High School Sports Blog

Maxwell 2023 preseason summary

Grayson running back Jayvian Allen (16, left) celebrates a rushing touchdown with wide receiver Jamal Haynes in the first half of the Class 7A state high school football final against Collins Hill Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)
Grayson running back Jayvian Allen (16, left) celebrates a rushing touchdown with wide receiver Jamal Haynes in the first half of the Class 7A state high school football final against Collins Hill Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
Aug 15, 2023

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the 466 teams of the Georgia High School Association (GHSA), the Georgia Independent Athletic Association (GIAA), and the Georgia Association of Private & Parochial Schools (GAPPS) throughout the 2023 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

A hypothetical score at a neutral location can be calculated between two teams by adding their offensive and defensive ratings. To account for home advantage, adjust the hypothetical scores in favor of the home team by half of the home advantage.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of ---- of ---- total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game scores within --.-- points and all game margins within --.-- points.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.57

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Buford0-0100.061Lee County0-090.45
2Mill Creek0-098.292Hughes0-090.19
3Colquitt County0-096.733Roswell0-089.42
4North Cobb0-094.524Rome0-088.17
5Milton0-094.225Marist0-087.33
6Carrollton0-093.116Woodward Academy0-084.99
7Grayson0-091.807Gainesville0-081.84
8Walton0-090.578Northside (Warner Robins)0-081.25
9Westlake0-088.429Blessed Trinity0-081.23
10North Gwinnett0-087.9310Houston County0-078.91
11Lowndes0-086.2911Allatoona0-078.06
12Valdosta0-085.7712Thomas County Central0-077.85
13Parkview0-085.6313Brunswick0-077.31
14Marietta0-084.8614South Paulding0-075.79
15Brookwood0-084.5615Creekview0-075.23



AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Ware County0-092.391Benedictine0-089.07
2Warner Robins0-088.562Cedartown0-085.57
3Cartersville0-088.263Bainbridge0-081.66
4Coffee0-082.154North Oconee0-080.70
5Calhoun0-081.865Perry0-077.72
6Creekside0-081.036Burke County0-073.25
7Jefferson0-079.857Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)0-073.03
8Jones County0-076.328Troup0-072.98
9Cambridge0-076.199Starr's Mill0-072.17
10Dutchtown0-075.5110Stockbridge0-070.77
11Kell0-072.2311Whitewater0-070.12
12Clarke Central0-071.3012Cairo0-069.79
13Eastside0-068.7413Wayne County0-069.71
14Mays0-068.1614Holy Innocents0-069.57
15Dalton0-067.5415LaGrange0-067.83



AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove0-091.061Fitzgerald0-080.19
2Sandy Creek0-081.552Pierce County0-077.79
3Oconee County0-080.743Thomson0-076.96
4Carver (Atlanta)0-076.604Appling County0-076.60
5Thomasville0-076.475Rockmart0-075.02
6Carver (Columbus)0-076.046Fellowship Christian0-073.56
7Peach County0-075.707Callaway0-070.68
8Monroe Area0-075.668Eagle's Landing Christian0-070.06
9Calvary Day0-073.029Athens Academy0-065.29
10Stephens County0-072.6010Northeast0-064.91
11Crisp County0-070.2311South Atlanta0-064.50
12Hart County0-069.4012Cook0-063.94
13Savannah Christian0-067.1113Putnam County0-063.35
14Dawson County0-066.2414Dodge County0-063.22
15Dougherty0-065.6615Fannin County0-060.52



A Division I A Division II
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Prince Avenue Christian0-083.371Bowdon0-063.90
2Irwin County0-080.412Schley County0-062.78
3Rabun County0-079.223Clinch County0-062.10
4Brooks County0-078.594Early County0-061.07
5Swainsboro0-074.485Wilcox County0-057.69
6Bleckley County0-070.016Charlton County0-056.98
7Metter0-069.857Johnson County0-056.96
8Dublin0-066.208Lincoln County0-056.67
9Darlington0-065.809McIntosh County Academy0-055.75
