In what will be another busy offseason for the Braves, one interesting situation will be the outfield, where a healthy Mallex Smith gives the team four pieces to fit into three holes.
The 30-something veterans currently filling two of those spots — right fielder Nick Markakis and left fielder Matt Kemp — are finishing strong seasons and playing every day. Markakis was tied for the National League lead in games played before Thursday and Kemp has started 40 and played in all 41 games since coming over via trade from San Diego.
Center fielder Ender Inciarte has been the second-best player on the team behind Freddie Freeman, asserting himself as a leadoff hitter — .307 average and .368 OBP in 62 games in that role — and playing such stellar defense that interim manager Brian Snitker says, “If Ender doesn’t win a Gold Glove, there’s something wrong.”
So what do the Braves do this winter? Trade someone to make room for Smith? The dynamic rookie center fielder was just starting to get comfortable at the big-league level when he was hit by a fastball that broke his thumb June 19.
If so, Markakis seems most likely to be moved, given his relatively modest contract — $11 million each of the next two seasons — compared to $21.5 million owed Kemp over each of the next three seasons. Markakis remains a pretty good defensive outfielder who makes all the routine plays. That can’t necessarily be said for Kemp, especially when he’s playing out of his comfort zone in left field instead of right, as he has with the Braves.
The Braves believe Kemp will be in better shape in 2017 and either more comfortable with experience in left field or back in right field, where he played with San Diego (he was a Gold Glove center fielder not so long ago with the Dodgers). And they love the idea of retaining his big bat behind Freddie Freeman. Kemp has 31 homers and 99 RBIs this season and has hit .280 with eight homers and 30 RBI in 41 games for Atlanta while impacting the entire lineup.
Markakis has hit .285 with seven homers and 32 RBIs in 41 games since Kemp arrived, and Freeman, who was already surging, has been even more a menace to pitchers with Kemp in the lineup. After totaling seven homers, 20 RBIs and a .395 OBP and .597 slugging percentage in his last 40 games before Kemp arrived, Freeman has 12 homers, 36 RBIs and a .457 OBP and .671 slugging in 40 games with Kemp batting behind him.
Still, it won’t be an easy decision for the Braves to move Markakis. They love his leadership, his consistent at-bats and steady production. Plus, he’s had the power resurgence they hoped for in his second year after December 2014 neck surgery. He has 12 homers and 84 RBIs, the ninth time in 11 major league seasons that he’s hit at least 12 homers. (He had a career-low three in his first season with the Braves.)
If they don’t get a strong trade offer for one of the veteran outfielders, the Braves could opt instead to keep all four including Smith, which would give them the kind of outfield depth they’ve sorely lacked in recent seasons and would also be a hedge against injuries. Jeff Francoeur is likely to return as a fifth outfielder and pinch-hitter.
Kemp, despite his durability the past couple of seasons, has a long history of injuries and multiple surgeries and Inciarte missed a month in consecutive seasons for hamstring injuries.
They could always trade Inciarte, of course, but they would have to be bowled over by a major offer to consider moving such a valuable and inexpensive player. There would be no shortage of suitors if the Braves made him available.
Before the Braves acquired Inciarte in the December trade that brought him, shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson and pitching prospect Aaron Blair from Arizona in exchange for pitcher Shelby Miller, it was widely assumed Smith would take over as Atlanta’s center fielder at some point in 2016 and hold down the position for years.
Inciarte, who’ll be 26 in October, moved between all three outfield positions in two seasons with Arizona and most figured he might do the same for the Braves and perhaps be traded before he played a full season for them.
But after Hector Olivera flamed out on and off the field — arrested for domestic assault in April, suspended for a half-season and subsequently traded for Kemp — the Braves didn’t have the outfield surplus they’d envisioned. And Inciarte is even better than most people realized.
The Braves knew before they got him that he was a great defensive player and a high-average hitter. He’s been those things and more since early June, after a month on the DL and then a few more weeks struggling to find his groove.
He hit .202 with a .278 OBP and .246 slugging percentage in 30 games through June 5. In 86 games since, Inciarte has hit .316 with a .368 OBP and .425 slugging percentage. Since the All-Star break, he’s hit .347 with a .397 OBP and .453 slugging percentage in 57 games.
“Now that you ask, I do care where I’m hitting and I really like batting leadoff,” Inciarte said. “I’m having fun batting leadoff and really enjoy playing center field. Having the confidence and the opportunity that Snitker has given me the whole year has been huge for me and I cannot say anything but good stuff about him.
“So I’m in a good spot mentally and with the right team right now. I just want to hopefully stay consistent till the end.”
As for Smith, he had a .350 OBP, four triples, two homers and eight stolen bases in his last 31 games for the Braves before his broken thumb, and seamlessly shifted to left field when Snitker, who took over May 19, decided to play Smith in left and Inciarte in center. (Before Fredi Gonzalez was fired as manager, he played Smith in center and Inciarte in left for a week after Inciarte from a month on the disabled list.)
Smith missed 10 weeks before coming back Sept. 1 to play the final week of the regular season for Double-A Mississippi. He’s stayed with Mississippi in the postseason and will presumably join the Braves for last couple of weeks of the season.
