AJC Varsity

Maxwell Week 9 football projections: Milton favored by a TD over Gainesville

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns.
Milton players run through the banner before their game against Langston Hughes in the GHSA Class 5A State Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Tuesday, December 17, 2024, in Atlanta. (Jason Getz / AJC)
Milton players run through the banner before their game against Langston Hughes in the GHSA Class 5A State Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Tuesday, December 17, 2024, in Atlanta. (Jason Getz / AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
4 hours ago

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

Favorite Projection Underdog
Date Game Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
Fri, Oct 1086.05AAAAAMilton67.9%21 - 147GainesvilleAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1081.14AAAAAAValdosta71.4%21 - 138Richmond HillAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1074.53AAAAAADouglas County87.9%28 - 1018WestlakeAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1074.17AAAAAAMill Creek59.0%21 - 174Collins HillAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1073.70AAAAAANorth Cobb61.4%21 - 174MariettaAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1073.64AAAAAALowndes95.1%37 - 1324Camden CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1070.75AA PublicCarver (Columbus)52.5%22 - 211Sumter CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 1066.73AAAAARiver Ridge61.0%24 - 204SprayberryAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1064.34AAAANorth Oconee97.9%40 - 634EastsideAAAA
Fri, Oct 1063.16AAA PublicCalhoun67.0%28 - 217Northwest WhitfieldAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1061.40AAAAAVilla Rica50.2%18 - 180New ManchesterAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1061.00AAAAAAColquitt County96.5%37 - 730Tift CountyAAAAAA
Thu, Oct 0959.15AAAAAABuford99.4%45 - 045DaculaAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1058.21AAA PublicLaGrange88.3%28 - 1216Mary PersonsAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1057.50AAAAAANorth Atlanta52.3%20 - 200North ForsythAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1056.87AAA PublicNorth Hall79.7%31 - 2011Greater Atlanta ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 1055.98AAAAAAHillgrove97.2%33 - 033CampbellAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1055.69A Division I PublicThomasville88.3%31 - 1417FitzgeraldA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1055.69AAA PublicCherokee Bluff53.6%24 - 231Monroe AreaAAA Public
Thu, Oct 0955.39AA PublicCarver (Atlanta)91.5%28 - 721Holy InnocentsSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 1055.25AAAAASequoyah93.5%31 - 724WoodstockAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1054.46AAA PublicHarlem60.2%22 - 202AquinasSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 1054.43AAAAFlowery Branch77.3%28 - 199Madison CountyAAAA
Fri, Oct 1053.93AAAAAAWheeler61.2%28 - 244EtowahAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1053.70A Division IIBrooks County61.4%21 - 174Clinch CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1053.63AAAAAAArcher90.3%32 - 1319GrovetownAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1053.02AAAASouthwest DeKalb85.7%28 - 1216TuckerAAAA
Fri, Oct 1052.77AA PublicNorth Murray77.0%28 - 1711RinggoldAA Public
Fri, Oct 1052.60AAA PublicDouglass77.9%23 - 1211LuellaAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1051.55AA PublicAppling County72.0%24 - 159Crisp CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 1051.30AAA PublicWest Laurens84.0%34 - 2014Richmond AcademyAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1050.75AAAAAALambert82.8%31 - 1714AlpharettaAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1050.13AAAAABrunswick93.8%35 - 1223StatesboroAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1049.61AAAAHampton78.4%28 - 1513Eagle's LandingAAAA
Fri, Oct 1049.26AAA PublicTroup95.6%40 - 1426Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)Smaller Private
Fri, Oct 1049.00AAA PublicNorth Clayton79.9%34 - 2212Cedar GroveAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1048.99AAAAMays53.6%21 - 201M.L. KingAAAA
