Trading Jessie Bates III weakens Falcons, but deal is worth it
The Falcons were a bad team with safety Jessie Bates III. They’ll be even worse after they traded Bates to the Jaguars on Monday for draft picks.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean that the Falcons (3-6) are giving up on this season. They can still make the playoffs by being the best team in the bad NFC South.
If you think the Falcons weren’t going to do that, anyway, then that’s even better reason for them to get something for Bates now. He’s eligible to become a free agent after this season and will be 30-years old in February.
And the Falcons got a very nice haul from Jacksonville for a half-season of Bates.
They will receive a second-round pick in 2027 and a fifth-round pick in 2028 from the Jaguars for Bates. According to a team source, Falcons decision makers researched past trades and found that no team has ever received that much compensation for a safety as old as Bates.
The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because the Falcons have not made their internal deliberations public.
Before making the deal, the Falcons weighed the possibility of signing Bates to a contract extension against the offer on the table from Jaguars.
“We are giving up something valuable, and we understand that,” the source said. “Our judgment was that the total benefit to the organization justified the cost.”
The Falcons now own eight picks in both the 2027 and 2028 drafts. The 2027 pick from the Jags is likely to fall at about 50th overall. President of football Matt Ryan and general manager Ian Cunningham will have three high draft picks in 2027 to shape the roster for Year 2 of their tenures.
That is more valuable for the Falcons than keeping Bates for the rest of the season. Some of the team’s paying customers may feel differently.
“I think our fans are smart enough to know that in no way shape or form would we punt on this season,” Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski said. “We have three wins like everyone else (in the division). We are very much in the thick of this thing, and we trust the guys that we have.”
Safety Xavier Watts will be expected to fill much of the playmaking void left by Bates on the back line. Watts finished fourth in voting for AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2025 but has struggled in pass coverage this season.
The Falcons acquired safety Sydney Brown in March via trade. He’s been solid while starting five of nine games. Stefanski said former starting safety DeMarcco Hellams is “the next man up that we feel really good about.”
The Falcons won’t be as good in the secondary without Bates. Pro Football Focus grades Bates as the fourth-best safety this season. He led the Falcons in forced fumbles (four). Bates forced fumbles in three consecutive games from Weeks 6 to 8, and the Falcons recovered two of them.
Bates also was a team leader as one its most accomplished players.
“It’s rough because you guys know how I feel about Jessie the person, Jessie the player,” Stefanski said. “At the same time, this is football and sometimes you have one foot in the short term, and one foot in the long term. And things like this make your team better in the long run.”
The Falcons can use the 2027 draft picks to add talent to the core of players they’ve signed to contract extensions: running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, tight end Kyle Pitts Sr., guard Matthew Bergeron and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. That list is heavy on offensive players, which had been the focus of team building for the Falcons over many years.
The previous front office regime reversed that trend by selecting four defenders in the 2025 draft: edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. and defensive backs Watts and Billy Bowman Jr. The new front office drafted cornerback Avieon Terrell in the first round of this year’s draft.
Bates was one of the few defensive players that the Falcons invested significant capital in over the years. They signed him as a free agent in 2023 for four years and $64 million. He was voted to the All-Pro second team in two of his three full seasons with the Falcons, but he couldn’t make them winners.
Now, Bates will join a team that made the playoffs in 2025 and is on track to go back again. The Jaguars (6-2) lead the AFC South. Bates will help out with their weak pass coverage and replace Eric Murray, who was placed on injured reserve last week.
The Falcons will be a worse team without Bates. They’ll use the draft picks they got for him to build a better team.
And there’s still a chance they can pull off a two-for-one by winning the South without Bates while also improving the roster for the future.
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