The Seahawks carried a stout defense into the Georgia Dome against the Falcons, but they lacked the manpower to match the home team’s scoring. The Packers potentially could keep up, but their defense was over-matched. Both opponents had Super Bowl pedigree.
The Falcons smashed both of those opponents to earn a trip to the Super Bowl on Feb. 5 in Houston. But now, for the first time in the playoffs, the Falcons will face an opponent that has everything.
The Patriots have been very good on offense all season. They were above-average on defense during the regular season and have been even better in the playoffs. And no coach/quarterback duo in football comes close matching the Super Bowl experience of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
The Falcons have been the best offensive team in football all season, and their defense has made steady improvement. After the Falcons beat the Packers in the NFC Championship game, and before they knew their Super Bowl opponent, All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones said they would win it all if they maintained their level of play.
“Because at the end of the day it doesn’t matter about who we are playing and what (they) are doing,” Jones said. “It’s all about us. If we go out there and don’t have any mistakes or things setting us back, most definitely (we will win).”
To do so, the Falcons will have to defeat the most balanced opponent they will have faced this postseason.
During the regular season, the Patriots ranked No. 2 on offense and No. 16 on defense in the efficiency metrics developed by Football Outsiders. None of the NFC teams that qualified for the playoffs ranked above average on offense and defense.
The Patriots beat two very good defensive teams, Houston and Pittsburgh, to get to the Super Bowl. In those two games the Patriots averaged 6.6 yards per play and scored on 13 of 25 possessions (not including one in which they ran out the clock).
The Patriots committed three turnovers against the Texans, including two Brady interceptions. That was uncharacteristic for a team that tied with the Falcons for the fewest giveaways (11) during the regular season.
The Patriots cleaned things up against the Steelers. They had no turnovers and punted twice.
The Falcons will counter with a young defense that increasingly plays the “fast and physical” style that coach Dan Quinn envisions.
“Defensively they close up space very quickly,” Belichick said during a Tuesday media conference call. “Their linebackers run well. Their defensive line (is fast), although they have a couple of big, strong, physical guys in there. Overall they have usually nine or 10 players on the field that I would say are fast. They’re either as fast or faster than probably what the average speed of their position is in the league.”
During the regular season, New England’s defense was very good against the run and vulnerable to the pass. Houston’s feeble offense could do neither, especially after halftime. The Steelers are capable on offense, but they lost star running back Le’Veon Bell to an injury early and never could muster a consistent threat.
New England’s defense will face its toughest test yet in the Super Bowl.
The Falcons can run the ball behind an offensive line that has mastered the precision and coordination required for the outside-zone scheme. Quarterback Matt Ryan can spread the ball to multiple targets, including running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. And the Falcons have Jones, who dominated the Packers while playing on a sore left foot.
If Super Bowl experience matters, the Patriots will have a big edge over the Falcons.
Brady and Belichick will participate in their seventh Super Bowl and third in the past six. They are 4-3 in the NFL’s championship game.
About a third of the players on the Falcons’ active roster are in the postseason for the first time. Only five have played in a Super Bowl. Quinn was Seahawks defensive coordinator for the 2014 and 2015 Super Bowls, but this is his second season as a head coach.
Quinn said he doesn’t worry about the experience gap because “it’s not like we’re going to make it up in two weeks.” He noted that the Falcons already beat two playoff opponents with more seasoning. He acknowledged that the Super Bowl will be another unique experience because of the intense public attention for the game.
“However, when we do get to the game, it’s still going to be the game,” Quinn said.
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