Fri, Oct 1047.88AAAAAEast Paulding85.7%29 - 1415AlexanderAAAAA
Thu, Oct 0947.69AAAAAAGrayson99.9%49 - 049Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1047.59AA PublicLakeview Ft. Oglethorpe60.2%28 - 262SonoravilleAA Public
Fri, Oct 1047.18AAAAAAWalton94.8%37 - 1324CherokeeAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1046.64AAA PublicCairo89.4%28 - 820MonroeAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1046.37AAAAMarist98.2%36 - 036St. Pius XAAAA
Fri, Oct 1046.14AAAAWalnut Grove60.4%17 - 143East ForsythAAAA
Fri, Oct 1045.94AAAAKell96.1%34 - 034Westminster (Atlanta)AAAA
Fri, Oct 1045.45AAAACartersville99.3%42 - 042AllatoonaAAAA
Fri, Oct 1045.37AAAAAGlynn Academy87.2%31 - 1417South EffinghamAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1045.12AA PublicRockmart89.2%34 - 1420North Cobb ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 1044.96AAAAHarris County54.8%21 - 192Starr's MillAAAA
Fri, Oct 1044.49A Division I PublicJeff Davis70.2%21 - 147Bacon CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1044.48AAA PublicWhitewater84.4%28 - 1414SpaldingAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1044.33GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy71.8%24 - 159First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 1043.70AAAALocust Grove93.7%31 - 625McDonoughAAAA
Thu, Oct 0943.65AA PublicColumbia68.5%21 - 147Miller GroveAA Public
Fri, Oct 1043.57AAA PublicJenkins96.9%37 - 730Southeast BullochAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1043.07AAAAAWoodward Academy97.2%35 - 035DunwoodyAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1042.84AAAADalton62.7%32 - 284CedartownAAAA
Fri, Oct 1042.55AAA PublicPickens85.0%28 - 1414ChestateeAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1042.09AAAAASouth Paulding78.2%32 - 2111Kennesaw MountainAAAAA
Thu, Oct 0941.54AAAAAACentral Gwinnett72.5%26 - 179Mountain ViewAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1041.04A Division I PublicSwainsboro92.9%30 - 624Savannah Country DaySmaller Private
Thu, Oct 0940.77AAAAGriffin92.5%35 - 1421Northside (Columbus)AAAA
Fri, Oct 1040.34AAAAAEffingham County93.1%33 - 825EvansAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1039.62AAAACambridge98.1%37 - 037CentennialAAAA
Fri, Oct 1039.36A Division IIScreven County77.9%22 - 1210MetterA Division II
Fri, Oct 1039.33AAA PublicBaldwin67.7%30 - 246HephzibahAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1038.72AAAAAAWest Forsyth98.9%41 - 041South ForsythAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1038.46AAA PublicJefferson99.2%42 - 042East HallAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1037.66A Division IIBowdon92.5%34 - 1222Mount Zion (Carroll)A Division II
Fri, Oct 1037.56AAAAJones County95.5%37 - 1225Eagle's Landing ChristianAAAA
Fri, Oct 1036.86AAAAARome99.6%44 - 044Lithia SpringsAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1036.84AAAAAAMcEachern99.8%42 - 042PebblebrookAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1036.83AA PublicPike County51.4%21 - 210Westside (Macon)AA Public
Fri, Oct 1036.26Smaller PrivateWesleyan85.1%28 - 1414King's Ridge ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 1036.10AAA PublicGilmer83.1%28 - 1414LaFayetteAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1035.76AAAAAANewton99.4%42 - 042Heritage (Conyers)AAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1035.47A Division I PublicRabun County91.8%31 - 823Oglethorpe CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1035.25AAAAOla96.7%30 - 030Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAA
Fri, Oct 1035.06A Division I PublicHaralson County81.1%27 - 1413TempleA Division I Public
Thu, Oct 0934.99AAAAAASouth Gwinnett97.8%35 - 035Heritage (Conyers)AAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1034.95A Division I PublicWorth County98.9%43 - 637BerrienA Division I Public
Thu, Oct 0934.89AAAAAGreenbrier71.6%28 - 217Lakeside (Evans)AAAAA
