AJC Varsity

Maxwell Week 8 projections: South Ga powerhouses clash in top matchup

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns.
Creekview won at Lassiter on Sept. 5, 2025, and the Grizzlies will be a heavy favorite to beat Riverwood on Friday, according to the Maxwell projections. (Oscar Guevara Saenz for the AJC)
Creekview won at Lassiter on Sept. 5, 2025, and the Grizzlies will be a heavy favorite to beat Riverwood on Friday, according to the Maxwell projections. (Oscar Guevara Saenz for the AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
1 hour ago

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

Favorite Projection Underdog
Date Game Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
Fri, Oct 0386.57AAAAAAValdosta81.6%32 - 2012Colquitt CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0379.78AAAAAANorth Gwinnett79.5%24 - 1212Peachtree RidgeAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0378.69AAAAAARichmond Hill58.9%21 - 192Camden CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0377.80AAAAAAMcEachern75.7%24 - 1410HarrisonAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0377.04AAAAAABuford96.2%35 - 035Collins HillAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0374.14AAAAAACarrollton94.6%35 - 1025WestlakeAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0373.56AAAACartersville81.1%34 - 2113CassAAAA
Fri, Oct 0371.95AAAAALee County70.1%27 - 207CoffeeAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0370.57A Division I PublicThomasville64.6%30 - 255Worth CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0369.44AAAAAAWalton64.4%22 - 175MariettaAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0369.17AAAABlessed Trinity66.4%24 - 195KellAAAA
Fri, Oct 0369.12AAAAAMilton94.0%28 - 028LanierAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0365.31AAAAStockbridge51.2%23 - 230OlaAAAA
Fri, Oct 0364.65A Division I PublicSwainsboro53.1%21 - 201Toombs CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0364.16AAAAAAMill Creek81.9%32 - 2012DaculaAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0363.96AAAAAANorcross80.2%31 - 2011ParkviewAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0363.09AAAAARome90.2%31 - 1219Villa RicaAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0363.04AAA PublicLaGrange80.3%28 - 1711WhitewaterAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0361.98AAAAAADouglas County97.1%38 - 632East CowetaAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0361.40AAAAAADenmark75.2%22 - 139North ForsythAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0361.35AAAAAALowndes98.3%41 - 041Tift CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0360.81AAAAAALambert65.1%27 - 216North AtlantaAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0360.64AAAAASprayberry72.3%27 - 1710CreekviewAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0359.48Smaller PrivateHoly Innocents53.4%14 - 140Hapeville CharterAA Public
Thu, Oct 0259.44AAAASouthwest DeKalb63.9%21 - 165LithoniaAAAA
Fri, Oct 0359.43AA PublicPierce County82.1%26 - 1214CookAA Public
Fri, Oct 0358.40AAAAEastside63.2%20 - 146Walnut GroveAAAA
Fri, Oct 0358.27AAA PublicJefferson95.8%34 - 034Monroe AreaAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0358.21AAAAAGainesville95.8%36 - 729SeckingerAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0358.04AA PublicBurke County52.5%27 - 252ThomsonAA Public
Fri, Oct 0357.40AAA PublicTroup90.6%34 - 1420Upson-LeeAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0356.98A Division I PublicNortheast70.1%27 - 198Bleckley CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0356.08AAAAAANorth Paulding86.6%34 - 1717EtowahAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0355.64AAAAPerry72.2%27 - 1710Wayne CountyAAAA
Fri, Oct 0355.34AAAAAANewton94.2%35 - 1223GrovetownAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0354.64Smaller PrivatePrince Avenue Christian75.6%29 - 209Stephens CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 0354.42AAAABenedictine97.0%35 - 035Warner RobinsAAAA
Fri, Oct 0353.95AAAAGriffin61.2%24 - 204Harris CountyAAAA