10Elbert County0-062.9910Manchester0-055.53
11Lamar County0-060.7211Christian Heritage0-054.48
12Whitefield Academy0-059.4312Washington-Wilkes0-054.15
13Commerce0-058.0213Macon County0-053.91
14Heard County0-057.1814Emanuel County Institute0-053.06
15St. Francis0-056.8615Aquinas0-052.90



GIAA AAAA-AAA GIAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1John Milledge Academy0-073.341Central Fellowship Christian0-047.39
2St. Anne-Pacelli0-060.612Brentwood School0-047.11
3Stratford Academy0-059.083Gatewood School0-039.94
4Tattnall Square0-057.364Briarwood Academy0-036.67
5Brookstone0-055.495Edmund Burke Academy0-030.33



GIAA A GAPPS AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Thomas Jefferson0-042.181Cherokee Christian0-029.87
2Robert Toombs Academy0-026.072Skipstone Academy0-023.83
3Flint River Academy0-012.373King's Academy0-023.57
4Memorial Day0-011.944Calvary Christian0-023.28
5Fullington Academy0-011.315Creekside Christian0-019.12



All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating Sch Str Rank Offense Defense
1 [1]Buford8-AAAAAAA0-0100.0634.35-11.66
2 [2]Mill Creek8-AAAAAAA0-098.2934.64-9.61
3 [3]Colquitt County1-AAAAAAA0-096.7334.54-8.14
4 [4]North Cobb5-AAAAAAA0-094.5230.78-9.69
5 [5]Milton6-AAAAAAA0-094.2230.78-9.39
6 [6]Carrollton2-AAAAAAA0-093.1132.35-6.71
7 [1]Ware County1-AAAAA0-092.3930.39-7.95
8 [7]Grayson4-AAAAAAA0-091.8029.74-8.01
9 [1]Cedar Grove5-AAA0-091.0629.65-7.36
10 [8]Walton5-AAAAAAA0-090.5730.71-5.81
11 [1]Lee County1-AAAAAA0-090.4529.97-6.43
12 [2]Hughes5-AAAAAA0-090.1929.75-6.39
13 [3]Roswell7-AAAAAA0-089.4229.97-5.40
14 [1]Benedictine3-AAAA0-089.0729.84-5.18
15 [2]Warner Robins2-AAAAA0-088.5628.97-5.55
16 [9]Westlake2-AAAAAAA0-088.4229.14-5.23
17 [3]Cartersville7-AAAAA0-088.2628.99-5.22
18 [4]Rome6-AAAAAA0-088.1727.36-6.76
19 [10]North Gwinnett7-AAAAAAA0-087.9329.01-4.87
20 [5]Marist4-AAAAAA0-087.3328.34-4.94
21 [11]Lowndes1-AAAAAAA0-086.2928.92-3.32
22 [12]Valdosta1-AAAAAAA0-085.7725.18-6.54
23 [13]Parkview4-AAAAAAA0-085.6328.60-2.97
24 [2]Cedartown7-AAAA0-085.5726.20-5.32
25 [6]Woodward Academy3-AAAAAA0-084.9926.13-4.81
26 [14]Marietta3-AAAAAAA0-084.8627.17-3.64
27 [15]Brookwood4-AAAAAAA0-084.5627.87-2.64
28 [16]Collins Hill8-AAAAAAA0-084.3324.89-5.39
29 [1]Prince Avenue Christian5-A Division I0-083.3728.19-1.13
30 [17]Norcross7-AAAAAAA0-082.7125.96-2.71
31 [4]Coffee1-AAAAA0-082.1525.57-2.53
32 [5]Calhoun7-AAAAA0-081.8625.67-2.13
33 [7]Gainesville8-AAAAAA0-081.8425.24-2.55
34 [3]Bainbridge1-AAAA0-081.6625.25-2.36
35 [2]Sandy Creek5-AAA0-081.5526.03-1.47
36 [18]Camden County1-AAAAAAA0-081.4425.40-1.98
37 [8]Northside (Warner Robins)1-AAAAAA0-081.2523.04-4.16
38 [9]Blessed Trinity7-AAAAAA0-081.2324.45-2.73
39 [6]Creekside5-AAAAA0-081.0325.00-1.98
40 [19]South Forsyth6-AAAAAAA0-080.8524.98-1.82
41 [3]Oconee County8-AAA0-080.7423.51-3.19
42 [4]North Oconee8-AAAA0-080.7024.89-1.76
43 [2]Irwin County1-A Division I0-080.4124.26-2.11
44 [20]East Coweta2-AAAAAAA0-080.2325.89-0.29
45 [1]Fitzgerald1-AA0-080.1923.39-2.75
46 [7]Jefferson8-AAAAA0-079.8522.99-2.81
47 [21]McEachern3-AAAAAAA0-079.7524.98-0.72
48 [22]North Paulding3-AAAAAAA0-079.5825.28-0.26
49 [23]Harrison3-AAAAAAA0-079.2324.06-1.12
50 [3]Rabun County8-A Division I0-079.2224.86-0.31
51 [10]Houston County1-AAAAAA0-078.9124.73-0.13
52 [4]Brooks County1-A Division I0-078.5924.46-0.08
53 [24]West Forsyth6-AAAAAAA0-078.3622.59-1.72
54 [25]Denmark6-AAAAAAA0-078.2822.20-2.03
55 [26]Newton4-AAAAAAA0-078.2321.81-2.36
56 [27]Archer4-AAAAAAA0-078.1422.22-1.88
57 [11]Allatoona6-AAAAAA0-078.0622.39-1.63
58 [12]Thomas County Central1-AAAAAA0-077.8523.74-0.06
59 [2]Pierce County3-AA0-077.7924.060.31
60 [5]Perry2-AAAA0-077.7222.88-0.79
61 [28]Lambert6-AAAAAAA0-077.5524.090.58
62 [13]Brunswick2-AAAAAA0-077.3123.480.22
63 [3]Thomson4-AA0-076.9622.40-0.50
64 [4]Appling County3-AA0-076.6022.01-0.55
65 [4]Carver (Atlanta)5-AAA0-076.6022.36-0.19
