Four weeks remain in the regular season. Below are the Maxwell Ratings’ chances of each team winning their region. Teams with less than a 0.1% chance are not included. Here are some of the more intriguing region races and Maxwell favorites.
*Given less than a 1% chance in preseason, Bryan County (6-1, 1-0) of Region 3-A Division I is now a 93.4% pick to win its first title in history. That’s after beating defending champion Metter 21-20 last week, avenging a 30-0 loss from 2022. Bryan County fielded its first team in 1976. The Redskins also are positioned to earn their first home playoff game in history.
*Lumpkin County (7-0, 3-0) stands an 87.3% chance of winning its first region championship. Given a 7.7% chance in preseason, the Indians are now the only team without a region loss in Region 7-3A. Lumpkin started varsity football in 1961.
*Mount Vernon (5-2, 0-0) is favored at 82% to win its first region title in history, even if no games have been played in the four-team Region 6-A Division I. Mount Vernon is 6-2 against the classification’s 13th-toughest schedule, and Maxwell ranks the Mustangs No. 7 in the class. The other three region teams have losing records.
*North Cobb Christian (5-2, 3-0) has a 96.7% chance to win its first region title in history. The Eagles are the only team without a loss in Region 6-2A and play defending champion South Atlanta (3-4, 2-1) on Friday.
*Jenkins County (75.8%) can win its first region title since 1960. The Eagles (7-0, 1-0) were given a 9.5% chance in preseason. They beat defending Region 3-A Division II champion McIntosh County Academy 47-0 last week.
*Telfair County (91.1%) appears to be closing in on its first region title since 1993. The Trojans (6-0, 2-0) beat defending Region 4-A Division II champion Wilcox County 29-15 last week. They were given an 18.1% chance in preseason.
*Effingham County, without a title since 1995, is the favorite in Region 2-6A. Given a 9.5% chance to win in preseason, the Rebels now have a 42.1% chance in a region that includes preseason favorite and defending champion Brunswick (35.2%) and Glynn Academy (14.4%). Effingham has beaten Glynn, and Glynn has beaten Brunswick. Effingham plays Brunswick on Nov. 3.
*Toombs County (85.2%) is ranked No. 1 in Class 2A in the Maxwell Ratings and is favored to win its first region title since 2000. That could change quickly, though, if the Bulldogs don’t win Friday at home against No. 4 Pierce County as No. 3 Pierce County and Vidalia remain in contention in deep Region 3.
*With a 98% chance to close the deal, Douglas County is approaching its first region title since 2002. The Tigers are the only team with no region losses in 5-6A. Douglas County’s chances were only 6.3% in preseason, but a 30-27 victory over defending Class 6A champion Hughes on Sept. 22 did wonders for those odds.
*Spalding (7-0, 3-0) – given only a 4.1% chance in preseason – is favored to win its first region title since 2003. The Region 2-4A championship is likely to come down to an Oct. 27 game against Perry (6-1, 3-0), the defending champion. Both are in the top five of the Class 4A composite rankings.
*Trion (6-0, 2-0) has an 82.1% chance to win its first region title since 2003, though Darlington (5-2, 3-0) and Pepperell (3-3, 2-0) also have no region losses.
*Northeast (99.2%) appears to be a cinch to win Region 2-2A. That would be the Raiders’ first title since 2009.
*Northgate and Harris County rank 2-3 this week on GHSF Daily’s Improvement Tracker for Class 5A, and one is almost certainly going to win Region 3. Northgate, given a 57.3% chance of winning, can win its first region title since 2011. Harris County (41.8%) has won only two region titles in its 68 seasons, none since 2014. A year ago in this region, Northside of Columbus won its first title in history in its 19th varsity season. Harris County beat Northside 27-7 last week.
*Central of Carrollton is 96.7% pick to win its first region title since 2014 and second in more than 35 years. Central, given only a 3.6% chance in preseason, has avenged its two 2022 region losses (Cedartown, Sonoraville) the past two weeks, although Northwest Whitfield (6-1, 2-0) remains a threat.
*No. 1 Coffee of Region 1-5A is the favorite at 76%, and a region title would be the Trojans’ second in 20 years, first since 2015. But their final regular-season game is at No. 6 Ware County, the defending region and state champion.
*Newton’s chances of 82.2% seem a bit optimistic given the presence of No. 7 Parkview in Region 4-7A, but the evidence of scores goes Newton’s way. A region title would be Newton’s third in history, first since 2015. Newton was picked to finish fourth in preseason with a 3.5% chance of winning the region. Parkview is at Newton on Oct. 20.
