Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. creating belief he’s franchise QB

FLOWERY BRANCH — Falcons safety Jessie Bates III has seen Michael Penix Jr. develop from a 23-year-old with a girlfriend to a 26-year-old with a wife and a child on the way.

Bates has also seen Penix develop into something else: a quarterback capable of leading the Falcons for a long time.

“When No. 9 is out there, this is a completely different football team,” Bates said Monday. “I really, truly believe that he’s a franchise quarterback. … You can sleep good at night knowing you got Michael Penix playing quarterback for you.”

A ninth-year veteran in his fourth season as a team captain in Atlanta, Bates certainly carries a reputable voice. Whether the Falcons’ decision-makers see Penix in the same light remains locked in a vault behind closed doors, but their sample size keeps growing in a year that needs to end with a firm answer on Penix’s future.

Penix, midway through his third NFL campaign, now has a full season’s worth of starts under his belt after leading the Falcons to a 29-20 victory over the previously undefeated San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The No. 8 overall pick in 2024, Penix has completed 61.5% of his passes for 3,876 yards, 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions across 17 starts, compiling a 7-10 record. For context, Penix would’ve ranked ninth in passing yards and tied for 18th in touchdowns among quarterbacks last season.

“It’s just great playing beside Mike,” tight end Kyle Pitts said. “He’s an ultimate competitor. And seeing how he’s just growing each game, each week, it’s pretty cool to see.”

Falcons running back Bijan Robinson added that Penix is “growing a lot as a player.” Coach Kevin Stefanski pins it on experience. The more snaps he takes, the more throws he makes, the more defenses he sees, the better he gets.

Any player, Stefanski says, gets better with more turns. Penix is beginning to show it.

“I think that’s what I see from Mike, is stacking these games, both in a literal sense — the wins and those type of things — but also stacking all these experiences and learning from them,” Stefanski said. “And already in the ball games we’ve seen a bunch of different coverages, a bunch of different pressures, different philosophies in the red zone, all of that.

“So, I just think you have to do your very best to learn from each one of these experiences, and then try to be better, week by week, as you go through these seasons.”

Penix’s biggest area of growth, Robinson said, is confidence, a natural byproduct of experience and a necessary jump for the lefty signal caller.

“I think his confidence has grown a lot,” Robinson said. “Just being an NFL quarterback, you’ve got to grow in that aspect of your game. And then just him making decisions, his reads, being confident in it, that’s been his biggest thing. But I think the confidence he’s built has been really impressive throughout his time in the NFL.”

The Falcons’ new coaching staff, led by Stefanski, offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt, has asked Penix to play significantly more under center than he’d done previously, and Van Pelt said Penix has made significant strides in that aspect.

But the Falcons are also getting a more calculated, more mature version of Penix.

Long known for his arm talent, Penix threw only five of his 34 passes greater than 10 yards downfield against the 49ers. Facing a defense known for limiting explosive plays and pressuring opposing quarterbacks, Penix knew he needed to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry.

So, he found open options underneath and connected. He averaged only 5.7 air yards per attempt, the shortest across all his NFL starts, according to Next Gen Stats. But he completed 25 passes, the second-most in his professional career, and earned his first win in a game where he connected on 21 or more passes — he was previously 0-4 in such starts.

Penix was efficient, smart and productive, and in his five starts this season, the Falcons are averaging 31 points per game, which leads the NFL during the span.

“He deals,” receiver Drake London said. “That’s M.P.”

Another key step in Penix’s maturation: ball protection.

Penix threw an interception in each of his first three starts to close the 2024 season. By the end of his seventh career start, he’d tossed six interceptions. He’s thrown only one since, and it came on the first drive of his season debut this year against the Green Bay Packers.

Interceptions, Stefanski says, are an occupational hazard for quarterbacks. “It’s gonna happen,” he said. But Penix has avoided them over the past four games, tossing eight touchdowns with no interceptions since Week 4.

“Those quarterbacks that don’t let the other team touch it, that’s a big deal in this league,” Stefanski said. “Understanding when you’re going to take a chance and understanding when you’re going to let it rip into a tight window because that’s what the game calls for, when you’re going to check it down, I just think there’s such a feel for that.”

Penix’s tight-window throw percentage has dropped from 14.9% in 2025 to 12.5% in 2026. His deep ball percentage has fallen from 9.4% last year to 6.9% this year. Conversely, his EPA (expected points added) per dropback has risen from -0.04 last season to +0.09 this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

Defenses are blitzing Penix more, but the ball is leaving his left hand faster, and he’s being pressured less. In turn, he’s picking apart opponents more methodically. He still has that big left arm capable of challenging defenses vertically, but he’s taking layups when they’re available, too.

“What you don’t want is a quarterback that just decides you’re going to play small ball all the time; you’re not going to push the ball down the field. That’s definitely not Mike, and that’s not how we coach,” Stefanski said. “But we want, when the opportunities are there, to let it rip. And when they’re not there, we want to make great decisions.”

Penix’s on-field profile is still coming together and in need of consistency. One week before his performance against the 49ers, he had only 55 net passing yards through three quarters against the Chicago Bears, when a strong fourth quarter salvaged an otherwise rough afternoon.

But the Falcons have seen enough flashes for justified optimism, even to the extent Bates expressed.

And Penix has certainly checked the Falcons’ off-field box. He impressed as a leader this summer despite not being cleared to return to 11-on-11 practice until the middle of August, and he gained respect from teammates and coaches for his approach in his third ACL rehabilitation process.