66 [5]Thomasville1-AAA0-076.4722.30-0.12
67 [8]Jones County2-AAAAA0-076.3224.922.65
68 [9]Cambridge6-AAAAA0-076.1923.040.90
69 [6]Carver (Columbus)1-AAA0-076.0421.97-0.02
70 [29]Dacula8-AAAAAAA0-075.9921.990.04
71 [14]South Paulding5-AAAAAA0-075.7924.172.43
72 [7]Peach County2-AAA0-075.7022.110.47
73 [8]Monroe Area8-AAA0-075.6622.190.58
74 [10]Dutchtown2-AAAAA0-075.5119.82-1.64
75 [15]Creekview6-AAAAAA0-075.2320.55-0.63
76 [30]Pebblebrook2-AAAAAAA0-075.1621.640.53
77 [16]Alpharetta7-AAAAAA0-075.1523.212.11
78 [5]Rockmart7-AA0-075.0223.112.14
79 [31]Mountain View8-AAAAAAA0-074.7221.300.63
80 [17]Douglas County5-AAAAAA0-074.4920.960.52
81 [5]Swainsboro2-A Division I0-074.4820.770.34
82 [32]South Gwinnett4-AAAAAAA0-073.9620.650.74
83 [18]North Forsyth8-AAAAAA0-073.8121.271.51
84 [19]St. Pius X4-AAAAAA0-073.6620.130.51
85 [6]Fellowship Christian8-AA0-073.5621.592.08
86 [1]John Milledge AcademyGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-073.3419.780.49
87 [6]Burke County3-AAAA0-073.2522.012.80
88 [7]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)4-AAAA0-073.0320.711.73
89 [9]Calvary Day3-AAA0-073.0221.332.36
90 [8]Troup4-AAAA0-072.9822.223.29
91 [10]Stephens County8-AAA0-072.6019.571.02
92 [33]Kennesaw Mountain5-AAAAAAA0-072.4921.843.40
93 [11]Kell6-AAAAA0-072.2320.742.56
94 [9]Starr's Mill4-AAAA0-072.1718.330.21
95 [34]Hillgrove3-AAAAAAA0-072.1520.142.03
96 [35]Richmond Hill1-AAAAAAA0-071.7819.161.43
97 [12]Clarke Central8-AAAAA0-071.3020.933.68
98 [20]Sequoyah6-AAAAAA0-070.9517.870.97
99 [10]Stockbridge5-AAAA0-070.7719.162.44
100 [7]Callaway5-AA0-070.6819.763.13
101 [21]Shiloh8-AAAAAA0-070.6519.392.79
102 [11]Crisp County1-AAA0-070.2318.402.22
103 [11]Whitewater4-AAAA0-070.1219.473.40
104 [8]Eagle's Landing Christian5-AA0-070.0621.115.10
105 [36]Cherokee5-AAAAAAA0-070.0620.274.26
106 [6]Bleckley County2-A Division I0-070.0118.892.93
107 [7]Metter3-A Division I0-069.8517.521.72
108 [12]Cairo1-AAAA0-069.7918.692.95
109 [13]Wayne County3-AAAA0-069.7117.812.15
110 [22]Newnan5-AAAAAA0-069.5920.324.78
111 [14]Holy Innocents6-AAAA0-069.5718.693.17
112 [12]Hart County8-AAA0-069.4019.754.40
113 [23]River Ridge6-AAAAAA0-069.2719.354.13
114 [13]Eastside8-AAAAA0-068.7418.003.31
115 [24]Glynn Academy2-AAAAAA0-068.4818.353.91
116 [14]Mays5-AAAAA0-068.1620.576.45
117 [15]LaGrange4-AAAA0-067.8318.104.31
118 [25]Alexander5-AAAAAA0-067.7717.814.09
119 [26]Lovejoy3-AAAAAA0-067.6418.214.62
120 [16]Hapeville Charter6-AAAA0-067.6116.743.18
121 [15]Dalton7-AAAAA0-067.5419.225.73
122 [17]Stephenson6-AAAA0-067.4917.774.33
123 [16]Flowery Branch8-AAAAA0-067.4517.564.15
124 [27]Veterans1-AAAAAA0-067.3918.775.43
125 [13]Savannah Christian3-AAA0-067.1118.185.13
126 [28]Tift County1-AAAAAA0-066.4016.804.45
127 [29]North Atlanta4-AAAAAA0-066.4017.565.20
128 [18]Westminster (Atlanta)6-AAAA0-066.3815.633.30
129 [14]Dawson County7-AAA0-066.2417.625.43
130 [8]Dublin2-A Division I0-066.2017.555.40
131 [17]Loganville8-AAAAA0-066.1016.834.78
132 [18]Ola2-AAAAA0-065.8317.665.88
133 [9]Darlington7-A Division I0-065.8017.555.80
134 [15]Dougherty1-AAA0-065.6617.866.25
135 [30]Effingham County2-AAAAAA0-065.4616.274.86
136 [31]Sprayberry7-AAAAAA0-065.3618.166.85
137 [9]Athens Academy8-AA0-065.2917.256.01
138 [32]Lanier8-AAAAAA0-065.2116.335.17
139 [10]Northeast2-AA0-064.9116.505.63
140 [33]Johns Creek7-AAAAAA0-064.8917.246.40
141 [19]Lovett5-AAAA0-064.8715.194.37
142 [34]Paulding County5-AAAAAA0-064.6816.706.07
143 [11]South Atlanta6-AA0-064.5018.528.07
144 [19]Greater Atlanta Christian6-AAAAA0-064.2716.296.07
145 [37]Meadowcreek7-AAAAAAA0-064.0617.787.77
146 [20]Cass7-AAAAA0-064.0215.515.54
147 [16]Adairsville6-AAA0-063.9418.378.47
148 [12]Cook1-AA0-063.9417.697.81
149 [20]Baldwin2-AAAA0-063.9216.776.90
150 [1]Bowdon7-A Division II0-063.9017.547.69
151 [21]Central (Carrollton)7-AAAA0-063.7416.927.22
152 [22]Pace Academy5-AAAA0-063.7316.446.75
153 [35]Etowah6-AAAAAA0-063.6714.915.29
