Dirty Birds Dispatch: Can Penix save the Falcons offense?
GREEN BAY — The Falcons offense hasn’t been good. There, I said something nice. If I weren’t being nice, I’d tell you the truth: it’s been really, really, really bad. Oh, I let my intrusive thoughts win.
Here’s the rundown: 24 drives, 16 total points, seven turnovers (eight if we’re counting a turnover on downs), three made field goals, three missed field goals, one touchdown and zero trips to the red zone. It feels like there should be some reference to a partridge in a pear tree here, no?
Anyway, here’s the good news: Michael Penix Jr. is back.
More than 10 months after tearing his ACL — and undergoing a quad graft surgery to put a piece of his quadriceps in his knee (ouch) and an LET graft to build more stability — the Falcons’ 2024 first-round pick makes his season debut at 8:15 p.m. Thursday against the Packers at Lambeau Field.
It’s the start of the most important season of Penix’s career. The 26-year-old will be given the opportunity to show new coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees that he’s their franchise quarterback.
All this talk about the 2027 draft class and Arch Manning, Trinidad Chambliss, Dante Moore and whoever else tickles your fancy suddenly becomes moot if Penix plays to the level he and the Falcons believe he’s capable.
There will be rust, surely, and likely a few early misses. During his first 11-on-11 training camp practice, Penix missed his first three passes, including two woefully short balls that landed at his receivers’ feet, before hitting four of his final five attempts.
There’s also the element of finding his footing in a new offense and throwing to a few new pass-catchers like Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zachariah Branch and Austin Hooper.
Moral of the story? Patience will be required. But the Falcons can’t afford to be too patient, either. They’re 0-2, and since 1991, only four of 165 teams that started the season 0-3 rebounded to make the playoffs, according to Yahoo Sports — a 2.4% clip.
So, there’s plenty on the line Thursday night. The Falcons aren’t anointing Penix their savior, but his return is certainly a welcomed development for an offense that desperately needs improved quarterback play.
After all, you read Tyler Estep’s “The Win Column” newsletter Monday, right? The one where he begged Penix to return this week? Tyler’s had enough of the Falcons’ offensive woes, to say the least.
If Penix doesn’t fix the problem, God bless Friday’s edition of TWC.
Where will Penix be different? Let’s start under center.
New jerseys aside, Penix physically won’t appear much different Thursday night than he did last season, so this isn’t a point about what, but where. He appears poised to see a significant number of snaps under center for the first time as an NFL player.
- In Penix’s 742 career snaps, only 34 have come under center, and just six of those 34 were pass plays.
- Through two games this season under Stefanski and Rees, the Falcons have run 41.9% of their plays from under center, according to Next Gen Stats.
The Falcons worked extensively with Penix this summer to improve his footwork and comfortability working under center, and quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt said during training camp that Penix improved “greatly” in that regard throughout the offseason.
“He was familiar with it. He had some of it in college early on in his career, and he looks great,” Van Pelt said. “And I think it’s only going to help us in the run game and the play action game and the keeper game if we can get our quarterbacks to play under center.”
Now, the moment of truth has arrived.
Falcons insist their offensive issues go beyond one position
After the Falcons’ 34-3 loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 2, Stefanski said he didn’t want to pin the blame for the offense’s lack of productivity on quarterbacks Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. He reiterated his statement Monday, saying there are things he, his coaches and the entire offense can do better.
“Clearly, you look at this, two games into it, not good enough in any area when you talk about scoring points,” Stefanski said. “I don’t know that it’s fair to say it’s one thing. It’s across the board. There are things that we feel like we can do. Feel good about our players. Feel good about the scheme, but we have to go do it.
“We’re two games into this and not pleased with the offensive production in these first two games, but excited about what we can do moving forward, because that’s our job as coaches. We’ve got to get this fixed.”
It is, however, a bit hard to get on board with the idea of greater issues outside quarterback.
Despite facing heavy boxes against defenses unconcerned about a downfield pass, the Falcons are averaging 138.5 rushing yards per game, seventh-best in the NFL, and their offensive line has allowed pressure on only 27.7% of its pass-blocking snaps, which ranks third-lowest in the league.
So, if Penix brings average quarterback play, will the Falcons’ offense suddenly flourish? Perhaps. We’ll find out together. But their offensive line and run game have largely impressed, and as their quarterback goes, so too will their pass-catchers.
Packers problems
The longtime understudy of Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love has carried on the Packers’ lineage of high-level quarterbacks. He’s off to a slow start this year, having completed only 37 of 71 passes — a 52.1% clip — for 532 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. But the Falcons say they believe Love’s arm poses a significant threat.
“The quarterback’s outstanding,” Stefanski said. “He can make every throw imaginable. His arm talent live is really, really impressive.”
Love has a good group of weapons, too, as receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have 10 catches apiece this season, and Watson has caught three of Love’s four touchdown passes.
“Watson is a big play target and has been for a long time in that offense,” Stefanski said. “It’s a very efficient offense. They also can be explosive, particularly through the pass game.”
Defensively, the Packers have a pair of game-wreckers in linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and defensive end Lukas Van Ness. Cooper, whom Rees called a “stud,” leads the NFL with five tackles for loss to go along with two sacks, while Van Ness has a team best 2½ sacks and four tackles for loss.
Packers’ defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon spent the past three seasons as the Arizona Cardinals’ head coach, and Rees expects to see a few new schematic wrinkles Thursday night.
“Green Bay does a really nice job mixing it up on defense,” Rees said. “Like, you watch their first game to their second game, like, it looks like two different groups in terms of how they prepare for opponents. And coach Gannon obviously has a good track record in this league and has done a really nice job. So, they present challenges.”
Injury report
The Falcons’ biggest loss this week is cornerback A.J. Terrell, who landed on injured reserve Tuesday because of a groin injury suffered in Week 2. He’ll miss four games, minimum, before a potential return.
- Outside linebacker Samson Ebukam, who tallied a half-sack and two quarterback hits against the Panthers, has been ruled out with a hamstring injury.
- Defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. is questionable.
Terrell and Ebukam aside, the Falcons are healthy. That includes quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who appears poised to be Penix’s backup Thursday night.
What I’m looking forward to, Green Bay edition
Experiencing Lambeau Field.
During Indiana’s run to the College Football Playoff National Championship, I had the chance to cover their Rose Bowl rout over Alabama (sorry, Tide fans), and seeing that venue, in that setting, with all its history, was incredible.
Selfishly, I’m glad this won’t be a frigid winter night, but seeing the crowd at Lambeau Field — defensive tackle Gervon Dexter told me this week it’s the closest environment to a college atmosphere — should be really neat.
Keep an eye out for …
Our profile on Bowman, who may be questionable to play Thursday night but is guaranteed to have a story run on him shortly thereafter. Bowman tore his Achilles last November while in the middle of an impressive rookie year, and 10 months later, he’s back on the Falcons’ 53-man roster and nearing a return to the field.
We talked about a lot of things. He still owns the cleats he wore when he tore his Achilles — custom-made red Nike Vapors — but he’ll never wear them again. He couldn’t walk for three to four months and relied on a scooter to get around. During his recovery, he read Kobe Bryant’s book, “The Mamba Mentality,” to help get through what he called the toughest time of his life.
I truly enjoyed Bowman’s transparency and authenticity, and I think you will, too.
Thanks for reading to the very bottom of the Dirty Birds Dispatch. Questions? Suggestions? Contact us at daniel.flick@ajc.com. Follow @ByDanielFlick on X, too.
See you next week.