Fri, Oct 0353.92AAAAAClarke Central52.6%21 - 201Habersham CentralAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0353.50AAA PublicNorth Clayton72.5%24 - 1410LuellaAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0353.45AAA PublicMary Persons55.3%22 - 211Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)Smaller Private
Fri, Oct 0353.25AAAAAAArcher88.2%34 - 1618Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0352.89AAAAANew Manchester84.0%28 - 1414South PauldingAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0352.85Smaller PrivateHebron Christian96.1%35 - 035Hart CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 0352.14AAAAABrunswick94.8%38 - 1424Bradwell InstituteAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0352.06AAAANorth Oconee99.7%44 - 044Madison CountyAAAA
Fri, Oct 0351.60AAAAAAWheeler64.9%33 - 285CherokeeAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0351.03AAAAAHughes99.7%47 - 047McIntoshAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0351.02AAAAAThomas County Central99.6%42 - 042VeteransAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0350.88AAAACambridge93.0%33 - 726Westminster (Atlanta)AAAA
Fri, Oct 0350.86AAAAWare County96.0%36 - 729New HampsteadAAAA
Fri, Oct 0350.85AAA PublicHeritage (Ringgold)50.7%22 - 220GilmerAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0350.56AAA PublicStephenson82.3%31 - 1912Cedar GroveAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0350.52AAAAANewnan87.5%32 - 1418DutchtownAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0350.03AA PublicEast Jackson63.9%22 - 184Franklin CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 0350.01AA PublicNorth Murray80.2%32 - 2012SonoravilleAA Public
Fri, Oct 0349.59AAAAASequoyah96.7%40 - 1030LassiterAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0348.74AAA PublicPeach County94.6%35 - 728DoughertyAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0348.58AAAAAShiloh70.8%21 - 138DecaturAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0348.50AAA PublicWestover65.0%24 - 204BainbridgeAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0347.77AAA PublicBaldwin58.9%28 - 244Richmond AcademyAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0347.46AAAAHiram61.2%24 - 204CedartownAAAA
Fri, Oct 0346.73AAAACentral (Carrollton)98.6%40 - 040Starr's MillAAAA
Fri, Oct 0346.26A Division I PublicBremen62.1%21 - 174PepperellA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0346.04AAA PublicSandy Creek98.5%35 - 035SpaldingAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0345.93AAAAAKennesaw Mountain60.1%26 - 215AlexanderAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0345.78Smaller PrivateSavannah Christian86.9%28 - 1216Savannah Country DaySmaller Private
Fri, Oct 0345.71AAAAAASouth Forsyth52.5%21 - 210AlpharettaAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0345.36AA PublicSumter County93.7%31 - 625SpencerAA Public
Fri, Oct 0345.19AAAAMays65.4%21 - 165Maynard JacksonAAAA
Fri, Oct 0345.15A Division I PublicDublin82.5%26 - 1016ACE CharterA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0345.05AAAAJones County92.3%31 - 724McDonoughAAAA
Fri, Oct 0345.01AA PublicCarver (Atlanta)96.5%33 - 033KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA Public
Fri, Oct 0344.51A Division I PublicDodge County78.0%27 - 1413Washington CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0344.43Smaller PrivateCalvary Day93.8%37 - 1423Long CountyAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0343.89AAAAAHouston County98.6%35 - 035Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAA
Fri, Oct 0343.73AAAAAGlynn Academy89.9%29 - 821EvansAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0343.53AAAAAEast Paulding90.2%34 - 1420Lithia SpringsAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0343.35AAAAASouth Effingham50.3%20 - 200GreenbrierAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0342.63AAAAEast Forsyth57.3%15 - 141Cedar ShoalsAAAA
Fri, Oct 0342.25GIAA AAAA-AAAStratford Academy71.8%27 - 198First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 0342.10AAAAAArabia Mountain53.3%21 - 210DunwoodyAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0341.97A Division IIBowdon89.2%33 - 1419ManchesterA Division II