154 [23]New Hampstead3-AAAA0-063.6719.219.60
155 [38]Peachtree Ridge7-AAAAAAA0-063.5415.165.67
156 [13]Putnam County4-AA0-063.3515.636.32
157 [14]Dodge County1-AA0-063.2216.036.85
158 [10]Elbert County8-A Division I0-062.9916.807.86
159 [21]Winder-Barrow8-AAAAA0-062.8915.736.89
160 [2]Schley County6-A Division II0-062.7815.026.28
161 [17]Mary Persons2-AAA0-062.5916.217.67
162 [22]Lithia Springs5-AAAAA0-062.3316.708.42
163 [24]Griffin2-AAAA0-062.3116.568.30
164 [18]Hebron Christian8-AAA0-062.1017.179.11
165 [3]Clinch County2-A Division II0-062.1015.917.86
166 [23]Union Grove2-AAAAA0-061.9713.305.38
167 [25]Spalding2-AAAA0-061.4715.087.66
168 [24]Statesboro1-AAAAA0-061.2815.608.37
169 [25]Tucker4-AAAAA0-061.2214.597.42
170 [26]Southwest DeKalb6-AAAA0-061.2115.087.93
171 [27]Riverdale4-AAAA0-061.1015.308.24
172 [4]Early County1-A Division II0-061.0714.137.11
173 [28]Northwest Whitfield7-AAAA0-061.0616.399.38
174 [36]Evans2-AAAAAA0-060.8815.218.38
175 [29]Sonoraville7-AAAA0-060.7415.558.86
176 [11]Lamar County4-A Division I0-060.7214.928.25
177 [30]Heritage (Ringgold)7-AAAA0-060.6814.728.09
178 [26]Decatur4-AAAAA0-060.6116.159.59
179 [2]St. Anne-PacelliGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-060.6112.686.12
180 [15]Fannin County7-AA0-060.5214.417.94
181 [37]East Paulding5-AAAAAA0-060.0115.299.33
182 [27]Villa Rica5-AAAAA0-059.8414.668.87
183 [38]Riverwood4-AAAAAA0-059.8315.329.53
184 [19]Ringgold6-AAA0-059.8214.148.36
185 [20]Jackson2-AAA0-059.7014.789.13
186 [21]Wesleyan7-AAA0-059.6512.847.24
187 [39]Wheeler5-AAAAAAA0-059.5212.917.43
188 [40]Central Gwinnett8-AAAAAAA0-059.4613.848.43
189 [12]Whitefield Academy6-A Division I0-059.4313.117.72
190 [3]Stratford AcademyGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-059.0813.728.69
191 [16]North Murray7-AA0-058.9917.3212.38
192 [39]Mundy's Mill3-AAAAAA0-058.7013.078.42
193 [40]Habersham Central8-AAAAAA0-058.4114.149.78
194 [28]Northside (Columbus)3-AAAAA0-058.3814.6010.26
195 [17]Washington County4-AA0-058.3514.9610.66
196 [29]Centennial6-AAAAA0-058.3214.259.97
197 [30]Maynard Jackson5-AAAAA0-058.1712.278.15
198 [13]Commerce8-A Division I0-058.0213.099.12
199 [31]Northgate3-AAAAA0-058.0012.308.35
200 [31]Cedar Shoals8-AAAA0-057.8713.569.73
201 [32]Hiram7-AAAAA0-057.8616.5512.74
202 [22]Morgan County4-AAA0-057.8013.719.96
203 [5]Wilcox County4-A Division II0-057.6915.1611.51
204 [18]Worth County1-AA0-057.6914.8211.18
205 [32]Miller Grove6-AAAA0-057.6512.939.33
206 [33]Jenkins1-AAAAA0-057.6512.919.31
207 [23]Harlem4-AAA0-057.6412.619.02
208 [24]Liberty County3-AAA0-057.5712.599.07
209 [33]Madison County8-AAAA0-057.5013.379.92
210 [19]North Cobb Christian6-AA0-057.4011.147.79
211 [41]Jonesboro3-AAAAAA0-057.4011.748.39
212 [4]Tattnall SquareGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-057.3614.5811.27
213 [14]Heard County4-A Division I0-057.1812.399.26
214 [42]Pope7-AAAAAA0-057.1413.2210.13
215 [6]Charlton County2-A Division II0-056.9813.1410.22
216 [34]Westside (Macon)2-AAAA0-056.9713.4310.51
217 [7]Johnson County5-A Division II0-056.9612.649.73
218 [15]St. Francis6-A Division I0-056.8612.449.62
219 [25]Upson-Lee2-AAA0-056.8113.5110.74
220 [20]Jeff Davis1-AA0-056.6911.729.07
221 [8]Lincoln County8-A Division II0-056.6713.1010.47
222 [26]White County7-AAA0-056.6214.1611.59
223 [43]Jackson County8-AAAAAA0-056.5511.819.31
224 [41]Campbell2-AAAAAAA0-056.5211.839.37
225 [34]Banneker5-AAAAA0-056.4111.809.44
226 [21]Vidalia3-AA0-056.3912.309.97
227 [42]Forsyth Central6-AAAAAAA0-056.3212.3010.03
228 [35]Cherokee Bluff8-AAAA0-056.1711.959.83
229 [22]Toombs County3-AA0-056.1011.819.76
230 [16]Trion7-A Division I0-056.0213.7611.80
231 [36]West Laurens2-AAAA0-056.0111.139.17
232 [9]McIntosh County Academy3-A Division II0-055.7510.538.83
233 [17]Mount Pisgah Christian6-A Division I0-055.7113.8812.22
234 [10]Manchester6-A Division II0-055.5311.099.60
235 [35]Harris County3-AAAAA0-055.5111.5310.06
