Weekend Predictions: Can Penix save the Falcons in Green Bay?

Weekend Predictions should have gained confidence from the Falcons getting folded in half by the Panthers. There’s no way my performance on picks against the spread can ever be worse than that.

But I predicted a victory for the Falcons, and there was no hope of that after 10 minutes. I had to spend the rest of the afternoon watching terrible football while doing some honest introspection about my belief in Cooper Rush.

I still managed to squeeze out a winning record. Backing three underdogs who won straight-up made me feel a little better about the Falcons pick.

Falcons (+6) at Packers

It’s a mystery why the NFL picked the Falcons to play three primetime games in a row. At least this Thursday night contest has the hook of Michael Penix Jr.’s return. That’s assuming Penix doesn’t become the latest Falcons quarterback to get injured before kickoff.

The Falcons likely would have made a run at Packers coach Matt LaFleur in January if he were available. The decision to keep LaFleur seemed to be unpopular among Green Bay fans because of his 3-6 playoff record, which includes two losses as the home favorite. They should try supporting the Falcons.

Penix is sure to be rusty in his first game action since suffering an ACL tear in November. It’s doubtful he will perform worse than Rush. I’m counting on competent QB play and good enough defense from the Falcons. They lose but cover the spread.

Oklahoma (+14) at No. 2 Georgia

Once the Georgia vs. Arkansas game became a rout, ABC broadcasters Dave Pasch and Dusty Dvoracek turned to the topic of UGA’s image as a boring program. It was meant as a compliment, and it is. But the people at Sanford Stadium probably are ready to see some excitement after sitting through Tennessee State and Western Kentucky.

Oklahoma was tied with Michigan late in the Week 2 game at Ann Arbor before an interception set up a one-yard TD run by the Wolverines. The Sooners didn’t get enough credit for that effort. OU’s defense is good enough to keep the Sooners in the game against Georgia even if star defensive tackle David Stone (knee) doesn’t play. Georgia wins, and Oklahoma covers.

Georgia Tech (-3½) at Stanford

These teams last met in the 2001 Seattle Bowl. Mac McWhorter subbed for Tech coach George O’Leary, who’d accepted the Notre Dame job before resigning days later for lying on his resume. Notre Dame ended up hiring Tyrone Willingham, who coached Stanford against Tech in the Seattle Bowl. He lasted just three seasons in South Bend.

The Tech-Stanford rematch 25 years later gets the 10:30 p.m. slot reserved for games the ACC would rather not showcase. Stanford lost to Miami and Duke by a combined margin of 80-13. If the Yellow Jackets don’t win this game, then things are even bleaker than they seem on The Flats. I’m taking Tech and giving the points.

Northern Illinois (+10½) at Georgia State

Georgia State’s long-dormant offense has awakened. The Panthers scored 31 points in the victory over Kennesaw State in Week 2 and 30 in the loss at UCF last weekend. It’s the first time since September 2023 that they’ve scored 30 or more points in back-to-back games against FBS opponents. I’m still taking Northern Illinois and the points.

Kennesaw State (+6) at Arkansas State

KSU made a triumphant return from Knoxville after covering the spread with a late field goal. The Owls lost at home to Georgia State, which was picked to finish last in the Sun Belt East. Now they are on the road against Arkansas State, which was picked to finish third in the Sun Belt West. Arkansas State is my pick.

Other college games of interest

No. 1 Texas (-4½) at No. 14 Tennessee

Texas quarterback Arch Manning apologized to ESPN reporter Holly Rowe after he called an AI-manipulated video that depicted coach Steve Sarkisian slapping her “hilarious.” Uncle Eli Manning told Front Office Sports: “You feel like [the media’s] your pal, you relax with them a little bit, you try to be funny, and then they can take it and run.” Eli should explain what’s funny about the fake video so everyone can be in on the joke. I like Tennessee to cover.

No. 4 Ole Miss (+3½) at No. 21 Florida

Gators coach Jon Sumrall told media he’s surprised his team is favored in this game: “I didn’t even know the favored deal, but whoever is doing that, I don’t know, they haven’t watched the tape.” I watched Ole Miss struggle to stop LSU and Louisville and saw the Gators have little trouble scoring against Auburn’s good defense. Those factors plus home-field advantage at The Swamp are why I’m siding with the Gators.

No. 23 Texas A&M (+8½) at No. 10 LSU

LSU coach Lane Kiffin said he’s glad that his return to Ole Miss is over. “Sometimes I don’t act like it, but I’m a human, too,” Kiffin told reporters after the 32-24 loss. This marks the first time that Kiffin has grown tired of attention. Tigers QB Sam Leavitt’s tentative play against Ole Miss might have been because of his throwing-shoulder injury, but he also wasn’t very good before. Give me the Aggies and the points.

Other NFL games of interest

Panthers (-2½) at Browns

The Browns upset the Buccaneers on the road in Week 2 with a great second-half performance by quarterback Deshaun Watson. Watson’s big day also upset the cultish fans of backup QB Shedeur Sanders. I still don’t know if the Panthers are any good because Cooper Rush gave them so much help. I’m backing the Browns as home ‘dogs.

Raiders (+3) at Saints

I regret to inform you that the Saints have taken the lead over the Falcons in the race to replace their franchise quarterbacks. Second-year Saints QB Tyler Shough has been excellent since playing a bad first half in the opener at Detroit. I further regret to inform you that Kirk Cousins has thrown six touchdown passes for the undefeated Raiders. I like Las Vegas with the points.

Vikings (-1½) at Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield’s risk-taking tendencies have a different context since he signed a big contract extension before this season. The Bucs paid Mayfield to be their steady QB, but he’s still playing the reckless style that contributed to four total turnovers in Tampa Bay’s two losses. I don’t see things getting better against Minnesota’s stout defense. The Vikings are my pick.