The Braves awoke on Memorial Day at 22-21, which was no small thing. They reached the six-month season’s first checkpoint with the National League’s seventh-best record and stood two games out of the second wild-card spot. Relative to what most of us figured they’d be, these first 43 games went pretty darn well.
Three months ago, Baseball Prospectus projected the Braves to go 75-87, and that was among the sunnier forecasts. FanGraphs had them going 71-91 and being the second-worst team in the majors, ahead of only Philadelphia. David Schoenfield of ESPN’s Sweet Spot blog saw them going 68-96. The Atlantis sports book set the Braves’ over/under win total at 73.5.
Oh, and remember: These projections were issued before Craig Kimbrel was traded the night before Opening Day.
In reality, the Braves haven’t been anywhere near an embarrassment. They started 5-0. They fell four games below .500 but have clambered back above break-even. They haven’t yet allowed the season to get away from them.
They’ve seen Eric Stults and Trevor Cahill fail as the Nos. 4 and 5 starters, and they’ve adjusted. They’ve seen the touted Christian Bethancourt relinquish the No. 1 catcher’s job without much resistance — he has played in less than half the games and is hitting .182 — and haven’t much missed him. They’ve seen regular infielders Chris Johnson and Phil Gosselin lost to injury, and they’ve kept going.
Not having Stults and Cahill in the rotation is actually a win-win proposition. Not having retreads take regular turns? Winning. Having youngsters Mike Foltynewicz and Williams Perez take those turns? In the grand scheme, that’s winning as well. The future of this team hinges on young pitching — apart from Jose Peraza, how many position-playing prospects are there? — and the Braves might as well see if the kids are all right. Early returns are encouraging.
That said, there’s cause to wonder about Julio Teheran, the most imposing young starter developed by the Braves since Kevin Millwood. As of Monday morning, his ERA was up more than a run over 2014, when he was an All-Star. His WHIP (walks/hits per inning) was at 1.441; last season it was 1.081. He’d walked 3.4 batters per nine innings; last year he walked 2.1.
According to Brooks Baseball, Teheran’s four-seam fastball touched on 95 mph in 2011. By 2013, it was down to 93 mph. Last year it was at 92; this season it’s at 91. We saw similar dips for Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson, young starters who flamed out so completely that the Braves dumped them not two years after career peaks at age 25 and 24, respectively.
Alex Wood, who like Teheran is 24, hasn’t been as good this season, either. His ERA is up; his WHIP and walk rate are, too. The velocity on his sinker? It’s down. As much credit as pitching coach Roger McDowell gets for running a staff, he hasn’t yet nurtured a gifted prospect into a true No. 1 starter. (Then again, Shelby Miller hasn’t put a foot wrong since arriving from St. Louis.)
The Braves’ offense has been an improvement over last season, although almost anything would have been. From 29th in the majors in runs last season, they’re a not-awful 19th. They’ve taken to new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer’s put-the-ball-in-play ways. Only Kansas City, which nearly won the World Series last fall, has fewer strikeouts than the Braves.
The trades of Justin Upton and Evan Gattis have, however, taken the inevitable toll. The Braves have hit 26 homers, which ties Philly for last in the majors. Kelly Johnson leads the team with six home runs, and he has been on the disabled list since May 14.
For better or worse, the model of the New Braves is Nick Markakis, who through 43 games is batting .308 with an on-base percentage of .399 and no home runs. This gives him a WAR (wins above replacement) value of 0.5, according to Baseball Reference. By way of comparison, the Braves’ previous right fielder — Jason Heyward — has hit .238 for St. Louis but has a WAR value of 0.6. (Justin Upton’s WAR value as a Padre is 1.6.)
The intent today isn’t to assess each offseason trade. The Braves got what they wanted, which was young pitching, and they’ve patched enough everyday holes to field a competitive team. They’ve been a heck of a lot better than the Marlins, who spent a lot of money to stay terrible and have already done the Marlin thing of firing their manager.
We ask: Are the results of these first 43 games sustainable? Probably not. The Braves are in the bottom half of big-league teams in runs and 17th in ERA, which means they haven’t been great at either. They’ve been outscored (by four runs) on the season. They’ve played only 14 games against opponents who, as of Memorial Day, held winning records; they lost 10 of the 14.
Back to projections: Baseball Prospectus assigns the Braves a 5.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs now sees them finishing 76-86, which would be three games worse than last season but five games better than the web site expected in February.
That sounds about right. Apart from Miller, the rotation has been less than airtight — the Braves are 21st in the majors in quality starts — and rotations rule the regular season. If the pitching stabilizes, this team might win 80 games. But the schedule is about to stiffen, and winning 80 seems an absolute-best-case scenario.
