Never pick against Buford.
That has been my No. 1 rule in seven seasons of predicting the winners of high school football games for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and it has served me well. In that time, the Wolves are 87-4 (not including two forfeit losses last season), which is a winning percentage of .956.
But sometimes rules are broken, and this is one of those times.
Gainesville brings in a high-powered offense that averaged 45.3 points last season in winning the Class AAAAA championship and scored 58 against Class AAAAAA West Forsyth in its opener last week. Quarterback Deshaun Watson, who holds the state career records for passing yardage and touchdowns, is less than 300 yards from becoming the first 10,000-yard passer in state history.
But Buford brings in one of the state’s top defenses. The Wolves allowed just 7.2 points per game in winning the AAA title in 2012. The Wolves held 10 of their 15 opponents to a touchdown or less last season and limited Gainesville to a season-low 19 points.
Watson threw four interceptions when the teams met last year, but he also passed for 186 yards, ran for about 100 and threw three touchdown passes in the Red Elephants’ 19-15 victory. And he is showing no signs of slowing down.
So, as unusual as it is to say, look for Buford to lose this week.
It should be another great game. Regardless of the outcome, both teams will emerge as heavy favorites to defend their state championships. And don’t expect to see Buford in the loser’s column of these predictions again this season.
THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS
Last week: 132-41 (.763); Overall: 163-57 (.741)
THURSDAY
Winner##Loser
Howard##Southwest-Macon
Northside-Columbus##Jordan
Spencer##Randolph-Clay
Wilcox County##Monroe
FRIDAY
Adairsville##Armuchee
Alexander##McIntosh
Allatoona##Paulding County
Alpharetta##Harrison
Appling County##Liberty County
Archer##East Coweta
Athens Academy##Pace Academy
Athens Christian##Banks County
Bainbridge##Cairo
Benedictine##Long County
Berkmar##Meadowcreek
Berrien##Brantley County
Bleckley County##West Laurens
Blessed Trinity##Hart County
Bowdon##Haralson County
Bradwell Institute##Savannah
Brookstone##Mount Paran Christian
Burke County##Hephzibah
Calhoun##Dalton
Callaway##Troup
Camden County##Johnson-Savannah
Campbell##Osborne
Carrollton##Chapel Hill
Cartersville##Cass
Carver-Atlanta##B.E.S.T. Academy
Carver-Columbus##Shaw
Cedar Grove##Douglass
Cedartown##Pepperell
Central-Carroll##Bremen
Chamblee##Druid Hills
Chestatee##West Hall
Christian Heritage##Murray County
Clarke Central##Central Gwinnett
Claxton##Treutlen
Collins Hill##Dacula
Colquitt County##Lovejoy
Commerce##East Jackson
Cook##Crisp County
Coosa##Rockmart
Creekside##Westlake
Creekview##River Ridge
Dade County##North Murray
Decatur##Therrell
Dodge County##Hawkinsville
Dooly County##Americus-Sumter
Dunwoody##Lakeside-DeKalb
Dutchtown##Henry County
Eagle’s Landing Christian##Clinch County
Early County##Miller County
East Paulding##Woodland-Cartersville
Eastside##Jackson
Elbert County##Cedar Shoals
Etowah##Centennial
Fitzgerald##Irwin County
Fellowship Christian##Towns County
Flowery Branch##West Forsyth
Franklin County##Madison County
Gainesville##Buford
George Walton Academy##Aquinas
Gilmer##Sonoraville
Glascock County##Georgia Military
Glenn Hills##Josey
Gordon Lee##Coahulla Creek
Grady##North Clayton
Greater Atlanta Christian##Apalachee
Griffin##Northgate
Hancock Central##East Laurens
Hapeville Charter##North Springs
Hardaway##Columbus
Harlem##Oglethorpe County
Heard County##Chattooga
Heritage-Conyers##Rockdale County
Holy Innocents’##Riverwood
Hughes##Luella
Jeff Davis##Telfair County
Jefferson##Jackson County
Johnson County##Twiggs County
Jonesboro##Westover
Kell##Woodstock
King’s Ridge##St. Francis
LaGrange##Harris County
Lakeview Academy##Hebron Christian
Lakeview-Fort Oglethorpe##Heritage-Ringgold
Lamar County##Eagle’s Landing
Landmark Christian##Wilkinson County
Lanier##Oconee County
Lanier County##Calhoun County
Lassiter##Sprayberry
Lee County##Albany
Locust Grove##Ola
Loganville##Walnut Grove
Lowndes##Newton
M.L. King##Southwest DeKalb
Manchester##Greenville
Marion County##Kendrick
Mary Persons##Jones County
Metter##Bacon County
Mill Creek##Brookwood
Milton##Johns Creek
Mitchell County##Pelham
Model##Mount Pisgah Christian
Monroe Area##Winder-Barrow
Monticello##Social Circle
Morgan County##Greene County
Morrow##Forest Park
Norcross##Parkview
North Forsyth##Dawson County
North Hall##Johnson-Gainesville
North Paulding##New Manchester
Northeast-Macon##Central-Macon
Northside-Warner Robins##Veterans
Peach County##Baldwin
Pebblebrook##Mountain View
Perry##Alcovy
Pierce County##Dublin
Pike County##First Presbyterian
Pinecrest Academy##Cross Keys
Prince Avenue Christian##Savannah Christian
Putnam County##Crawford County
Richmond Hill##Beach
Riverdale##Drew
Rome##Hiram
Roswell##Lambert
Rutland##Spalding
St. Pius##North Oconee
Sandy Creek##Newnan
Screven County##Effingham County
Seminole County##Turner County
Sequoyah##Cherokee
Shiloh##Redan
South Cobb##Douglas County
South Effingham##Jenkins
South Forsyth##Forsyth Central
South Gwinnett##Duluth
South Paulding##Villa Rica
Southeast Bulloch##Montgomery County
Southeast Whitfield##Gordon Central
Starr’s Mill##Fayette County
Statesboro##Richmond Academy
Stephens County##Habersham Central
Stephenson##Arabia Mountain
Stockbridge##Upson-Lee
Strong Rock Christian##Clarkston
Swainsboro##Grovetown
Tattnall County##Portal
Taylor County##Central-Talbotton
Terrell County##Chattahoochee County
Thomas County Central##Marist
Thomasville##Stewart County
Thomson##Lakeside-Evans
Tift County##Houston County
Toombs County##Bryan County
Tri-Cities##Banneker
Trion##LaFayette
Tucker##North Atlanta
Union County##Fannin County
Union Grove##Woodland-Stockbridge
Valdosta##Brooks County
Vidalia##McIntosh County Academy
Walker##North Cobb Christian
Ware County##Charlton County
Washington##Lithonia
Washington County##Emanuel County Institute
Washington-Wilkes##Lincoln County
Wesleyan##Salem
Westminster##Laney
Westside-Augusta##Butler
Wheeler##Pope
White County##Lumpkin County
Whitefield Academy##Riverside Military
Whitewater##Mundy’s Mill
SATURDAY
Columbia##McNair
Mays##Miller Grove
Towers##South Atlanta
Westside-Macon##Dougherty
*Games involving out-of-state teams not included
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