Projecting the College Football Playoff field: Top 10 upsets add intrigue
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A shakeup of top 10-ranked teams will add intrigue to the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season.
The clock struck midnight on Cinderella stories at Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, and traditional powerhouse Miami stumbled, too, leaving all three outside the projected 12-team CFP field.
The first set of CFP rankings will come out at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, and the guesswork begins in earnest after that.
Perhaps most interesting will be how the 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee sorts out the top three-ranked undefeated teams. Defending national champion Ohio State (8-0) and Indiana (9-0) are atop the Big Ten, while Texas A&M (8-0) is the only remaining undefeated team in the SEC.
A new “record strength” metric was introduced to the CFP committee in the offseason, but how and to what extent it factors in remains to be seen.
Notre Dame (6-2) is likely the biggest benefactor of the Commodores (7-2), Yellow Jackets (8-1) and Hurricanes (6-2) falling in their respective conference road games on Saturday.
The Irish scored a 25-10 road win over Boston College on a day that saw Vanderbilt fall at No. 20-ranked Texas, 34-31, Miami lose in overtime at SMU in overtime (26-20) and Georgia Tech lose under the lights at North Carolina State (48-35).
Georgia (7-1), a 24-20 winner over Florida in a back-and-forth affair that saw five lead changes, plays at Mississippi State next Saturday before it has two regular-season showdowns that figure to have CFP field implications.
The Bulldogs will play host to the Longhorns (7-2) on Nov. 15, as Texas remained in CFP contention with its home win over Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Georgia’s Nov. 28 game against the one-loss Yellow Jackets at Mercedes-Benz Stadium figures to carry postseason weight, too, as its possible neither team will be playing in its respective conference title matchup the following week.
The Bulldogs likely have a strong enough schedule to make the College Football Playoff field even if they lose one more game, as the SEC figures to benefit most from the new schedule metric.
Alabama (7-1) was idle on Saturday but looks to be on track to make the College Football Playoff field, as does Ole Miss (8-1), which knocked off South Carolina (30-14) on Saturday in Oxford.
Memphis (8-1) strengthened its resume with a 38-14 win over Rice on Friday night as it looks to finish as the highest-ranked team from a Group of 5 conference.
The Tigers sit atop the American Athletic Conference, where North Texas (8-1) knocked Navy (7-1) from the ranks of the unbeaten on Saturday (31-17), and Tulane (6-2) saw its postseason hopes take a hit with its 48-26 loss to UTSA on Thursday night.
Here’s a look at the projected CFP field as of the games played on Nov. 1:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 3 Ohio State
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
Dec. 19 and 20 on campus
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU (Big 12 champ)
Quarterfinal games
Played at the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Oklahoma/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Ohio State
No. 10 Virginia/Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame/BYU winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
About the Author
Mike is in his eighth season covering SEC and Georgia athletics for AJC-DawgNation and has 30 years of collegiate sports multimedia experience, 25 of them in the SEC including beat writer stops at Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee and now Georgia. Mike was named the National FWAA Beat Writer of the Year in January, 2018.