Fri, Oct 0341.35A Division I PublicRabun County91.9%32 - 824CommerceA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0340.74A Division IIClinch County87.4%35 - 1817Charlton CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0340.52AAAAEagle's Landing79.7%28 - 1612Eagle's Landing ChristianAAAA
Fri, Oct 0340.41AAA PublicOconee County94.1%36 - 1323East HallAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0339.90A Division I PublicHeard County91.1%34 - 1321TempleA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0339.88A Division I PublicJeff Davis84.2%31 - 1714BerrienA Division I Public
Thu, Oct 0239.77AA PublicCallaway93.7%33 - 726Westside (Macon)AA Public
Fri, Oct 0339.64AA PublicJackson53.2%24 - 231Pike CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 0339.63AAA PublicHarlem92.0%30 - 723HephzibahAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0339.55AA PublicRinggold82.7%28 - 1414Union CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 0339.49AAAACreekside99.8%45 - 045Pace AcademyAAAA
Fri, Oct 0339.43A Division IIWilcox County73.1%27 - 189HawkinsvilleA Division II
Fri, Oct 0339.02AAAAAAHillgrove99.2%41 - 041Paulding CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0338.67AAAAAChamblee59.6%26 - 215Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAA
Fri, Oct 0338.54AAA PublicNorthwest Whitfield93.7%31 - 328LaFayetteAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0337.67AAAAAStatesboro86.4%31 - 1417Lakeside (Evans)AAAAA
Fri, Oct 0337.51A Division IIIrwin County59.8%22 - 202Turner CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0337.39AAAAARiver Ridge97.9%34 - 034RiverwoodAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0337.01A Division I PublicEast Laurens66.1%24 - 195SouthwestA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0336.77AAAALocust Grove97.2%34 - 034Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAA
Fri, Oct 0336.41A Division IIScreven County82.7%27 - 1314Bryan CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0336.35A Division IITaylor County51.0%20 - 200Schley CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0336.12AA PublicCrisp County88.2%32 - 1418Tattnall CountyAA Public
Fri, Oct 0336.11GIAA AAAA-AAAWestfield School68.2%27 - 207Strong Rock ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 0335.64A Division IITrion53.1%21 - 201Mount Zion (Carroll)A Division II
Fri, Oct 0334.20Smaller PrivateWesleyan91.2%31 - 823Mount VernonSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 0334.19A Division IITreutlen59.2%23 - 212Telfair CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0334.15AAAAAAGrayson100.0%51 - 051Heritage (Conyers)AAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0334.11AAAAAAWest Forsyth99.2%42 - 042Forsyth CentralAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0333.31A Division IIJenkins County66.6%26 - 206McIntosh County AcademyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0333.09A Division IIEarly County90.8%32 - 1220Randolph-ClayA Division II
Fri, Oct 0333.09AAAAAABrookwood99.1%41 - 041MeadowcreekAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0332.60AAAAAWoodstock95.0%33 - 330PopeAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0332.55AA PublicLakeview Ft. Oglethorpe91.0%31 - 922Coahulla CreekAA Public
Thu, Oct 0232.32AAAANorthside (Columbus)83.5%32 - 1715Mundy's MillAAAA
Fri, Oct 0331.78AAAATucker94.4%35 - 728Druid HillsAAAA
Fri, Oct 0331.53AAAAAJackson County99.5%41 - 041ApalacheeAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0331.26GIAA AAAA-AAAValwood School84.0%31 - 1615Tiftarea AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 0331.06A Division IIAtkinson County56.5%27 - 234Southwest Georgia AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 0330.88AAAAAWinder-Barrow85.2%28 - 1315LoganvilleAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0330.46A Division I PublicHaralson County88.9%28 - 721ModelA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0330.45A Division I PublicJasper County90.7%34 - 1321McNairA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0330.44AAA PublicWestside (Augusta)96.7%35 - 035HowardAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0330.27AAAAHampton96.9%35 - 035Union GroveAAAA
