Weekend Predictions: Kentucky no match for Georgia
Weekend Predictions got back on the winning side, thanks to a good day of picking against the spread on NFL games. My season record still is only one game above breakeven. One terrible week is holding me back.
I can’t afford another performance like that. ACC refs won’t save me.
Kentucky (+20½) at No. 12 Georgia
Kentucky’s Mark Stoops signed a contract in 2022 that made him the fifth-highest-paid coach in the SEC. The Wildcats are 6-19 versus power-conference teams since then. Stoops’ buyout is $38 million after this season. Athletic director Mitch Barnhart should try being better at his job instead of asking fans to urge Congress to bail him out with anti-labor NIL legislation.
Kentucky is one of the worst programs in the SEC. That never seems to matter much in Lexington. The Wildcats usually play Georgia close there. But they didn’t score more than 13 points in their past five trips to Athens and lost each game by margins of at least 17 points. This isn’t the Kentucky team to end that trend. I’ll take UGA and give the points.
James Madison (-20) at Georgia State
James Madison coach Bob Chesney’s bright idea of rotating QBs in the middle of series hurt his team during the loss at Louisville. Matthew Sluka would run for big gains, then go to the sideline to watch Louisville’s pass rush swallow Alonza Barnett III. Barnett has been the main guy for the past two games. He’s pretty good when he has time to throw. GSU’s defense is tied for 12th in sacks per game in the Sun Belt. James Madison is my pick.
Other college football games of interest
No. 3 Miami (-4½) at No. 18 Florida State
This is the first time since 2016 that both Miami and FSU will be ranked for this game. That didn’t stop Seminoles coach Mike Norvell from telling media it’s “one of the best rivalries in college football.” Miami’s defensive line is elite. I think FSU’s much-improved offensive line can handle the heat. Good blocking and energy from the keyed-up crowd at night will help the ‘Noles cover.
Mississippi State (+14½) at No. 6 Texas A&M
Per TexAgs, Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said Kyle Field provides a recruiting advantage. “If you bring a kid to Kyle Field when there’s 109,000 people there, they won’t see anything else like that.” I’ve been at Kyle Field for a big game, and he’s right. You won’t see that “Starship Troopers” vibe anywhere else. It seems like an easy call to pick Mississippi State in this one. That makes me worry about a trap, but I’m backing the Bulldogs anyway.
No. 16 Vanderbilt (+10½) at No. 10 Alabama
I’m pleased to report that Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is still trash-talking the Crimson Tide after the Commodores won at Georgia. Pavia beat Bama last year and this week he told on3: “The crowd, I think, is going to be a big factor in the game. But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won’t be close.” Heisman Trophy-winner Johnny Manziel (he also beat Bama) is in Pavia’s ear, but that’s had no noticeable negative effect so far. I’m backing Vandy as the underdog.
Wake Forest (+7) at Virginia Tech
Game officials robbed Wake Forest when they didn’t call a Georgia Tech defender for an obvious offside. Deacons coach Jake Dickert was measured when speaking to media about the topic Monday, though he did slip in this line: “If this happened in a playoff chase, the outcry would be massive.” Virginia Tech plays at Georgia Tech next week. The Hokies replaced coach Brent Pry with Philip Montgomery, then blew out Wofford and won at North Carolina State. I’m still taking Wake Forest and the points.
Clemson (-14) at North Carolina
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney told reporters he’s excited to face North Carolina’s Bill Belichick. Swinney can’t be more thrilled than the people who wanted to see these championship coaches get humbled. Swinney is on track for the worst season of his career. Belichick lost both games against power-conference teams by a combined score of 82-23. TCU and Central Florida are better than Clemson, though, so I’ll take UNC as the home ‘dog.
Other NFL games of interest
Patriots (+8½) at Bills
The Falcons host the Bills after the bye week. Buffalo is 1-3 against the spread in its past four home games. All the opponents were bad: Patriots, Jets, Dolphins and Saints. That history enhanced my natural desire to back the underdog. I didn’t need to reach to do it in this case. The Bills have underachieved, and the Pats are better than expected. New England is the pick.
Dolphins (-1½) at Panthers
The Dolphins lost ground in the race for the No. 1 draft pick with a victory at the Jets in Week 4. If they slide down too far then we’ll miss out on seeing them make the wrong decision when drafting QB Tua Tagovailoa’s replacement. The Panthers followed their beatdown of the Falcons with a 42-13 loss at New England. They are who I thought they were, but Miami’s defense can’t be trusted. Panthers are my pick.
Giants (+1½) at Saints
Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart told media members that he has a chip on his shoulder about the Saints passing on him with the No. 9 pick in the draft. Dart missed out on the chance to play for a different bad team. Dart made his first start in Week 4 and passed for one touchdown and ran for another as the then-winless New York beat previously undefeated San Diego. Dart will do enough for the Giants to cover in New Orleans.
Buccaneers (+3½) at Seahawks
A reporter asked Bucs QB Baker Mayfield if he and Seahawks QB Sam Darnold reminiscence about “the good ole days” with the Panthers. “Reminisce about what days?” Mayfield said, in the only appropriate response to that question. Mayfield led Tampa Bay to comeback victories in the first three weeks but couldn’t do it again against the Eagles in Week 4. The Seahawks seem underrated. They are my pick.
Last week: 6-5. Season: 28-27.
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