The Falcons, having beaten New Orleans but losing to Carolina, will see their next division opponent Sunday in Tampa Bay. A victory would get the Falcons back to .500, at 4-4, and likely force the Buccaneers into some tough trade deadline conversations at 2-6.
Of course, if the Bucs win, it would be par for the course in the NFC South, where it always seems no one is contending but no one is hopeless, either.
Here’s what to know about the Bucs before Sunday’s massive matchup that could spark the Falcons on a division-title run:
The rundown
The Bucs are fresh off a 30-point victory in Charlotte, their first win by more than one score in nearly a full year and the first game that wasn’t determined by one score this season. The Bucs started 0-4 and have lost all four of their home games, yet they’re the only team in the NFC South with a positive point differential (plus-11).
Coach Todd Bowles is undoubtedly on the hot seat after the team controversially opted to retain him after his team cratered into a 2-7 stretch to end last season. The Buccaneers are just 4-12 over their past 16 games, though they’ve won two of their past three. Their defense has become a legitimate strength.
ESPN Analytics gives the Bucs a 43.1% chance to win the NFC South, the highest of the four teams. The Panthers are behind them at 30.1%, followed by the Falcons (19.7%) and Saints (7.2%). Surely the Falcons, after knocking off the previously undefeated 49ers, would chuckle at those projections.
The Bucs also ranked eighth in DVOA — above all NFC teams except the 49ers, Seahawks and Vikings. As our beat writer, Daniel Flick, noted this week, all the underlying data suggests this team is superior to its record.
The quarterback situation
Baker Mayfield is back after missing three games because of a dislocated thumb in his throwing hand. Last weekend was a perfect circumstance; the Bucs defeated Carolina so handily Mayfield threw only 11 times. It gave him additional time to heal without exerting much energy, as the Bucs’ defense dominated and the offense rode the ground game. But Mayfield didn’t appear back to 100%, which could matter far more this weekend.
Zac Robinson reunion
The Falcons will face former offensive coordinator Zac Robinson for the first time this weekend. Robinson has already been under heat as the Bucs’ offense has slumped most of the season. His reliance on screen passes remains glaring — and something of which the Falcons could take advantage. The Bucs ran for more than 200 yards in both their victories, so if the Falcons’ ninth-ranked run defense holds to form, that would force the Bucs into throwing more — which hasn’t been a strong suit even before Mayfield’s injury. They’re last in the NFL with 150.4 passing yards per game (undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels started three games).
Robinson and Pitts
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has a case as the best player in the NFL. Bowles’ Bucs, though, have done a nice job containing him. Tampa Bay has routinely been among the best run-stopping teams in the past decade, and that has extended to Robinson. He has run for more than 64 yards against the Bucs only once (93). He’s been held to less than 50 rushing yards three times in six games.
Now, that excludes Robinson as a receiving threat, which is where he’s done his damage. He had eight catches for 82 yards and a touchdown in Tampa last December. He had 100 yards on six catches in last season’s opener.
Tight end Kyle Pitts has been Superman against the Bucs’ defense, which has long had issues with his position. This will be another ripe opportunity for Pitts, especially if the Bucs end up without standout rookie linebacker Josiah Trotter, who missed practice Wednesday with an illness.
Pitts had 166 receiving yards in the last meeting. He also had his season-high against the Bucs in 2024 (88). The Panthers didn’t do much right a week ago, but tight end Darren Waller did have a 50-yard score. There should be chances for Pitts again.
Best player you don’t know
Edge rusher David Walker was a relative unknown coming from Central Arkansas and missing his rookie season with a torn ACL. But behind the scenes the Bucs had glowed about Walker, and the hype has translated into a breakout.
Walker leads the team with four sacks. But he leads the NFL with a 24.6% win rate, per Pro Football Focus, which ranks just ahead of Aidan Hutchinson (24.2%). Rueben Bain Jr. has started showing life after a slow start and injuries. Young veteran YaYa Diaby had three sacks last week. It should be a nice challenge for the Falcons’ tackles.
The Bucs have collected 10 sacks over the past two weeks, and that surge is a large reason — along with excellent play from cornerbacks Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish — why their defense looks formidable right now.
Falcons need to contain …
Bucky Irving, the slippery running back who’s the engine to Zac Robinson’s offense. The Bucs have the No. 3-ranked rushing offense largely because they’ve leaned on Irving. Their backups, Kenny Gainwell and Sean Tucker, also have enough explosiveness to be dangerous.
Receiver Emeka Egbuka missed the last game but could return Sunday, though the Bucs have had trouble getting him the ball. The small-but-feisty Tez Johnson has been their big-play threat. A 2025 seventh-rounder, Johnson has catches of 49, 64 and 19 yards this season. He also has rushes of 10 and 14 yards.
Expect Robinson to try to get veteran Chris Godwin more involved; he has just 27 catches and 243 yards thus far. Rookie Ted Hurst, who played in college at Valdosta State and Georgia State, is nearing a breakout.
Falcons win if …
To emphasize an earlier point, both the Bucs’ wins included 200 yards rushing and plus-three in the turnover margin. That isn’t a sustainable formula. The Falcons need to protect the ball — obviously — and keep Tampa native Michael Penix Jr. upright while forcing the Bucs into passing situations. The Bucs’ offensive line was enduring a disappointing season before smashing the Panthers, so there should be some compelling trench play here.