*Region 4-5A is nearly a tossup between Arabia Mountain (58.5%) and Tucker (41.5%) percent. Those DeKalb County schools play Aug. 3. Both last won region titles in 2017. Decatur won this region last season, breaking an 18-year region drought, but Tucker (4-3, 2-0) and Arabia Mountain (6-1, 2-0) have beaten the Bulldogs in consecutive weeks and stand alone at the top of the region.
*Following its first back-to-back losing seasons since 2008-09, Greater Atlanta Christian is 6-0, 2-0, and given a 60.3% chance to win Region 6-5A after beating defending champion Cambridge 30-3 last week. But the Spartans likely must win at Kell (39%) on Oct. 20. They are the only 2-0 teams in the region. GAC was given a 7.8% chance of winning the region in preseason.
*Not so much history in this one, but maximum intrigue: Jones County (5-2, 3-0) and Warner Robins (4-3, 3-0) are the only teams with no region losses in Region 2-5A. Maxwell gives Jones County a 58.9% of winning despite losing its quarterback, Miami-committed senior Judd Anderson, to Warner Robins in an unusual midseason transfer two weeks into the season. But Jones County has won four straight games, and its new quarterback, Devin Edmonds, threw six TD passes in a 48-17 rout of 10th-ranked Ola last week. The two contenders meet Oct. 27 in Warner Robins.
Championship odds, by region:
Region 1-7A
96.6% - Colquitt County
2.2% - Valdosta
1.1% - Camden County
0.1% - Richmond Hill
Region 2-7A
55.7% - Carrollton
44.2% - Westlake
0.1% - East Coweta
Region 3-7A
57.2% - McEachern
23.8% - North Paulding
15.2% - Marietta
3.7% - Harrison
0.1% - Hillgrove
Region 4-7A
82.2% - Newton
13.6% - Parkview
3.3% - Grayson
0.8% - Archer
Region 5-7A
98.7% - Walton
0.8% - North Cobb
0.4% - Wheeler
Region 6-7A
56.4% - Milton
36.0% - Lambert
7.5% - West Forsyth
0.1% - Denmark
Region 7-7A
51.4% - Norcross
32.9% - North Gwinnett
15.6% - Peachtree Ridge
Region 8-7A
60.5% - Mill Creek
39.4% - Buford
0.1% - Mountain View
Region 1-6A
71.8% - Thomas County Central
25.5% - Lee County
2.6% - Houston County
Region 2-6A
42.1% - Effingham County
35.2% - Brunswick
14.4% - Glynn Academy
8.2% - Evans
Region 3-6A
96.8% - Woodward Academy
3.1% - Mundy’s Mill
0.1% - Jonesboro
Region 4-6A
73.2% - Marist
26.8% - North Atlanta
Region 5-6A
98.0% - Douglas County
2.0% - Hughes
Region 6-6A
86.8% - Rome
12.8% - Creekview
0.4% - Sequoyah
Region 7-6A
95.3% - Roswell
2.9% - Blessed Trinity
1.9% - Alpharetta
Region 8-6A
99.6% - Gainesville
0.3% - North Forsyth
0.1% - Lanier
Region 1-5A
76.0% - Coffee
24.0% - Ware County
Region 2-5A
58.9% - Jones County
40.3% - Warner Robins
0.7% - Dutchtown
Region 3-5A
57.3% - Northgate
41.8% - Harris County
0.4% - McIntosh
0.4% - Northside (Columbus)
0.1% - Drew
Region 4-5A
58.5% - Arabia Mountain
41.5% - Tucker
Region 5-5A
89.8% - Creekside
5.8% - Villa Rica
4.4% - Mays
Region 6-5A
60.3% - Greater Atlanta Christian
39.0% - Kell
0.7% - Cambridge
Region 7-5A
74.0% - Cartersville
16.8% - Calhoun
8.2% - Hiram
0.9% - Dalton
0.1% - Cass
Region 8-5A
73.1% - Jefferson
19.7% - Eastside
7.2% - Flowery Branch
Region 1-4A
72.7% - Bainbridge
27.3% - Cairo
Region 2-4A
61.2% - Spalding
38.8% - Perry
0.1% - Baldwin
Region 3-4A
97.9% - Benedictine
2.0% - Wayne County
Region 4-4A
55.0% - Trinity Christian
