.06154,086.235.49
Cartersville#1 (GHSA 7-AAAAA)10-086.6582.862.28463,305.50423,585.26268,584.35122,353.427.17
Calhoun#2 (GHSA 7-AAAAA)9-276.3884.421.34166,794.28139,588.0531,057.857,360.66134.86
Jones County#1 (GHSA 4-AAAAA)9-268.4881.961.92824,018.6276,216.1915,949.311,471.46678.60
St. Pius X#1 (GHSA 5-AAAAA)9-269.4882.881.24137,040.4188,287.2312,215.261,249.97799.02
Whitewater#1 (GHSA 2-AAAAA)10-166.1981.711.97842,616.10116,336.1011,812.49857.181,165.62
Blessed Trinity#3 (GHSA 7-AAAAA)7-468.1983.901.1367,647.0550,686.556,443.43705.221,417.00
Clarke Central#1 (GHSA 8-AAAAA)9-262.1882.941.55519,202.5431,386.252,412.51141.217,080.45
Starr's Mill#2 (GHSA 2-AAAAA)8-362.5883.671.51480,797.4627,113.632,027.86123.918,069.11
Villa Rica#1 (GHSA 6-AAAAA)8-258.3482.651.53512,186.3720,424.741,196.2645.9621,755.26
Harris County#3 (GHSA 2-AAAAA)7-458.9783.421.51487,813.6318,637.871,004.6341.4024,151.47
Eastside#3 (GHSA 8-AAAAA)8-356.8083.911.18175,981.383,532.72222.135.75173,833.44
Lithia Springs#3 (GHSA 6-AAAAA)5-653.4183.561.16157,383.904,742.61109.871.93517,066.09

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Benedictine#1 (GHSA 3-AAAA)9-293.8770.534.38994,330.87845,520.20793,814.52743,471.550.35
Marist#1 (GHSA 6-AAAA)9-180.1277.522.29941,144.30153,308.89114,210.8284,354.4010.85
Carver (Columbus)#1 (GHSA 2-AAAA)9-173.3874.622.71788,168.91557,247.67319,861.1546,872.2620.33
Perry#1 (GHSA 4-AAAA)10-173.0475.502.46723,458.56441,385.52257,443.7336,640.3726.29
North Oconee#1 (GHSA 8-AAAA)8-372.7476.372.33793,259.66464,441.1649,124.5926,565.5636.64
Cedartown#1 (GHSA 7-AAAA)9-171.3475.592.33728,550.55373,460.80199,889.2924,515.4739.79
Bainbridge#1 (GHSA 1-AAAA)7-370.7875.662.46932,464.50470,779.7940,737.5619,673.7249.83
Riverdale#1 (GHSA 5-AAAA)9-0-167.9675.522.12704,454.21287,585.29119,760.8210,762.7091.91
Flowery Branch#3 (GHSA 8-AAAA)8-366.1677.731.42276,541.44103,952.1437,619.242,840.69351.03
Cairo#2 (GHSA 1-AAAA)7-364.2477.571.38271,449.4581,201.5425,825.941,611.84619.41
Hapeville Charter#3 (GHSA 6-AAAA)6-563.6077.351.32211,831.0985,632.0223,351.681,364.62731.80
Dougherty#3 (GHSA 1-AAAA)9-261.8477.191.38295,545.7969,535.0116,248.16791.741,262.04
Spalding#3 (GHSA 4-AAAA)8-262.7178.991.27206,740.3459,111.391,897.74503.411,985.46
LaGrange#3 (GHSA 2-AAAA)7-258.3382.091.0658,855.70895.57147.0526.0538,387.26
Northwest Whitfield#2 (GHSA 7-AAAA)8-350.2078.731.0767,535.505,667.6642.873.24308,785.36
Luella#2 (GHSA 5-AAAA)8-352.3781.941.015,669.13275.3424.862.38419,871.96