236 [5]BrookstoneGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-055.4912.5311.09
237 [36]Chamblee4-AAAAA0-055.4312.9811.60
238 [27]Bremen6-AAA0-055.4210.699.31
239 [23]Columbia5-AA0-055.4110.819.45
240 [24]Haralson County7-AA0-055.3912.4811.14
241 [37]Woodland (Stockbridge)5-AAAA0-055.3811.5410.22
242 [44]Lassiter7-AAAAAA0-055.1911.5510.41
243 [18]Mount Vernon6-A Division I0-054.7812.8312.10
244 [38]North Hall8-AAAA0-054.7611.7411.03
245 [39]Southeast Bulloch3-AAAA0-054.6811.6411.01
246 [28]Monroe1-AAA0-054.5910.7910.25
247 [19]Jefferson County2-A Division I0-054.5011.9611.51
248 [11]Christian Heritage7-A Division II0-054.4811.2110.78
249 [25]Laney4-AA0-054.468.938.52
250 [40]Walnut Grove8-AAAA0-054.459.989.57
251 [37]Eagle's Landing2-AAAAA0-054.3712.8612.54
252 [12]Washington-Wilkes8-A Division II0-054.1511.8911.79
253 [26]Union County8-AA0-054.1411.8311.74
254 [29]Pickens7-AAA0-054.1010.8910.83
255 [41]Hampton5-AAAA0-054.1012.0411.99
256 [45]South Effingham2-AAAAAA0-053.9611.2011.30
257 [13]Macon County6-A Division II0-053.9112.1212.26
258 [20]Pepperell7-A Division I0-053.8510.8011.00
259 [27]Berrien1-AA0-053.8512.4212.62
260 [42]Howard2-AAAA0-053.5810.1110.58
261 [46]Alcovy3-AAAAAA0-053.5011.9612.51
262 [6]First PresbyterianGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-053.4311.8512.47
263 [43]Hardaway1-AAAA0-053.1210.7011.63
264 [44]Westover1-AAAA0-053.0710.4711.45
265 [14]Emanuel County Institute3-A Division II0-053.0611.8012.79
266 [43]Duluth7-AAAAAAA0-052.9711.5212.61
267 [15]Aquinas8-A Division II0-052.9011.4812.63
268 [38]Arabia Mountain4-AAAAA0-052.688.459.81
269 [21]Pelham1-A Division I0-052.6210.5912.02
270 [16]Turner County2-A Division II0-052.4012.0813.73
271 [30]Savannah Country Day3-AAA0-052.3910.3011.96
272 [39]Chapel Hill5-AAAAA0-052.319.3911.14
273 [47]Lakeside (Evans)2-AAAAAA0-052.159.1411.04
274 [22]Social Circle5-A Division I0-052.0710.3212.30
275 [28]Tattnall County3-AA0-051.939.1211.24
276 [48]Grovetown2-AAAAAA0-051.9210.4012.53
277 [29]Model7-AA0-051.798.6310.89
278 [31]Hephzibah4-AAA0-051.7611.4113.70
279 [49]New Manchester5-AAAAAA0-051.738.7211.04
280 [50]Apalachee8-AAAAAA0-051.479.2111.79
281 [17]Dooly County4-A Division II0-051.088.9911.95
282 [18]Telfair County4-A Division II0-050.1610.6114.50
283 [44]Discovery7-AAAAAAA0-049.907.6211.78
284 [32]Douglass5-AAA0-049.877.4011.57
285 [40]McIntosh3-AAAAA0-049.3310.5515.27
286 [19]Chattahoochee County6-A Division II0-049.287.6812.45
287 [45]Luella5-AAAA0-049.246.1110.92
288 [33]Long County3-AAA0-049.079.9614.94
289 [20]Mitchell County1-A Division II0-048.958.0613.16
290 [30]Sumter County1-AA0-048.858.9414.14
291 [34]Coahulla Creek6-AAA0-048.839.0014.22
292 [46]Fayette County4-AAAA0-048.797.4912.75
293 [21]Lanier County2-A Division II0-048.548.4914.00
294 [41]Chattahoochee6-AAAAA0-048.519.0814.62
295 [45]Osborne5-AAAAAAA0-048.467.6613.25
296 [51]Woodstock6-AAAAAA0-048.419.5315.17
297 [23]Temple4-A Division I0-048.209.3215.17
298 [47]McDonough5-AAAA0-048.028.5814.61
299 [42]Greenbrier1-AAAAA0-047.857.8114.01
300 [31]Mount Paran Christian6-AA0-047.587.8714.35
301 [35]Gilmer7-AAA0-047.468.8215.40
302 [36]Lumpkin County7-AAA0-047.438.9115.52
303 [1]Central Fellowship ChristianGIAA Region 6-AA0-047.399.2515.91
304 [24]Screven County3-A Division I0-047.236.3713.18
305 [2]Brentwood SchoolGIAA Region 2-AA0-047.118.9215.86
306 [52]Dunwoody4-AAAAAA0-046.997.9014.96
307 [22]Mount Zion (Carroll)7-A Division II0-046.928.0415.17
308 [7]Pinewood ChristianGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-046.859.4416.63
309 [8]Brookwood SchoolGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-046.779.2616.54
310 [48]Chestatee8-AAAA0-046.549.5717.08
311 [37]Johnson (Savannah)3-AAA0-046.526.8214.35
312 [9]Deerfield-WindsorGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-046.447.0414.65
313 [38]Columbus1-AAA0-046.3710.1017.78
