There wasn’t much unknown about Matt Ryan, or so we thought. He’d started the opening game of his rookie season, famously delivering a touchdown pass with his first fling. He’d started every game but two since. (The guy is tougher than leather.) He’d taken the Falcons to the playoffs four times, winning only against Seattle in January 2013. He’d turned 23 three months after he was drafted. At 31, this is his ninth NFL season.
His body of work was formidable. He ranked among the best rookie quarterbacks ever. He’d been good for a very long time and especially good at the end of games. (Over his first five seasons, the Falcons were 29-12 in one-score games.) He’d made the Pro Bowl three times. He’d never, however, been voted first-team All-Pro.
The belief offered — rather often, I’m afraid — in this space was that Ryan wasn’t Peyton Manning, but was comparable to Peyton’s brother Eli, which meant he was good enough to win a Super Bowl. Until last season, when believing came harder.
In 2015, Ryan threw the fewest touchdown passes since his rookie season and his second-most interceptions as a pro. His quarterback rating of 89.0 was his lowest since 2009. His team went 8-8 after a 6-1 start. Over the summer, NFL.com did its annual ranking of the league’s top 100 players: Ryan wasn’t among them. Mike Sando of ESPN rated the quarterbacks by tiers: Ryan finished 13th overall, near the bottom of Tier 2.
The same Matt Ryan — the same but different — should soon be named the NFL’s most valuable player. Some folks, this correspondent included, believe his team might well win the Super Bowl. Should the former happen, Ryan would become the oldest player to claim his first MVP since Rich Gannon, who was 37, in 2002. Should the latter occur, Ryan would become the oldest starting quarterback to win his first Super Bowl since Brad Johnson, who was 34 when Tampa Bay prevailed in January 2003.
The point being: First-tier quarterbacks usually announce themselves early. John Elway, 37 when he took his first Super Bowl win, was 27 when he won his first MVP. Joe Montana, 33 when he won his first MVP, was 25 when he won his first Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers was a champion at 27, an MVP at 28. Tom Brady was a champion at 24, an MVP at 30.
Of the 11 different post-Elway quarterbacks to lead a Super Bowl winner, eight were in the 20s when they took their first titles. Even Peyton Manning, whose breakthrough was seen as long in coming, was 30. The average age of those 11 as of the Super victories was a rounded-up 28.
Ryan isn’t ancient. That said, 31 isn’t an age you’d target for a quarterback’s breakthrough when that quarterback has been a starter since Day 1 of Year 1. We’d seen him have many great moments, many great games. We’d never seen him like this.
He averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt this season, YPA being a go-to metric among the statistical set. That tied him for 13th-best ever, fourth-best since the NFL-AFL merger. (Oddly enough, it wasn’t the best in Falcons annals: Chris Chandler, throwing long to Tony Martin off play-action fakes to Jamal Anderson, averaged 9.6 YPA in the Super Bowl season of 1998.) These Falcons scored the seventh-most points in NFL history. Ryan’s previous high in passer rating was 99.1 in 2012; this season it was an NFL-best 117.1.
If you ask the man himself what has made Year 9 different and better, Ryan shrugs. Did he wonder, even for a moment, if last season’s lesser numbers marked the beginning of a career decline? Did he think his moment might have passed?
“As a competitor, you don’t think that,” he said Wednesday. “Absolutely not. Timing is different for everyone. You always think you can self-improve.”
Then: “Obviously stats are important. They’re a measuring stick. But the difference between playing well and not as well is smaller than people think.”
Did his offseason routine change? “I’ve adjusted it every year. As you get older, you have to adjust. From what it was this year to where it was nine years ago is night and day.”
So: Nothing of substance changed from the year that saw Ryan demoted to No. 13 among NFL quarterbacks to the one that could yield the sport’s highest honor? Not one thing?
Well …. maybe this. “I understand Dan’s schedule and Kyle’s schedule and the setup of this offense better. It was very different from what I’d been used to for seven years.
Maybe we didn’t pay enough heed to last year being Ryan’s first under Dan Quinn, though we certainly noted Kyle Shanahan’s arrival as offensive coordinator. But the two men who presided over Ryan’s worst season since 2009 have now overseen his absolute best.
If we didn’t see it coming — and we didn’t — who cares? It has been our privilege to watch it. And timing? It’s different for everyone.
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