Falcons aiming for a NFC South takeover from Tampa Bay

With all of the division teams in various stages of their rebuilding efforts, the Falcons (6-6) are set to host the Bucs (5-7) for first place in the division at 1 p.m. Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Bucs won the division last season with an 8-9 record. The first one to nine wins, certainly 10 wins, likely will capture the 2023 title. The Saints are also 5-7, while the Panthers are 1-11 and already eliminated from the playoffs.

“Whether you playing for the AFC North or NFC South, whatever it is, it’s going to be a tough football game that matters and that we earned to play in,” Falcons safety Jessie Bates III said. “So, it’s a great opportunity for us to go out there and take over the division.”

Overall, only seven teams have qualified for the playoffs with a non-winning record.

There were three teams – Browns (1985), Chargers (2008) and Broncos (2011) – who were division winners with 8-8 record.

Four teams have qualified for the playoffs as division winners with losing records: Seahawks (2010, 7-9), Panthers (2014, 7-8-1), Washington (2020, 7-9) and Buccaneers (2022, 8-9).

The Falcons have not won the division title since the 2016 season, when they were 11-5 and marched on to the Super Bowl in Ryan’s MVP season.

The Bucs have the toughest remaining schedule based on their opponents’ combined record (26-33), while the Falcons and Saints each play opponents with a combined 22-38 record.

Each team plays each other once more.

Going into this week, the Falcons (3-0), Eagles (3-0) and 49ers (3-0) are the only teams undefeated in their divisions.

“Well, I think the three years have been a lot different, right?” Falcons coach Arthur Smith said when asked by the AJC to give a State of the NFC South address. “There has been a lot of change, as there naturally is in the NFL. A couple of years ago, Sean Payton was still in New Orleans. Obviously, Tom Brady was in Tampa. Different regime in Carolina. There’s just been a lot of change.”

The Panthers have moved on from coach Matt Rhule and his successor Frank Reich. They will be back in the head-coaching market this offseason, when they could have just kept interim Steve Wilks after the 2022 season.

“Every year has been different,” Smith said. “The one constant when you look at Tampa is they’ve won a lot recently in this division.”

The Bucs have won the past three division titles.

“They have some really good veteran players,” Smith said. “(Wide receiver) Mike Evans, he’s been a dominant player in this league and has been very consistent for a long time.”

Todd Bowles, who previously was a head coach with the Jets, took over for Bruce Arians in 2022. Brady retired after the Bucs were eliminated from the playoffs in the wild-card round.

But the Bucs remain structurally sound.

“It’s a good scheme,” Smith said. “They haven’t changed much defensively. We have our work cut out for us, but we’re excited to be in this kind of game. We’re anticipating another high-energy crowd on Sunday on what should feel like a playoff game.”

The Saints face the Panthers on Sunday and could improve to 6-7 and stay one game back from the Falcons.

“This one is a playoff game,” Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen said. “It just is. That’s the mindset this late in the season, and we’ve got to win every single one of them.”

If the Bucs and the Saints win, all teams would be tied at 6-7. The Bucs would hold first place on tie-breakers.

“It’s a big one,” Nielsen said. “Everybody knows that it is. But it’s about execution, fundamentals and technique in the division. It’s always about that and the line-of-scrimmage play. Limiting explosive plays, tackling in space and takeaways. It’s just bigger in the division.”

Nielsen was with the Saints from 2017-22. He was with them when they beat the Bucs twice during the 2020 season before losing to Brady and the Bucs in the divisional round of the playoffs.

“Been in a lot of division games against this opponent, and in every single one, it is a physical, physical game,” Nielsen said. “Generally, the most physical team is the one that comes out on top. The other part of that is the one who takes the football away. That’s typically what happens.”

Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone was in the NFC North with the Bears before coming to the NFC South with Smith.

“Again, going against coach Bowles and the defensive issues that he presents and the style of play in which they play, going into the game this week, is really no different,” Ragone said. “When you put the film on, it’s aggressive. They play with really good technique.”

The Bucs won’t have too many new wrinkles from the previous meeting, a 16-13 victory by the Falcons on Oct. 22.

“There are always things you adjust,” Smith said “That’s the name of the game. It’s a chess match every week.”

The Falcons have been leaning on their rushing attack since the bye week.

“Last time, I thought we played a little different offensively than we did the past couple of weeks,” Smith said. “When you self-scout, it’s like, ‘Hey, you’re running the ball on early downs since the bye,’ well, the last two weeks, we’ve run the ball 75 times because that’s what we felt it took to win the game.”

Smith believes he has the Falcons positioned for a takeover in the NFC South.

“I appreciate about the way that we work as a staff – coaching to personnel and personnel back to coaching – is a daily grind,” Smith said. “That is your job. I get that, but there’s no egos involved. All we’re trying to do is make sure we have the best players, and they fit us, and we’re working that depth.”

Bates was in the AFC North when he played for the Bengals.

“You have to win your division to get into the playoffs (this season in the NFC South),” Bates said. “We have set ourselves up for a really good situation that we are in. But that doesn’t matter, right now because we’ve got one to go 1-0 against the Bucs.”

The Falcons’ offense likely will need to score more than the 18.8 points per game they are averaging, which ranks 24th of 32. The Bucs give up 20.1 points a game, which ranks 10th.

“We know that it’s a huge and important battle,” Falcons guard Chris Lindstrom said. “Tampa and the Saints have dominated the division recently. We know we have a big challenge ahead of us. We know they are a very good team.”

The Bow Tie Chronicles