314 [25]Athens Christian8-A Division I0-046.259.4717.27
315 [23]Jenkins County3-A Division II0-046.176.3714.25
316 [39]LaFayette6-AAA0-046.057.4315.43
317 [32]Brantley County3-AA0-045.956.5614.66
318 [53]Morrow3-AAAAAA0-045.837.9216.13
319 [40]Richmond Academy4-AAA0-045.714.6312.97
320 [33]East Jackson8-AA0-045.696.9515.31
321 [26]Dade County7-A Division I0-045.677.4915.86
322 [10]Westfield SchoolGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-045.659.5817.99
323 [24]Montgomery County3-A Division II0-045.286.6815.44
324 [54]South Cobb4-AAAAAA0-045.248.1516.95
325 [43]Bradwell Institute1-AAAAA0-044.946.4415.55
326 [34]Washington6-AA0-044.885.4014.57
327 [41]Gordon Lee6-AAA0-044.886.7715.95
328 [44]Woodland (Cartersville)7-AAAAA0-044.706.1515.50
329 [45]M.L. King4-AAAAA0-044.216.2116.05
330 [35]Spencer2-AA0-044.165.1014.98
331 [46]Heritage (Conyers)8-AAAAA0-044.136.6216.54
332 [11]Frederica AcademyGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-044.116.2816.21
333 [36]Windsor Forest3-AA0-044.004.5514.61
334 [25]Warren County8-A Division II0-043.916.2916.43
335 [37]Landmark Christian5-AA0-043.874.0614.24
336 [42]Pike County2-AAA0-043.667.4017.79
337 [47]Lithonia4-AAAAA0-043.575.4715.95
338 [38]Central (Macon)2-AA0-043.424.2114.84
339 [12]George Walton AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-043.356.4117.11
340 [13]Mount de SalesGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-043.175.4516.32
341 [26]Atkinson County2-A Division II0-043.166.2917.18
342 [39]Banks County8-AA0-043.135.1516.06
343 [49]Islands3-AAAA0-042.493.0514.61
344 [40]Westside (Augusta)4-AA0-042.212.3914.23
345 [1]Thomas JeffersonGIAA Region 2-A0-042.184.4216.29
346 [50]Shaw1-AAAA0-041.883.8716.04
347 [14]Terrell AcademyGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-041.834.7716.99
348 [15]Valwood SchoolGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-041.335.2918.01
349 [27]Chattooga7-A Division I0-041.145.2918.20
350 [27]Wheeler County4-A Division II0-041.125.0017.93
351 [28]Jasper County5-A Division I0-041.043.5616.57
352 [28]Terrell County1-A Division II0-040.494.2717.83
353 [48]Tri-Cities5-AAAAA0-040.192.6116.47
354 [29]Greene County8-A Division II0-040.165.2419.13
355 [49]Locust Grove2-AAAAA0-040.053.8717.86
356 [3]Gatewood SchoolGIAA Region 2-AA0-039.944.7918.90
357 [50]Drew3-AAAAA0-039.622.5516.98
358 [41]Providence Christian8-AA0-039.547.1621.67
359 [43]Franklin County8-AAA0-039.523.4517.98
360 [29]Oglethorpe County5-A Division I0-039.404.6419.29
361 [30]Bacon County1-A Division I0-039.204.0818.93
362 [31]East Laurens2-A Division I0-039.195.2920.15
363 [51]East Forsyth8-AAAA0-039.143.7718.68
364 [42]ACE Charter2-AA0-039.126.2021.12
365 [44]Salem4-AAA0-038.892.4917.65
366 [51]North Springs6-AAAAA0-038.832.4117.62
367 [30]Miller County1-A Division II0-038.791.7016.96
368 [32]Bryan County3-A Division I0-038.713.9519.29
369 [33]Claxton3-A Division I0-038.693.1818.54
370 [43]Southwest2-AA0-038.314.1019.84
371 [16]Tiftarea AcademyGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-038.025.1421.16
372 [31]Georgia Military Prep5-A Division II0-037.981.6817.76
373 [17]Heritage (Newnan)GIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-037.772.2718.55
374 [44]Rutland2-AA0-037.593.2719.74
375 [45]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6-AAA0-037.543.3319.85
376 [46]Ridgeland6-AAA0-037.493.1819.74
377 [52]Stone Mountain6-AAAA †0-037.353.0719.77
378 [32]Hancock Central5-A Division II0-036.842.1319.34
379 [55]Rockdale County3-AAAAAA0-036.843.0920.30
380 [56]Forest Park3-AAAAAA0-036.782.2119.49
381 [33]Seminole County1-A Division II0-036.761.7219.01
382 [52]Midtown5-AAAAA †0-036.691.2718.63
383 [4]Briarwood AcademyGIAA Region 4-AA0-036.671.3318.71
384 [53]Northview6-AAAAA0-036.662.6620.05
385 [34]Marion County6-A Division II0-036.490.2617.81
386 [18]Bulloch AcademyGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-036.393.0020.66
