Some half-season, eh? Steve Spurrier quit because he was tired of losing – but not so tired he couldn’t fly to Ann Arbor to appear on ESPN’s “College Gameday.” Steve Sarkisian, formerly of USC, got fired en route to rehab. Michigan had found its savior until its panicked punter delivered, figuratively speaking, a swift kick to Jim Harbaugh’s khaki-panted backside.
Ohio State forgot it was supposed to be the greatest team ever. Auburn forgot it was supposed to be good again. Georgia Tech went from being favored at Notre Dame to being incapable of beating anybody. Ole Miss went from winning at Alabama to losing at Memphis. The American Conference has three teams in this week’s Associated Press Top 25, but — just for fun — try naming three more members of the American Conference.
We’re 13 days from the unveiling of the College Football Playoff committee’s first set of rankings. I’d love to tell you I know what will happen, but that would be an obvious lie: I had Auburn and Southern Cal slotted for two of the four spots before the season commenced. But here, as a public service for those planning New Year’s travel, are my latest best (not to say good) guesses.
Ohio State is no lock. The Buckeyes are underscoring what Florida State proved in 2014: No matter how much talent you return, the dynamics change. Ohio State's average margin of victory in Cardale Jones's three starts last season – the Big Ten championship, the playoff semifinal and the title game – was 29.3 points. Its average margin of victory in seven games (none against a ranked opponent) is 20.3. The Buckeyes were in real trouble only against Northern Illinois and Indiana, but the ballyhooed quarterback rotation hasn't worked. There's now a thought they'll make J.T. Barrett the starter over Jones, which is a weird change for a No. 1 team to contemplate. Ohio State faces Michigan State in Columbus on Nov. 21 and Michigan in Ann Arbor the next week. It will be no shock if it loses one of the two.
Clemson needs a few teams to lose. The Tigers could finish as an undefeated ACC champ with only two wins of consequence. (Georgia Tech no longer registers; the Coastal Division winner might not, either.) Clemson could take victories over Notre Dame and Florida State and ride them to the playoff so long as all four of the other four major conferences don't have undefeated champs. And if it comes down to a once-beaten Alabama versus a 13-0 Clemson, I'm not sure Dabo Swinney gets the nod over his alma mater. And I think Dabo's team is really, really good.
Is Utah for real? Going solely on performance, the Utes should be No. 1. They've beaten Michigan, Oregon, Cal and Arizona State. They're ranked only No. 7 in the coaches' poll, coaches being more inclined to vote on reputation. (Utah is No. 3 in the AP poll, which is the province of us enlightened media types.) But the Utes still must play USC, Arizona and UCLA – and maybe Stanford in the Pac-12 championship. If they should get to 13-0, they'll be the No. 1 seed. Even at 12-1, they'd have a great shot at the playoff.
TCU or Baylor? The Bears have been more impressive, although neither has played a ranked team. Decimated by injury, the Horned Frogs needed a deflected touchdown to beat Texas Tech and a comeback from 11 points down with eight minutes left at Kansas State. But the two will meet in Fort Worth the day after Thanksgiving – granted, both have to negotiate Oklahoma and Oklahoma State first – so I'm still thinking TCU.
LSU or Alabama? I say Alabama. Owing to the change of venue due to flooding in South Carolina, LSU will arrive in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 7 having played one road game – at Syracuse – since Sept. 12. Bama, meanwhile, notched October wins at Georgia and Texas A&M. We already know the Crimson Tide can be beaten at home; I doubt it'll happen twice in one year, though.
Bonus question: Does Georgia have any playoff shot? I can't see how. Even if we take a leap of faith and say the Bulldogs win the rest of their regular-season games and a rematch with Bama in the Dome, would the committee tap a two-loss team from the lesser SEC division? With a 28-point home loss and a 21-point blown lead on its ledger? Such a leap would also be a blind one: Georgia hasn't yet beaten a real team — Missouri constitutes half a team — and has seen upcoming opponents Auburn and Tech devalued. With more than half a season gone, we don't yet know if these Bulldogs are themselves any good. The answer will come in Jacksonville on Halloween.
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