Maxwell GHSA playoff projections heading into the semifinals
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2025 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship, along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrollton | #1 (2-AAAAAA) | 13-0 | 108.01 | 96.01 | 4.51 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 869,676.07 | 642,573.73 | 0.56 |
| Buford | #1 (8-AAAAAA) | 13-0 | 100.89 | 98.94 | 4.15 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 854,174.33 | 300,570.27 | 2.33 |
| North Gwinnett | #1 (7-AAAAAA) | 12-1 | 92.56 | 104.27 | 3.17 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 130,323.93 | 42,302.10 | 22.64 |
| Valdosta | #1 (1-AAAAAA) | 12-1 | 86.51 | 103.72 | 3.16 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 145,825.67 | 14,553.91 | 67.71 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas County Central | #1 (2-AAAAA) | 13-0 | 94.92 | 88.01 | 4.11 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 683,532.63 | 422,971.85 | 1.36 |
| Hughes | #1 (3-AAAAA) | 12-0 | 93.70 | 91.71 | 3.54 | 1,000,000.00 | 769,647.22 | 503,614.00 | 262,930.31 | 2.80 |
| Rome | #1 (5-AAAAA) | 11-2 | 88.51 | 90.48 | 3.57 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 413,074.74 | 153,069.90 | 5.53 |
| Roswell | #1 (7-AAAAA) | 12-1 | 88.65 | 91.28 | 3.45 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 316,467.37 | 137,751.25 | 6.26 |
| Gainesville | #2 (7-AAAAA) | 10-2 | 85.01 | 95.45 | 2.34 | 1,000,000.00 | 230,352.78 | 83,311.26 | 23,276.70 | 41.96 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creekside | #1 (4-AAAA) | 13-0 | 101.88 | 78.90 | 4.85 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 958,364.35 | 889,222.58 | 0.12 |
| Marist | #1 (5-AAAA) | 12-1 | 81.20 | 93.98 | 3.56 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 506,569.96 | 49,040.02 | 19.39 |
| Benedictine | #1 (1-AAAA) | 10-2 | 80.98 | 94.02 | 3.54 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 493,430.04 | 46,812.02 | 20.36 |
| Kell | #1 (6-AAAA) | 11-2 | 76.36 | 94.83 | 3.06 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 41,635.65 | 14,925.38 | 66.00 |
Class AAA Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Creek | #3 (2-AAA) | 13-0 | 86.34 | 72.78 | 4.56 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 858,731.08 | 702,320.39 | 0.42 |
| Jefferson | #1 (8-AAA) | 12-1 | 75.61 | 78.24 | 3.89 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 706,193.41 | 186,324.16 | 4.37 |
| LaGrange | #15 (2-AAA) | 11-2 | 72.78 | 82.15 | 3.21 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 141,268.92 | 66,074.30 | 14.13 |
| West Laurens | #4 (4-AAA) | 13-0 | 69.59 | 81.02 | 3.34 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 293,806.59 | 45,281.15 | 21.08 |
Class AA Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carver (Columbus) | #3 (1-AA) | 13-0 | 81.58 | 67.53 | 4.62 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 942,280.45 | 678,805.27 | 0.47 |
| Sumter County | #9 (1-AA) | 12-1 | 75.28 | 73.72 | 4.13 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 838,598.20 | 291,416.32 | 2.43 |
| Hapeville Charter | #12 (5-AA) | 9-4 | 63.00 | 78.65 | 3.18 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 161,401.80 | 19,572.86 | 50.09 |
| Burke County | #10 (4-AA) | 11-2 | 59.98 | 78.85 | 3.07 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 57,719.55 | 10,205.55 | 96.99 |
Class A Division I Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toombs County | #4 (3-A Division I) | 12-1 | 70.35 | 61.82 | 4.28 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 741,428.44 | 541,491.84 | 0.85 |
| Worth County | #3 (1-A Division I) | 13-0 | 63.31 | 60.35 | 4.22 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 889,172.25 | 328,780.30 | 2.04 |
| Heard County | #1 (6-A Division I) | 13-0 | 60.66 | 66.05 | 3.38 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 258,571.56 | 120,324.08 | 7.31 |
| Pepperell | #10 (6-A Division I) | 9-4 | 47.48 | 66.22 | 3.12 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 110,827.75 | 9,403.78 | 105.34 |
Class A Division II
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln County | #1 (8-A Division II) | 13-0 | 60.50 | 47.74 | 4.57 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 903,660.91 | 668,013.26 | 0.50 |
| Bowdon | #1 (7-A Division II) | 11-2 | 53.58 | 54.56 | 3.87 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 643,701.51 | 223,711.61 | 3.47 |
| Clinch County | #1 (2-A Division II) | 13-0 | 48.77 | 56.49 | 3.44 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 356,298.49 | 85,219.22 | 10.73 |
| Early County | #1 (1-A Division II) | 10-3 | 42.29 | 56.80 | 3.12 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 96,339.09 | 23,055.91 | 42.37 |
Smaller Private
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Playoffs | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hebron Christian | #2 (8-AA) | 10-1 | 80.22 | 65.39 | 4.66 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 947,576.74 | 713,034.09 | 0.40 |
| Fellowship Christian | #1 (5-A Division I) | 10-1 | 72.54 | 74.20 | 3.87 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 666,067.06 | 206,713.16 | 3.84 |
| Calvary Day | #4 (3-AAA) | 11-1 | 68.04 | 76.73 | 3.41 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 333,932.94 | 71,481.43 | 12.99 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | #6 (6-AAA) | 10-2 | 57.79 | 77.04 | 3.06 | 1,000,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 | 52,423.26 | 8,771.32 | 113.01 |