387 [47]West Hall7-AAA0-036.311.1518.90
388 [57]Lakeside (Atlanta)4-AAAAAA †0-035.921.5719.70
389 [48]Beach3-AAA0-035.902.0320.18
390 [35]Wilkinson County5-A Division II0-035.88-0.4217.75
391 [36]Taylor County6-A Division II0-035.471.9820.56
392 [37]Greenville6-A Division II0-035.162.2321.12
393 [19]Bethlehem Christian AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-034.941.4720.58
394 [53]Southeast Whitfield7-AAAA0-034.792.2621.53
395 [45]Redan5-AA0-034.362.9722.66
396 [20]Southland AcademyGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-034.330.2019.92
397 [54]East Hall8-AAAA0-034.243.7723.58
398 [46]Therrell6-AA0-033.830.7821.00
399 [34]Armuchee7-A Division I0-033.640.4520.86
400 [38]Hawkinsville4-A Division II0-033.491.1021.66
401 [35]Coosa7-A Division I0-032.34-0.6621.04
402 [39]Towns County8-A Division II0-031.820.1322.36
403 [21]Strong Rock ChristianGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-031.13-0.1022.82
404 [47]Murray County7-AA0-031.10-0.6722.27
405 [55]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)5-AAAA0-030.90-1.8421.31
406 [40]Portal3-A Division II0-030.39-0.8322.83
407 [5]Edmund Burke AcademyGIAA Region 4-AA0-030.33-1.7022.02
408 [36]Crawford County4-A Division I0-029.942.9827.09
409 [6]Piedmont AcademyGIAA Region 2-AA0-029.911.0725.20
410 [1]Cherokee ChristianGAPPS Region 1-AA0-029.87-1.1723.01
411 [22]Lakeview AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-029.64-0.0624.35
412 [41]Treutlen4-A Division II0-029.290.4425.19
413 [23]St. Andrew's SchoolGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-029.06-2.7322.26
414 [46]Berkmar7-AAAAAAA0-028.75-2.7022.59
415 [48]Butler4-AA0-028.70-2.4822.86
416 [7]Southwest Georgia AcademyGIAA Region 3-AA0-028.49-0.7224.85
417 [37]King's Ridge Christian6-A Division I †0-028.24-2.0523.76
418 [49]B.E.S.T. Academy6-AA0-028.14-3.1422.78
419 [50]Josey4-AA0-027.44-1.9024.71
420 [51]Towers5-AA0-026.35-4.3823.33
421 [52]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6-AA0-026.11-2.7325.20
422 [2]Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA Region 2-A0-026.070.4628.44
423 [53]Gordon Central7-AA0-025.86-1.7926.40
424 [8]Augusta PrepGIAA Region 4-AA0-025.70-2.5525.80
425 [56]North Clayton4-AAAA0-024.88-5.6423.52
426 [54]McNair5-AA0-024.46-3.6225.97
427 [57]Druid Hills6-AAAA †0-023.96-4.0026.09
428 [2]Skipstone AcademyGAPPS Region 2-AA0-023.83-5.0025.22
429 [3]King's AcademyGAPPS Region 1-AA0-023.57-5.1325.36
430 [49]Cross Creek4-AAA0-023.53-5.4425.07
431 [4]Calvary ChristianGAPPS Region 2-AA0-023.28-2.2728.50
432 [9]Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA Region 6-AA0-023.21-2.1528.69
433 [24]Loganville ChristianGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-022.93-5.3025.82
434 [55]Glenn Hills4-AA0-022.60-5.2526.19
435 [56]Kendrick2-AA0-022.13-5.5426.37
436 [42]Randolph-Clay1-A Division II0-020.90-6.7026.44
437 [58]Johnson (Gainesville)8-AAAA †0-020.08-6.0327.94
438 [59]Seckinger8-AAAA †0-020.06-7.0026.99
439 [5]Creekside ChristianGAPPS Region 2-AA0-019.12-5.9828.95
440 [43]Pataula Charter1-A Division II †0-018.93-3.9431.18
441 [6]Pinecrest AcademyGAPPS Region 1-AA0-018.88-6.8628.31
442 [50]Groves3-AAA0-018.26-7.7828.01
443 [44]Glascock County5-A Division II0-017.79-4.0032.26
444 [57]Walker6-AA †0-017.57-6.9129.57
445 [25]Riverside Military AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-016.83-7.9029.31
446 [38]Savannah3-A Division I0-015.80-9.0829.16
447 [58]Jordan2-AA0-015.29-7.8830.88
448 [60]Clarkston6-AAAA †0-014.83-9.5129.72
449 [10]Georgia ChristianGIAA Region 3-AA0-014.80-8.4430.81
450 [7]Lanier ChristianGAPPS Region 1-AA0-014.71-7.0732.27
451 [8]Community ChristianGAPPS Region 2-AA0-013.60-9.8730.58
452 [45]Twiggs County5-A Division II0-012.98-7.6833.40
453 [3]Flint River AcademyGIAA Region 1-A0-012.37-10.3231.35
454 [4]Memorial DayGIAA Region 2-A0-011.94-8.4033.71
455 [5]Fullington AcademyGIAA Region 1-A0-011.31-8.9933.75