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Monroe Area#1 (GHSA 8-AAA)10-081.6466.813.88934,006.32770,315.22687,642.06492,330.951.03
Oconee County#2 (GHSA 8-AAA)10-178.7170.573.16828,030.37603,754.26474,482.06251,975.882.97
Cedar Grove#1 (GHSA 5-AAA)8-370.1869.722.53938,285.26329,392.37196,846.3262,820.3014.92
Pierce County#1 (GHSA 1-AAA)9-270.2570.402.23837,342.88199,742.87135,369.0756,448.6316.72
Thomson#1 (GHSA 4-AAA)10-068.3671.302.06589,144.34329,137.24110,338.5130,887.7131.38
Appling County#2 (GHSA 1-AAA)10-168.5372.091.99577,698.56295,005.8692,555.9126,235.3337.12
Stephens County#4 (GHSA 8-AAA)8-367.1371.272.04609,352.29343,805.3467,717.3222,782.8142.89
Carver (Atlanta)#2 (GHSA 5-AAA)7-264.6969.142.52948,337.86474,755.2075,574.1821,057.9746.49
Ringgold#2 (GHSA 6-AAA)10-166.4272.651.67410,855.66192,858.5251,040.5112,328.1380.12
Cherokee Bluff#1 (GHSA 7-AAA)11-064.9271.881.66422,301.44182,998.3946,522.439,954.1799.46
Crisp County#1 (GHSA 2-AAA)8-364.7473.271.27171,969.6364,335.6427,987.155,900.17168.49
Burke County#2 (GHSA 4-AAA)8-262.4471.571.60390,647.71178,864.8623,076.585,320.79186.94
Peach County#2 (GHSA 2-AAA)7-360.8673.641.0965,993.6818,516.347,135.851,429.51698.54
Dawson County#2 (GHSA 7-AAA)7-457.7973.471.18162,657.1211,425.563,453.48517.011,933.19
Southeast Bulloch#2 (GHSA 3-AAA)10-148.8173.521.0661,714.742,517.73227.139.98100,165.54
Liberty County#1 (GHSA 3-AAA)6-339.7070.811.0551,662.142,574.5931.470.641,574,229.70

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Thomasville#1 (GHSA 1-AA)10-176.3162.843.55975,012.27635,587.91523,851.86412,777.801.42
Fitzgerald#2 (GHSA 1-AA)9-268.8362.263.29892,121.08722,736.65491,434.61188,077.864.32
Rabun County#1 (GHSA 8-AA)10-172.7566.522.62839,474.83342,324.22259,075.34184,089.744.43
Bleckley County#1 (GHSA 3-AA)11-066.2063.192.82820,546.33709,375.52188,855.89101,282.958.87
Swainsboro#1 (GHSA 2-AA)9-262.8963.072.69888,781.71510,730.30230,162.8155,627.7216.98
Northeast#2 (GHSA 3-AA)8-362.0765.881.94541,338.47266,471.77106,965.5724,091.8340.51
Haralson County#1 (GHSA 5-AA)10-159.6765.491.76458,661.53207,519.9176,063.8213,828.2471.32
Putnam County#1 (GHSA 4-AA)11-057.4563.862.10791,994.95216,438.4982,401.4112,157.0981.26
Jeff Davis#2 (GHSA 2-AA)9-160.1670.641.19160,525.1720,672.998,548.743,145.10316.95
South Atlanta#1 (GHSA 6-AA)10-152.5764.961.84680,369.07146,499.829,998.871,963.02508.42
Callaway#2 (GHSA 5-AA)8-254.7266.691.30179,453.67105,826.738,157.841,942.69513.75
Fannin County#1 (GHSA 7-AA)10-150.4165.421.16107,878.9239,354.788,263.01596.421,675.67
Lovett#2 (GHSA 6-AA)8-347.4865.911.23208,005.0521,470.083,065.20161.246,201.07
Westside (Augusta)#2 (GHSA 4-AA)9-247.3966.331.36319,630.9338,297.931,301.47153.636,508.00
Columbia#3 (GHSA 6-AA)8-346.8266.681.13111,218.2915,278.021,643.5680.3912,437.79
Heard County#3 (GHSA 5-AA)6-547.1870.311.0324,987.731,414.89209.9924.2641,223.31

