The Falcons aren’t a great team. Their record (8-5) tells us so. Their home record (3-3) tells us so. Their defensive rating (28th in yards against, dead last in passing yards) tells us so. That said …
If we check the profile of Dallas, which is apt to be the NFC’s No. 1 seed come January, we find a team that ranks No. 5 in total offense and 28th in passing defense. We find a team much like the Falcons, with this difference: The Cowboys’ offense hinges on quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, both rookies. The last time a team with a rookie quarterback made the Super Bowl is never.
The Falcons aren’t a great team, but great teams don’t always win the Super Bowl. No. 1 seeds don’t always make the Super Bowl, as we around here know too well. In 2010 and 2012, the Falcons were 13-3 and the NFC’s top seed; the Super Bowl winners those seasons were Green Bay and Baltimore, each of which was 10-6.
At the moment, the Falcons would be the NFC’s No. 4 seed and, in the wild card round, play host to the Giants. Seedings, duh, are subject to change. Detroit is No. 2 but must play the Giants, Cowboys and Packers. Of the Lions’ nine victories, eight have come by seven or fewer points. Matthew Stafford, author of this string of breathless triumphs, tore ligaments in the middle finger of his throwing hand Sunday. He’ll endeavor to play wearing a glove.
The most likely scenario has the Falcons – who finish with 1-12 San Francisco, 5-8 Carolina and 5-8 New Orleans – holding off Tampa Bay to win the NFC South and claiming the No. 3 seed. With games remaining against the 49ers, Cardinals and Rams, Seattle should take the No. 2 seed. Which would mean that if the Falcons prevail in Round 1, they’d head to CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are unbeaten this season and 37-5 since 2011.
The Seahawks aren’t as good as they’ve been lately – they’re 2-4-1 on the road, having failed to score a touchdown in three of those games – and if the Falcons see them in January it will be without Earl Thomas, the great free safety who has been lost to a broken leg. That’s the rough equivalent of the Falcons’ offense being without Julio Jones.
Among Seattle’s ravenous defenders, Thomas has long been first among equals. The Falcons passed for 335 yards at CenturyLink in their narrow loss on Oct. 16. How many might they amass with a lesser defender manning the middle third of the Cover 3? It was Thomas who helped Richard Sherman, er, defend Jones on the climactic no-call and whose interception of a deflected pass changed that epic game.
(Kam Chancellor, the splendid strong safety, didn’t play against the Falcons in October. He’s healthy now. But Chancellor – the template for Falcons rookie Keanu Neal – is more an enforcer than a cover man.)
If Seattle is the scariest team in the NFC playoff matrix, the Falcons shouldn’t be trembling. They know they can hang with the Seahawks in the bosom of the 12th Man because they just did it, and there’s a real question about the Seattle offense. Russell Wilson is 21st in passer rating; he has 13 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.
Dallas is a nice story: Rookies revive America’s Team! Dallas also seems likely to lose its first playoff game. As noted, it’s nothing special on defense. As also noted, its quarterback has never been in a postseason tilt bigger than the Orange Bowl, where Prescott’s Mississippi State lost to Georgia Tech on New Year’s Eve 2014.
Even with the Cowboys sitting at 11-2, the road to the Super Bowl still figures to run through Seattle. If the Seahawks mess up and lose one of these next three games, the NFC is officially off the grid. And it’s not just the Falcons who’d stand to profit.
The Giants and Eli Manning have a history of winning the Super Bowl in years they weren’t supposed to win the Super Bowl. The Packers must win their final three games and hope the Redskins and Buccaneers lose, but if they slip in they’d be a tough out. Those Bucs were 4-5 after losing to the Falcons 43-28 on Nov. 2 but have won five in a row. Included were victories over Kansas City, Seattle and San Diego, three teams that beat the Falcons.
For all their flaws, the Falcons bear the look of a team that could play deep into January and maybe beyond. They’ve held up against a wicked schedule. They’ve won big games on the road. They lead the league in scoring by a country mile. (The next-highest scoring clubs trail the Falcons by 70 points.) Their defense is better than in September. Vic Beasley Jr., who billed himself as “a double-digit sack guy” on arrival, is numerically just that.
This isn’t a great team. There are no great teams in the NFC, maybe not in the NFL. But somebody’s going to be a champion. Why not these Birds?
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