Last year, there was anticipation. This year, there are doubts.
Last year, there were indicators that the Falcons, with the retirement-180 by Tony Gonzalez and the additions of Steven Jackson and Osi Umenyiora, were Super Bowl contenders. This year, there’s reason to wonder if they’ll finish higher than third in their division.
The Falcons open training camp Friday. They play their first game Sept. 7 against New Orleans and their last game Dec. 28 against Carolina. You will not find any predictions here because it was reaffirmed last season what names on paper in July will get you: 4-12.
When last season ended, there were questions about the offensive line, the defensive line, the running back, the wide receiver, the linebackers, the secondary, the coaching staff and, yes, even the quarterback. Questions don’t go away despite an offseason of happy-speak by spin-doctors or constant reminders from the team’s marketing arm that the roof on the new stadium is going to be really cool.
This isn’t just any season for the Falcons. When a team collapses the way the Falcons did in 2013, everybody goes under a microscope. This is year seven for general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith. Together they’ve made a woeful franchise relevant but they’ve have fallen short of expectations in the playoffs (1-4), and injuries last season were compounded by miscalculations in personnel.
The Falcons fell just short of reaching the Super Bowl in 2012. Smith conceded in April, "When you're winning … things get overlooked. You realize later that maybe you should have addressed them that year. And even the year before that. It's a humbling situation."
The old-school football coach admitted, “I lost my way.” He was, like so most, somewhat distracted by all of the offense’s toys and lost sight of what football is still about: Knocking the other team on its collective butt.
Almost every decision the Falcons’ made this season was with the idea of becoming more tougher, physically and mentally, assets that can enable a team to function even when even all the pretty pieces around the quarterback crumble. There are new players, new assistants.
“When you don’t get the outcome you want in this game change comes across the board,” Smith said this week.
He referenced open competition. That can be good, but uncertainty isn’t. The Falcons have both. It’s why so many oddsmakers have placed the over/under on the team’s win total this season at eight. That won’t get them to the playoffs, let alone a Super Bowl.
Smith didn’t hesitate when asked what he is looking for in this camp.
“Can we win the line of scrimmage?” he said. “I’m looking for physicality.”
There were hints of problems last summer when the Falcons were pushed around by Cincinnati in co-practices. Concerns escalated when they went 0-4 in exhibitions. Then came the mistakes by the ballyhooed offense in the opening loss at New Orleans, the blur of injuries to Roddy White, Steven Jackson, Julio Jones and others and a stunning unraveling.
There were too many games when the Falcons took a punch and didn’t return fire, too many moments when “effort” was an empty claim, not reality. If those other aspects don’t improve this season, this team is dead. So possibly is Smith. Even Dimitroff is under the gun. As much as owner Arthur Blank publicly lauds both, this isn’t a man who accepts defeat well, especially with 71,000 seats and PSLs to hawk in his new testament-to-excess.
This team could win 10 games. Or six. Here are some of the potential issues:
- Offensive line: Tackle Lamar Holmes and center Peter Konz were touted draft picks and starters last year. They're probably backups this year. Guard Jon Asamoah and tackle Jake Matthews, a No. 1 pick, should help. But left tackle Sam Baker isn't a sign of stability. How quickly this group can come together under new line coach Mike Tice is key.
- Defensive front: The line is bigger with the addition of Tyson Jackson, Paul Soliai and rookie Ra'Shede Hageman. But whether the Falcons are in a 3-4 or a 4-3, it's difficult to see where the pass rush is coming from. Umenyiora needs to do more than he did a year ago. The linebackers are inexperienced. Sean Weatherspoon, one of the defense's best and most versatile players, was lost to a torn Achilles.
- Julio Jones: He's great but he's injury prone and coming off a broken foot.
- Tight end: Dimitroff chose not to sign a veteran replacement for the retired Gonzalez. First down, third down and red-zone situations just got more difficult for Matt Ryan.
- Steven Jackson: It's not fair to judge him on last season, when he was slowed by a hamstring injury. But he's 31 years old and this hasn't been a great power-blocking line.
Last July, there was excitement. This July, there’s caution.
Smith believes the low expectations externally can be a motivation: “Do I think there’s a sense of urgency? Yes. But urgency is a good thing.”
Only if they react well.
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