Fri, Oct 1034.41AAA PublicDawson County64.3%22 - 175White CountyAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1033.52Smaller PrivateSavannah Christian94.9%34 - 727VidaliaA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1033.20GIAA AAAA-AAABulloch Academy75.3%27 - 1611Frederica AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 1033.14AAAAALassiter89.0%33 - 1419RiverwoodAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1032.73AA PublicCook92.5%31 - 724Tattnall CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 1032.47A Division IICharlton County64.9%30 - 255Irwin CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1032.46AAAAAADenmark98.8%38 - 038Forsyth CentralAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1031.72AAAAACreekview95.7%34 - 034PopeAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1031.60A Division I PublicHeard County96.8%38 - 731DarlingtonSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 1029.90A Division IIHawkinsville74.9%28 - 208Telfair CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1029.70GIAA AAAA-AAAWestfield School78.7%24 - 1311Calvary ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 1029.46A Division IIBryan County57.4%18 - 144McIntosh County AcademyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1029.14GIAA AAAA-AAABrookstone87.6%32 - 1418St. Anne-PacelliGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 1028.94AAA PublicOconee County97.0%35 - 035West HallAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1028.76AAA PublicAdairsville78.3%28 - 1513RidgelandAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1028.69A Division I PublicElbert County87.4%27 - 720Banks CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1028.59A Division IIWilcox County88.4%28 - 1018Dooly CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1027.95A Division I PublicSocial Circle90.0%35 - 1619McNairA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1027.30AA PublicKIPP Atlanta Collegiate88.1%27 - 720TherrellAA Public
Fri, Oct 1026.98AAAAAACarrollton100.0%50 - 050Chapel HillAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1026.82AAAAStockbridge99.0%41 - 041Union GroveAAAA
Fri, Oct 1026.53GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor94.0%31 - 625Tiftarea AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 1025.97AAA PublicBeach79.2%27 - 1413Johnson (Savannah)AAA Public
Fri, Oct 1025.54AA PublicCoahulla Creek74.3%24 - 1410Murray CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 1025.33AAAAAAHarrison99.6%42 - 042South CobbAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1025.02AAAAAMcIntosh96.1%33 - 033BannekerAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1024.99A Division IIAtkinson County78.7%35 - 2411Crawford CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1024.94A Division IILincoln County97.3%38 - 731Washington-WilkesA Division II
Fri, Oct 1024.84A Division IIJohnson County95.5%39 - 1425Wilkinson CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1024.69AAAAHiram96.8%41 - 1328Woodland (Cartersville)AAAA
Fri, Oct 1024.64AAAAJonesboro99.6%42 - 042Mundy's MillAAAA
Thu, Oct 0924.23AAAAPace Academy87.3%21 - 021MidtownAAAA
Fri, Oct 1023.91AAAAAClarke Central93.7%29 - 029LoganvilleAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1023.88A Division I PublicPepperell94.2%35 - 1223ModelA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1023.29Smaller PrivateChristian Heritage90.8%34 - 1420ChattoogaA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1022.72A Division I PublicPutnam County90.0%33 - 1419TowersA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 1022.54AA PublicSouth Atlanta54.5%22 - 211SalemAA Public
Fri, Oct 1021.55AA PublicCallaway98.9%34 - 034RutlandAA Public
Fri, Oct 1021.48A Division IIWarren County76.7%20 - 713Lake Oconee AcademyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1021.06AAAAAAPaulding County87.7%31 - 1417OsborneAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1020.81Smaller PrivateAthens Academy98.3%41 - 635Providence ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 1019.82AAAAAHabersham Central98.6%38 - 038AlcovyAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1019.35AAAAARoswell100.0%51 - 051ChattahoocheeAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1019.29A Division IIEmanuel County Institute96.3%40 - 1327PortalA Division II
Fri, Oct 1019.01AAA PublicLong County94.7%38 - 1424Windsor ForestAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1018.76GIAA AA-ASouthwest Georgia Academy75.0%28 - 1810Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 1018.73AAAALithonia98.6%35 - 035North SpringsAAAA
