Weekend Predictions: Falcons, Saints to decide which team is worse

Weekend Predictions might yet clear the low bar of finishing with a better record than the Falcons. I had my best outing of the year picking games against the spread last week. There was never any doubt, just like Georgia Tech always had victory in the bag at Boston College.

While at BC for that game, I came across a poster of ex-Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan with a picture from his BC playing days. I realized that Ryan looked the same in college as he did during his Falcons tenure. Unfortunately for BC and the Falcons, they can’t turn back time to when Ryan was their quarterback and they were good.

Falcons (+1½) at Saints

My preseason prediction that the Falcons (3-7) would make the playoffs was done even before Michael Penix Jr. suffered a season-ending injury. Now I’m just hoping to see the funniest outcome for their season. Something like Kirk Cousins rediscovering his Pro Bowl form and the Falcons started a winning streak, but they miss the playoffs because they lose a game they shouldn’t, in a way that doesn’t seem possible.

The quarterbacks make this game difficult to judge. Cousins was healthy in three games played this season and didn’t look any better than the end of last year. Saints rookie Tyler Shough has made one good start out of three. I’m picking the Falcons to win because their pass defense is the best unit in this game and New Orleans (2-8) can’t take advantage of their soft run defense.

Charlotte (+43 ½) at No. 4 Georgia

The point of this game is to generate revenue for Georgia football. That’s the point of all games, but this one has no other purpose. It’s the second such home game for Georgia this season. At least Austin Peay had a fun name. Charlotte is 1-9 in its first season with coach Tim Albin. At least predecessor Biff Poggi had a fun name.

The OddsShark database goes back to the start of the 1990 season. They were 1-4 in games in which they were favored by 40-plus points during that time, with a high of 45 points vs. Kent State in 2022. My heart wants to take the 49ers and all those points, but my head knows they could be the worst team in FBS. Georgia will cover the spread.

Pittsburgh (+2½) at No. 16 Georgia Tech

There’s a lot at stake for Georgia Tech in this game. With a victory, the Yellow Jackets will stick it to one of college football’s most insufferable coaches. In the days before the Panthers played Notre Dame at home last weekend, Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said the game didn’t matter because it wasn’t an ACC contest. Narduzzi called a timeout with six seconds left in the 35-17 loss and afterward suggested that bad calls by officials contributed to Pitt’s 0-for-13 showing on third downs.

Unfortunately, Narduzzi has a good chance of winning this game. Pitt’s offense is explosive, and Tech’s defense has suddenly started to leak oil. I think that group will be helped by the return home to Bobby Dodd Stadium for an electric atmosphere. That boost plus Haynes King will be enough for the Jackets to win and cover the spread.

Missouri State (+6½) at Kennesaw State

I was lucky to be right on my pick of Jacksonville State as a home underdog against Kennesaw State last weekend. The Owls lost 35-26 while committing three turnovers inside Jax State’s 25-yard line and giving up a Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the first half. Said KSU coach Jerry Mack: “We talked about the mistakes, what could be better, what coulda, shoulda, woulda and then we moved on.” I like the Owls to cover.

Georgia State (+10½) at Troy

Georgia State running back Jordon Simmons set a program record at Marshall last weekend by scoring on a 92-yard touchdown run. Kicker Braeden McAlister also set a school record with a 60-yard field goal. That’s about it as far as positive developments for the Panthers, who are 0-9 against FBS opponents. The betting markets strangely haven’t caught on to how bad GSU is, but I have. I’ll take Troy and give the points.

Other college games of interest

No. 15 USC (+9½) at No. 7 Oregon

ESPN GameDay will be in Eugene. Per Trojan Wire, USC coach Lincoln Riley said he’s not using that as motivation for his team: “I think for us, these are all the same people who thought we were gonna suck … so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. So, we haven’t forgotten that.” You can tell the Trojans don’t care about GameDay by how Riley still remembers what people said on GameDay. Oregon is my pick.

No. 22 Missouri (+7½) at No. 8 Oklahoma

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables just got to the SEC, and he’s already got more victories against Alabama (two) than Kirby Smart. The Sooners got back in the College Football Playoff picture by winning at Tuscaloosa last weekend. They’ll make a strong case by winning out against Missouri and LSU. I like Mizzou with the points.

Arkansas (+9½) at No. 17 Texas

ESPN’s Desmond Howard posted a video on social media in which he speculated that Texas coach Steve Sarkisian and the school would mutually part ways after the season. Sarkisian said reports about his departure are “absolutely false and untrue.” I hate that I can’t rule out the possibility that Howard engineered the story so ESPN’s personalities can talk about it on the endless platforms it uses to promote its own interests. Give me Arkansas and the points.

No. 20 Tennessee (-4½) at Florida

Tennessee’s Josh Heupel seems to have avoided the fan fury that eventually engulfs the coach of every big-brand SEC program with inconsistent results. I can’t tell if that means Vols fans have some developed some healthy perspective, or if they just gave up on expecting any better. They might start grumbling if Heupel loses for a third time in three tries at The Swamp. I’m backing the Vols to end their 10-game losing streak at Florida while covering the spread.

Other NFL games of interest

Buccaneers (+6½) at Rams

Bucs coach Todd Bowles told reporters that about 15 players and five coaches fell ill from a “bug going around the building.” Symptoms reportedly include choking and coughing up the division lead. Tampa Bay (6-4) has lost two of its past three games, allowing the Panthers (6-5) back in the NFC South. The Rams will cover.

Panthers (+7) at 49ers

Panthers quarterback Bryce Young in five games (four wins) vs. the Falcons: 6.9 yards per pass attempt, seven touchdowns, two interceptions. Young in 33 games (eight wins) vs. every other opponent: 5.8 yards per attempt, 33 touchdowns, 24 interceptions. The 49ers aren’t going to let Young set passing records against them. San Francisco is my pick.