24.2% - Troup
19.1% - Starr’s Mill
1.7% - LaGrange
Region 5-4A
98.0% - Stockbridge
2.0% - Pace Academy
Region 6-4A
45.3% - Hapeville Charter
23.2% - Holy Innocents’
19.8% - Westminster
10.3% - Stephenson
1.3% - Miller Grove
Region 7-4A
96.7% - Central (Carrollton)
2.3% - Northwest Whitfield
0.9% - Cedartown
Region 8-4A
100.0% - North Oconee
Region 1-3A
62.4% - Carver (Columbus)
12.8% - Monroe
12.4% - Crisp County
11.8% - Thomasville
0.5% - Dougherty
Region 2-3A
93.2% - Mary Persons
4.4% - Peach County
2.4% - Upson-Lee
Region 3-3A
99.4% - Calvary Day
0.6% - Savannah Christian
Region 4-3A
67.1% - Morgan County
32.5% - Harlem
0.4% - Hephzibah
Region 5-3A
86.2% - Cedar Grove
10.1% - Sandy Creek
2.9% - Carver (Atlanta)
0.8% - Douglass
Region 6-3A
67.2% - Adairsville
30.5% - Bremen
1.3% - Coahulla Creek
1.1% - Gordon Lee
Region 7-3A
87.3% - Lumpkin County
11.3% - White County
0.8% - Wesleyan
0.6% - Dawson County
Region 8-3A
97.3% - Stephens County
1.6% - Hart County
0.9% - Oconee County
0.1% - Monroe Area
Region 1-2A
50.9% - Fitzgerald
48.0% - Cook
0.6% - Sumter County
0.4% - Jeff Davis
0.1% - Worth County
Region 2-2A
99.2% - Northeast
0.7% - Spencer
Region 3-2A
85.2% - Toombs County
14.6% - Pierce County
0.2% - Appling County
Region 4-2A
96.0% - Thomson
3.0% - Putnam County
0.9% - Laney
Region 5-2A
92.6% - Callaway
3.7% - Eagle’s Landing Christian
3.6% - Columbia
Region 6-2A
96.7% - North Cobb Christian
2.8% - Therrell
0.5% - South Atlanta
Region 7-2A
93.9% - Rockmart
4.1% - North Murray
1.5% - Fannin County
0.5% - Model
Region 8-2A
59.2% - Athens Academy
26.8% - Fellowship Christian
12.4% - Union County
1.0% - East Jackson
0.6% - Providence Christian
Region 1-A Division I
35.6% - Brooks County
28.3% - Irwin County
27.6% - Bacon County
8.5% - Pelham
Region 2-A Division I
81.5% - Swainsboro
16.9% - Bleckley County
1.5% - Dublin
Region 3-A Division I
93.4% - Bryan County
4.4% - Metter
2.2% - Screven County
Region 4-A Division I
74.8% - Lamar County
24.2% - Temple
1.1% - Heard County
Region 5-A Division I
99.3% - Prince Avenue Christian
0.5% - Jasper County
0.1% - Oglethorpe County
0.1% - Social Circle
Region 6-A Division I
82.0% - Mount Vernon
12.6% - Whitefield Academy
4.9% - St. Francis
0.5% - Mount Pisgah Christian
Region 7-A Division I
82.1% - Trion
14.4% - Darlington
3.5% - Pepperell
0.1% - Armuchee
Region 8-A Division I
61.2% - Rabun County
26.3% - Elbert County
12.5% - Commerce
Region 1-A Division II
100% - Early County has clinched
Region 2-A Division II
95.6% - Clinch County
3.5% - Charlton County
0.5% - Turner County
0.4% - Lanier County
Region 3-A Division II
75.8% - Jenkins County
19.2% - Emanuel County Institute
4.7% - Portal
0.3% - McIntosh County Academy
Region 4-A Division II
91.1% - Telfair County
8.1% - Dooly County
0.8% - Wilcox County
0.1% - Hawkinsville
Region 5-A Division II
83.7% - Johnson County
10.7% - Hancock Central
4.8% - Wilkinson County
0.9% - Glascock County
Region 6-A Division II
74.3% - Schley County
25.7% - Manchester
Region 7-A Division II
96.0% - Bowdon
3.8% - Christian Heritage
0.2% - Mount Zion (Carroll)
Region 8-A Division II
77.2% - Greene County
19.3% - Aquinas
3.0% - Lincoln County
0.5% - Washington-Wilkes
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