Fri, Oct 1018.71AAAAAChamblee95.2%35 - 1025Tri-CitiesAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1018.56Smaller PrivateMount Vernon82.6%31 - 1714GreenvilleA Division II
Fri, Oct 1018.18A Division IITurner County93.0%33 - 726Lanier CountyA Division II
Sat, Oct 1118.06A Division IIMitchell County91.9%31 - 823PelhamA Division II
Fri, Oct 1017.17GIAA AAAA-AAAValwood School94.6%35 - 1322Terrell AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 1017.04GIAA AA-ASouthland Academy88.4%30 - 1317Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 1017.01AA PublicHapeville Charter99.6%36 - 036WashingtonAA Public
Fri, Oct 1016.48AAAAALanier99.8%45 - 045Johns CreekAAAAA
Fri, Oct 1016.08AAA PublicSandy Creek100.0%49 - 049Fayette CountyAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1015.05Smaller PrivateCalvary Day99.7%46 - 046IslandsAAA Public
Fri, Oct 1013.79AAAAMaynard Jackson95.5%32 - 032Forest ParkAAAA
Fri, Oct 1013.62A Division IITreutlen94.9%33 - 330Montgomery CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 1012.62A Division IIGeorgia Military Prep61.2%21 - 165Hancock CentralA Division II
Sat, Oct 1111.29AA PublicLaney99.1%40 - 040ButlerAA Public
Fri, Oct 1010.23AAA PublicWestside (Augusta)99.8%40 - 040Cross CreekAAA Public
Fri, Oct 109.33GIAA AA-AGatewood School70.8%22 - 148Briarwood AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 108.23GAPPS AALanier Christian89.2%21 - 021Mount Bethel ChristianA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 107.34GIAA AAAA-AAAPiedmont Academy57.8%20 - 173Riverside PrepGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 107.08A Division IIClaxton62.1%17 - 134SavannahA Division II
Fri, Oct 106.94AAA PublicLiberty County99.4%42 - 042GrovesAAA Public
Fri, Oct 106.12Smaller PrivateFellowship Christian99.9%47 - 047Mount Pisgah ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 104.73A Division IIRandolph-Clay96.3%35 - 035Terrell CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 103.72GIAA AAAA-AAAStratford Academy99.1%37 - 037Tattnall SquareGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 103.50AAAANorthview87.9%28 - 1216ClarkstonAAAA
Thu, Oct 092.90AA PublicColumbus98.8%35 - 035HardawayAA Public
Fri, Oct 101.98AAA PublicLumpkin County99.8%46 - 046Johnson (Gainesville)AAA Public
Fri, Oct 101.38GIAA AA-AFlint River Academy92.0%34 - 1222Windsor AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 10-0.67AA PublicBurke County99.9%45 - 045JoseyAA Public
Fri, Oct 10-1.02GIAA AAAA-AAALakeview Academy92.5%34 - 1321King's AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 10-1.33AAAACreekside100.0%62 - 062DrewAAAA
Fri, Oct 10-1.87GIAA AAAA-AAAPinewood Christian96.1%35 - 728St. Andrew's SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 10-2.06A Division I PublicGordon Lee99.7%44 - 044ArmucheeA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 10-3.24GAPPS AACreekside Christian67.7%28 - 217Cherokee ChristianGAPPS AA
Fri, Oct 10-5.68GIAA AA-AEdmund Burke Academy95.6%28 - 028Augusta PrepGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 10-5.72A Division IIGlascock County76.6%34 - 2311Twiggs CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 10-9.45Smaller PrivateWhitefield Academy99.9%47 - 047B.E.S.T. AcademyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 10-10.50GIAA AA-ACentral Fellowship Christian92.7%35 - 1322Heritage (Newnan)GIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 10-13.87A Division I PublicLamar County99.9%43 - 043Utopian AcademyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 10-13.97Smaller PrivateLandmark Christian100.0%49 - 049WalkerSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 10-14.42AA PublicThomson100.0%50 - 050Glenn HillsAA Public
Fri, Oct 10-26.67A Division IISouthwest Georgia STEM78.0%35 - 269Calhoun CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 10-37.43A Division IITaylor County100.0%47 - 047Central (Talbotton)A Division II
Fri, Oct 10-44.04AAAASoutheast Whitfield99.8%35 - 035Cross KeysAAAA

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Loren Maxwell

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