Bates trade confirms that Falcons’ season is going nowhere
The Falcons saw the same thing their fan base did and acted with pragmatism.
That is why, it would seem, the leadership triumvirate of president of football Matt Ryan, general manager Ian Cunningham and coach Kevin Stefanski was willing to cut bait — cut Bates, if you will — in trading away team leader Jessie Bates III Monday in return for a 2027 second-round draft pick and 2028 fifth-rounder.
The 2026 Atlanta Falcons are going nowhere. No small segment of the fan base recognized it weeks ago, putting up their tickets to home games against the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers in such volume that supporters of both visiting teams required the Falcons to use a silent snap count in their own building.
The trade of Bates, the team’s best defensive player and a respected locker-room presence, ends the charade, even if coach Kevin Stefanski insisted Monday that the trade doesn’t mean the plug has been pulled.
Even at 3-6, the Falcons are in contention for the cauldron of mediocrity that is the NFC South. But this is not a group that looks like it has the potential to be a playoff team in a more conventional sense, one that has a reasonable chance to advance in the 14-team postseason. Eliminating Bates only reduces any possibility.
The Falcons surrendered that status over the past five weeks by breaking a 581-game winning streak of teams holding a lead of 8 points or more in the final minute of regulation (Baltimore), by making a concerted effort to start fast and then falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter (Chicago), by becoming the first NFL team since 1974 to lose a game in which the opposition did not complete a single pass (Tampa Bay) and then, Sunday, with every reason to be at its best, by committing a season high in penalties (Cincinnati in Madrid).
The Falcons can say they’re still competing for the playoffs. But look at it this way: If they were 6-3 and not 3-6, would they have still made the trade?
A few thoughts come to mind.
1. Ryan is not playing around. It would have been easy to do nothing before the trade deadline on the grounds that the team is still in contention in the NFC South.
But his willingness to sign off on basically feeding that possibility into a shredder in exchange for giving Cunningham the assets to build for the future sends the message that, in his first season leading the franchise, he is committed to building a team that will compete for championships, not merely scrap to be the NFC South’s least-feeble weakling.
2. Perhaps the trade is completely unrelated to the leadership’s assessment of quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
As he tries to demonstrate that he can be the long-term franchise quarterback, trading a player from the defense doesn’t directly impact his ability to perform. (Although Bates’ example and wisdom were such that the previous regime placed his and Penix’s lockers next to each other in the Flowery Branch locker room.)
But in effectively punting on 2026 and looking to 2027 and beyond, is this a sign that they’ve also seen enough from Penix, also?
You could make the case that if they believed in Penix and his future, or at least were still uncertain, they would want to continue to see how he performs in a playoff chase (to the degree that it is one) with the outside possibility of giving him a taste of the postseason.
3. This is not the most affirming commentary on the job that Stefanski has done in his first season thus far.
A team that had the ability to beat the previously unbeaten 49ers, along with Green Bay and New Orleans in primetime road games, is folding its cards after nine games (even if Stefanski says the Falcons aren’t).
This is by no means a loaded roster, but it’s also a team that was beaten in a test of toughness in the downpour at Tampa Bay and has often been uncompetitive as its slide has extended.
Sunday in Madrid, Cincinnati won in part with scheme advantage, according to Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who shredded the Falcons with 155 receiving yards and a 47-yard touchdown reception.
“We knew what kind of game plan they were going to play against us, and they did exactly what we were expecting,” Chase said.
It’s not just that the Falcons are losing, but how they’re losing, and that ultimately falls on Stefanski.
It also doesn’t help that not only are the Falcons on track to finish with a worse record than last year, but the team that fired him after last year has already matched its 2025 win total (five) with his replacement (former UGA offensive coordinator Todd Monken).
4. The Falcons have as brilliant a player as they could ever hope to have in running back Bijan Robinson. And they’ll have wasted the first four years of his career without a single playoff game should the Falcons miss out again. It’s the same sad story lived by past team legends such as Tommy Nobis, Jeff Van Note, Mike Kenn, Gerald Riggs and Steve Bartkowski, among many others.
The same goes for other team members whose effort, professionalism and production will likely swirl down the drain once again.
Right guard Chris Lindstrom, left tackle Jake Matthews, wide receiver Drake London, cornerback AJ Terrell Jr. and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. come to mind.
What Falcons fan would begrudge Robinson, playing for his third head coach in four seasons, if he demanded a trade?
5. Whether it’s intentional, presumably not, this is a message to the fan base, which is fed up — and rightfully so.
Masses of season-ticket holders have chosen to re-sell their tickets and recapture some of their sizable financial commitment rather than support this product with their time, money and emotions.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium was so filled with Bears and 49ers fans that it practically felt like road games for the Falcons.
Owner Arthur Blank and team officials ought to feel some measure of embarrassment, recognize the message being sent by their most loyal customers and feel compelled to do something to demonstrate that they have been heard.
Inexpensive concessions only go so far.
Will it work?
As always, only time will tell.
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