Class A Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Metter#1 (GHSA 3-A Public)11-067.9559.283.14774,572.57656,489.67432,856.18272,779.142.67
Brooks County#2 (GHSA 2-A Public)8-265.2256.093.45906,887.95863,305.44436,015.74241,822.173.14
Irwin County#1 (GHSA 2-A Public)9-265.2156.703.16929,751.05520,320.19471,766.41234,496.953.26
Macon County#1 (GHSA 5-A Public)10-064.5457.452.97897,490.27458,621.60412,581.53197,140.814.07
Schley County#2 (GHSA 5-A Public)10-158.8263.021.44225,427.43142,348.1355,509.5821,038.2246.53
Bowdon#1 (GHSA 6-A Public)10-155.5060.522.00747,259.36177,087.5259,513.5117,778.3155.25
Trion#2 (GHSA 6-A Public)10-147.8258.241.80491,605.37274,194.8029,874.313,571.89278.96
Wilcox County#1 (GHSA 4-A Public)8-347.0657.671.81508,394.63271,991.7630,495.983,378.40295.00
Manchester#4 (GHSA 5-A Public)6-447.4758.501.76501,081.51235,434.8424,589.452,839.51351.17
McIntosh County Academy#3 (GHSA 3-A Public)6-4-146.4058.371.74498,918.49218,378.6020,372.732,110.65472.79
Washington-Wilkes#1 (GHSA 8-A Public)9-245.4460.091.1693,112.0562,420.477,337.70937.551,065.61
Emanuel County Institute#2 (GHSA 3-A Public)9-247.7162.171.12102,509.7313,276.306,910.28817.551,222.16
Turner County#3 (GHSA 2-A Public)5-647.6162.921.28252,740.6424,074.673,986.79620.811,609.81
Lincoln County#2 (GHSA 8-A Public)8-344.9862.081.0870,248.957,781.913,409.31304.873,279.07
Warren County#2 (GHSA 7-A Public)8-340.5960.271.54497,397.6436,782.252,368.44188.705,298.35
Pelham#1 (GHSA 1-A Public)6-439.6459.561.54502,602.3637,491.842,412.06174.485,730.17

Class A Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)#1 (GHSA 4-A Private)10-088.2160.914.68998,387.48986,105.08892,504.37800,201.080.25
Calvary Day#1 (GHSA 3-A Private)11-071.5969.473.28928,332.77798,795.24478,027.6477,859.1511.84
Prince Avenue Christian#1 (GHSA 8-A Private)9-170.4269.283.26943,210.62813,743.53441,309.3664,792.3314.43
Eagle's Landing Christian#1 (GHSA 2-A Private)4-671.2371.172.89960,969.84782,716.5597,045.1751,859.4418.28
Holy Innocents#1 (GHSA 5-A Private)10-160.0373.472.11893,411.70205,314.798,462.162,034.48490.53
First Presbyterian#1 (GHSA 1-A Private)9-256.6871.992.02821,629.81158,215.9934,375.101,297.53769.70
Fellowship Christian#1 (GHSA 6-A Private)10-157.2472.761.67543,161.35102,126.4724,573.94984.631,014.61
St. Anne-Pacelli#2 (GHSA 4-A Private)8-256.8573.491.55456,838.6575,901.9216,319.23627.191,593.40
Tattnall Square#2 (GHSA 1-A Private)9-154.1974.431.60585,183.209,020.961,349.48189.455,277.33
Wesleyan#2 (GHSA 5-A Private)8-351.5473.721.1071,667.2323,176.373,144.6167.7314,763.01
Darlington#1 (GHSA 7-A Private)10-150.3373.811.42414,816.804,695.11534.1750.7919,686.94
Brookstone#3 (GHSA 4-A Private)7-348.3273.481.0856,789.3817,332.301,558.3523.4042,740.91
Mount Vernon#3 (GHSA 5-A Private)7-445.1473.401.19178,370.1910,708.17691.767.22138,595.42
Athens Academy#2 (GHSA 8-A Private)8-345.8975.371.0539,030.167,141.0465.833.90256,343.67
Savannah Country Day#2 (GHSA 3-A Private)4-643.5675.341.11106,588.304,827.6234.811.59627,180.08
Athens Christian#3 (GHSA 8-A Private)7-436.3274.621.001,612.52178.853.990.0812,523,131.48