Hawks’ playoff probabilities remain high despite consecutive losses
The Hawks might not have clinched their spot in the top six after a loss Wednesday, but a trip to the NBA postseason remains well within their sights.
Atlanta has lost consecutive games for the first time since Feb. 11 but still has solid odds to secure a spot in the playoffs. However, with just two games left in the regular season, the Hawks’ window to bypass the play-in tournament is shrinking.
According to Basketball Reference, the Hawks have a 97.6% chance of making the playoffs. The site arrives at that probability “based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the NBA season, including the play-in round.”
The website also projects the Hawks have a 91.1% chance of winning the Southeast Division, which Atlanta leads by one game over the Magic and two games over the Hornets before Thursday’s games. A division title would serve as a tiebreaker in the event of a three-way tie.
In the Eastern Conference before Thursday’s games, the Hawks have a half-game lead over the Raptors, who occupy the sixth seed. If the Raptors defeat the Heat on Thursday night, they will overtake the Hawks for the fifth seed. The Raptors own the tiebreaker against the Hawks after winning the regular-season series between the teams.
The Hawks could drop out of the top six if they lose both of their final games of the regular season. The Hawks next tip off against the Cavaliers at 7 p.m. Friday at State Farm Arena and finish the regular season Sunday at the Heat.
So, what do the Hawks’ playoff probabilities look like?
Odds for the fifth or sixth seed
- Fifth seed: 70.6%.
- Sixth seed: 19.3%.
Should the Hawks finish the regular season with the fifth seed, they would face the fourth seed — potentially the Knicks or the Cavaliers — in the first round. As of Thursday, the currently fourth-seeded Cavaliers have a 79.9% chance of finishing the season at No. 4.
Three games separate the third-place Knicks from the second-seed Celtics, while a half-game separates New York from the Cavaliers. The Knicks have three games remaining, and the Cavaliers have two.
The Hawks have played both Cleveland and New York in close matchups in the final week of the regular season, losing both.
Odds for the seventh, eighth or ninth seed
- Seventh seed: 8.4%.
- Eighth seed: 1.7%.
- Ninth seed: 0.1%.
While not ideal, the Hawks have a path to the playoffs even if they fall out of the top six. The lowest the Atlanta could fall is ninth should it lose out.
If the Hawks drop to the seventh or eighth seed, they will compete in the play-in tournament April 14 or 15. If they win that game, they become the seventh seed and would play the No. 2 seed, most likely the Celtics.
Should they fall to the ninth seed, the Hawks would host the 10th seed. To make the playoffs, they would have to win that game, then another against the loser of the game between the seventh and eighth seeds.
The play-in game to advance to the playoffs as the eighth seed will take place April 17. The winner of that matchup will play the top-seeded Pistons.
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