With Braves close to clinching division, which team is best playoff matchup?

The Braves will win their 19th National League East title within the next few days, unless they blow it (they won’t). The Braves will be the No. 3 seed in the best-of-three wild-card round at Truist Park unless they go on an incredible streak while the Brewers or Dodgers nosedive (they won’t).

So, with nine games to go in the regular season, it’s time to narrow down the potential October opponents for the Braves. It’s likely going to be the Cubs, Phillies or Padres (the Diamondbacks have an outside shot).

Those are all good teams, of course. But October is about matchups. Some are better for the Braves than others. This year, the Padres would be the most favorable draw.

The ideal October opponent for the Braves has few good left-handed pitchers and few dangerous right-handed sluggers. That’s the Padres. They’ve lately been on a hot streak against teams out of contention, but the Braves are built to beat them in October.

The Braves’ lineup is top-heavy with left-handed sluggers. They have left-hander Chris Sale at the top of their pitching rotation. There are two top-tier lefties in the bullpen (Dylan Dodd and Dylan Lee) and another lefty who could move from starting to relief (Martín Pérez).

The Padres would have a hard time dealing with all that. The Cubs and Phillies would be much tougher outs for the Braves. The Cubs are the worst matchup of them all.

The Braves didn’t send out their best pitchers while losing two of three to the Cubs in Chicago this week. It wouldn’t have been any easier if they had their pitching lined up. Chicago’s rotation features three tough left-handers, and multiple sluggers in the lineup bash against lefties.

It’s also best for the Braves to avoid the Phillies. That’s not because Philadelphia still has many of the key players from the team that beat the Braves in the NLDS in 2022 and ’23.

I was in Philadelphia for October games during both of those seasons. The electric atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park played a big part in the Braves losing two games in Philadelphia each year. Should the Braves win the NL East and play the Phillies in the wild-card round, all the games would be at Truist Park.

The Braves’ lineup is top-heavy with left-handed sluggers, and Chris Sale sits at the top of their pitching rotation. (Erik S. Lesser/AP)

There are two bigger reasons why the Phillies would be trouble for the Braves: left-hander Cristopher Sánchez and lefty slugger Kyle Schwarber.

Sánchez is one of the few lefties in MLB on Sale’s level. The key part of Schwarber’s power surge in his 30s is that he’s hitting lefties much better than he did earlier in his career.

That leaves the Padres as the best postseason matchup for the Braves. They beat the hobbled Braves in the 2024 wild-card round in San Diego, but it will be tough to repeat that feat here.

The Padres can’t send out as many good left-hander pitchers as the Cubs or Phillies. The Phillies, like the Padres, have a batter who rakes against left-handed pitchers (Fernando Tatís Jr.), but San Diego can’t match Philadelphia’s lineup depth.

Padres third baseman Manny Machado is having a bad year at the plate by his standards (career-low .720 on-base plus slugging). Machado hasn’t hit lefties much better than righties during his career. This year, he’s produced a subpar .714 OPS against left-handers.

San Diego’s No. 4 hitter, Ty France, has been good against left-handers this year. The Padres otherwise don’t have any batters who do much damage against lefties. That would be a favorable situation for Braves lefties Sale, Pérez, Dodd and Lee.

The Padres have just one left-hander in their starting rotation: Robbie Ray. He’s posted a 5.22 ERA in eight starts since arriving in a trade from the Giants. The Padres have two good lefties among their top relievers, Adrián Morejón and Yuki Matsui.

Just three effective lefties aren’t enough to navigate the Braves’ left-leaning lineup. Three of their top four batters hit from that side: Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II. Ronald Acuña Jr. bats right but, for his career, he’s produced better numbers against right-handers (.902 OPS) than lefties (.876 OPS).

Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo López adjusts his cap during a game against the Cubs on Monday, Sept. 14, 2026, in Chicago. The Braves lost two of three to the Cubs this week. (Nam Y. Huh/AP)

The Braves should be favored over the Padres in a three-game series. The Braves would have a good chance against the Phillies. But I’d take the Cubs over the Braves.

Chicago has three good left-handers in its starting rotation. Two of them, David Peterson and Shota Imanaga, shut down the Braves in Chicago this week. The Cubs have a combustible bullpen, but manager Craig Counsell may not have to call on his relievers much in a three-game series.

Chicago’s lineup also is a tough matchup for the Braves.

NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong bats lefty but he wears out left-handed pitchers nearly as much as righties. Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman produce good numbers against lefties. The Cubs even have two bench players who hit lefties well, Matt Shaw and Tyrone Taylor.