456 [46]Lake Oconee Academy8-A Division II †0-09.98-11.3632.70
457 [47]Baconton Charter1-A Division II0-07.60-13.2333.22
458 [9]Rock Springs ChristianGAPPS Region 2-AA0-06.39-13.3634.30
459 [48]Central (Talbotton)6-A Division II0-05.91-13.0135.13
460 [6]Harvester ChristianGIAA Region 1-A0-02.24-14.1737.64
461 [49]Southwest Georgia STEM1-A Division II †0-0-1.93-16.0439.94
462 [11]St. Mary's AcademyGIAA Region 1-AA0-0-1.94-16.9639.03
463 [7]Grace ChristianGIAA Region 1-A0-0-8.32-20.4441.92
464 [12]Notre Dame AcademyGIAA Region 1-AA0-0-8.36-20.7641.65
465 [54]Cross Keys4-AAAAA †0-0-14.05-22.6645.44
466 [50]GSIC8-A Division II †0-0-17.57-23.3448.28



† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating,” which is the mode of the Extreme Value Type I Distribution (i.e., the Gumbel minimum distribution) applied to the ratings. This calculation favors regions with large numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Teams Comp Rating Avg Rating
18-AAAAAAA689.1482.14
21-AAAAAAA588.7184.40
34-AAAAAAA685.2782.05
42-AAAAAAA584.5978.69
56-AAAAAAA682.8877.60
65-AAA481.7474.77
71-AAAAAA681.3377.04
83-AAAAAAA581.0979.12
95-AAAAAAA680.7072.60
106-AAAAAA776.0770.54
117-AAAAAA775.8369.77
125-AAAAAA874.9069.28
137-AAAAA674.6667.37
142-AAAAA773.4766.09
151-AAAAA673.4164.38
163-AAAA672.9465.48
178-AAA672.5866.67
181-A Division I471.1862.71
197-AAAAAAA770.6161.41
208-AAAAAA770.4765.42
218-AAAAA770.4165.78
221-AAA670.1364.89
237-AAAA668.4261.10
244-AAAA867.9861.36
254-AAAAAA667.8563.24
268-A Division I467.7061.62
271-AAAA567.1459.90
282-A Division I566.7360.87
292-AAAAAA766.1061.45
302-AAAA765.8361.71
311-AA765.8160.63
323-AA765.0858.39
332-AAA564.8659.69
345-AAAAA863.7559.80
356-AAAAA763.5956.43
365-A Division I463.5853.97
373-AAAAAA863.1655.21
38GIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA562.4057.28
396-AAAA660.6364.98
405-AAAA860.1854.63
418-AA659.9953.56
427-AA759.0551.24
437-A Division II358.6855.10
443-AAA857.7049.98
457-AAA757.0452.55
464-AA856.0946.76
478-AAAA955.9953.49
482-A Division II555.9452.63
496-A Division I455.7956.70
505-AA755.6746.46
513-AAAAA555.5352.17
524-A Division I454.5349.01
536-AAA854.0449.25
544-AAAAA652.8952.95
557-A Division I752.7646.92
56GIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA551.7746.13
574-AAA651.5045.89
583-A Division I550.9042.06
593-A Division II550.3046.13
606-A Division II849.4541.82
614-A Division II648.8843.81
626-AA747.8443.20
632-AA845.3238.12
648-A Division II644.4846.60
65GIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA643.8241.45
66GIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA442.6039.10
67GIAA Region 2-AA342.4438.99
68GIAA Region 6-AA241.2935.30
695-A Division II640.5033.07
701-A Division II739.6136.37
71GIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA534.2229.54
72GIAA Region 4-AA333.2430.90
73GIAA Region 2-A333.2126.73
74GIAA Region 3-AA225.0521.64
75GAPPS Region 1-AA424.7021.76
76GAPPS Region 2-AA520.5717.24
77GIAA Region 1-A48.394.40
78GIAA Region 1-AA2-3.54-5.15

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Favorite Underdog Score Diff Prob Likelihood

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Prob
99.9610/13BufordMill Creek - 0.2050.6%
97.6209/01BufordNorth Cobb - 3.9661.6%
95.1109/22MiltonNorth Cobb - 1.2653.8%
93.3509/15Mill CreekCedar Grove - 8.8074.0%
93.2109/22Colquitt CountyCedar Grove - 7.2470.3%
92.6609/08Colquitt CountyLee County - 7.8571.8%
92.4510/06North CobbWalton - 5.5365.9%
92.3009/08MiltonRoswell - 3.2259.5%
91.8508/18CarrolltonHughes - 4.5063.1%
91.4209/08Ware CountyBenedictine - 1.7555.2%
91.1408/19GraysonWalton - 1.2353.7%
91.0909/01CarrolltonRome - 3.3759.9%
90.6208/18North CobbWestlake - 7.6871.4%
90.4909/01Cedar GroveWestlake - 1.0753.2%
90.4310/20CarrolltonWestlake - 6.2667.8%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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