The NASCAR championship business model favors chaos as much as consistency.
Staying home -- or at least passenger-side drivers -- at Homestead-Miami Speedway will be Joey Logano, with six victories. Same for Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth, with five each. They all will be competing for fabulous consolation prizes.
But the new-fangled second-year Chase playoff system certainly will deliver drama and four worthy contenders.
Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon and Martin Truex Jr. all have punched their ticket, complete with compelling stories.
Busch has charged on against seemingly insurmountable odds after a crash on the day before the Daytona 500 had jarring consequences -- a badly broken right leg and a broken left foot. Gordon is making his final run on the NASCAR circuit and could leave with a walk-off home run celebrating his fifth Cup title. And Truex Jr. was once cast aside as an afterthought, finishing 24th in points last season before his resurgence as a one-man band for Furniture Row Racing.
Sorry, guys. Defending champion Harvick will be the one celebrating Sunday evening on the outskirts of the Everglades, where you always have to watch out for gators and wicked-smooth stock-car racers.
"Kevin Harvick has been the favorite since before we rolled into Daytona in February," Fox Sports analyst Darrell Waltrip said. "The No. 4 team has everything going for it -- a talented and smart driver, a great crew chief who doesn't panic and a very fast car.
"That combination is hard to beat. Plus, everyone -- the other three championship contenders included -- knows Harvick is the favorite, giving him a sizeable advantage before the race even starts."
Of course we all know that there are quirky variables in every NASCAR race. Will somebody have a "Kenseth moment" and slam another driver out of the race? Blown tire? Miscalculated fuel strategy?
But Harvick should have this thing if there are no mitigating variables.
Harvick is a great driver: See how he drove with one hand in Texas at 180 mph because his shifter kept going out of gear and still rolled to the finish line in third place.
Harvick has a great car: See his 15 top-two finishes this season.
Harvick has been there, done that: See how he won at Homestead-Miami Speedway a year ago when he was also part of the Championship 4 mix.
"Harvick is the most experienced in this situation recently, and he knows what it's like to go into Homestead having to win the race or at least beat the other three drivers for the title," said Larry McReynolds, another Fox Sports analyst. "Harvick is the coolest Cool Hand Luke character in the NASCAR garage."
Does anyone concur?
"The past champion probably has -- if anybody has an advantage," Gordon said last weekend after finishing sixth at Phoenix in a rain-shortened race.
"He's got four championships, so I think he's got the advantage," said Harvick, who finished second.
"That means absolutely nothing," Gordon said.
He's right. This isn't a lifetime-achievement award. It's about who is the better man with the better car on Sunday.
Spoiler alert: Harvick is that guy despite Gordon's drive for five that would be a fantastic way to close out a great and honorable career.
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