Fri, Oct 0329.80GIAA AAAA-AAACalvary Christian68.7%24 - 177St. Anne-PacelliGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 0329.58AAAAAACampbell97.0%35 - 035South CobbAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0329.17A Division IISeminole County87.8%29 - 1316Miller CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0328.99AAAAALovejoy99.1%38 - 038BannekerAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0328.97Smaller PrivateAthens Academy97.1%38 - 632Banks CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0328.93AA PublicColumbia93.5%28 - 028South AtlantaAA Public
Fri, Oct 0328.56Smaller PrivateLovett95.7%28 - 028TherrellAA Public
Fri, Oct 0328.39Smaller PrivateChristian Heritage84.5%30 - 1416Gordon CentralA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0327.40AAA PublicCherokee Bluff98.1%41 - 635West HallAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0327.03AAA PublicCalhoun99.4%42 - 042RidgelandAAA Public
Thu, Oct 0226.98AA PublicCarver (Columbus)99.7%42 - 042ShawAA Public
Fri, Oct 0326.69Smaller PrivateNorth Cobb Christian92.0%31 - 724Murray CountyAA Public
Thu, Oct 0226.53AAAAM.L. King94.6%28 - 028MidtownAAAA
Fri, Oct 0326.41AAAAAllatoona95.2%35 - 728Woodland (Cartersville)AAAA
Fri, Oct 0326.31GIAA AA-ABrentwood School90.5%28 - 721Edmund Burke AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 0325.73GIAA AAAA-AAAFrederica Academy73.7%27 - 1710Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 0325.72A Division I PublicElbert County93.7%33 - 726Providence ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 0325.44AAA PublicLiberty County96.5%34 - 034Johnson (Savannah)AAA Public
Fri, Oct 0325.37AAAAAAPebblebrook90.5%29 - 722OsborneAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0325.13AAAAARoswell99.9%49 - 049Johns CreekAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0325.09A Division I PublicGordon Lee94.0%30 - 030Dade CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0324.94AAAAANorthgate99.6%42 - 042MorrowAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0324.75A Division IILake Oconee Academy55.0%21 - 210Washington-WilkesA Division II
Thu, Oct 0224.25AA PublicMiller Grove92.4%34 - 1123RedanAA Public
Fri, Oct 0324.23AAAAAAMountain View91.0%34 - 1321DiscoveryAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0323.11A Division IIWarren County78.0%29 - 209Greene CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0322.76GIAA AAAA-AAABethlehem Christian76.0%24 - 1410Lakeview AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 0321.94AAA PublicJenkins99.6%47 - 047Windsor ForestAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0321.73AAAAAADuluth98.6%42 - 042BerkmarAAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0320.78AA PublicMorgan County99.7%42 - 042RutlandAA Public
Fri, Oct 0320.50AAAAAWoodward Academy99.8%45 - 045Tri-CitiesAAAAA
Fri, Oct 0320.32A Division IIBrooks County98.7%38 - 038Lanier CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0320.12A Division I PublicLamar County97.4%35 - 035TowersA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0319.73AA PublicColumbus92.7%31 - 724GreenvilleA Division II
Fri, Oct 0318.85AAA PublicBeach91.0%31 - 823IslandsAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0318.34A Division IIWilkinson County79.4%29 - 1712Hancock CentralA Division II
Fri, Oct 0318.15AAAAMarist99.9%44 - 044North SpringsAAAA
Thu, Oct 0217.93AAA PublicDouglass99.4%36 - 036RiverdaleAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0317.85A Division I PublicFannin County95.1%35 - 728ChattoogaA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0314.88A Division IIWheeler County98.2%37 - 037Montgomery CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0314.49GIAA AAAA-AAAMount de Sales50.5%20 - 200Tattnall SquareGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 0314.17Smaller PrivateAquinas99.0%41 - 041Cross CreekAAA Public
Fri, Oct 0313.89GIAA AAAA-AAAGeorge Walton Academy95.8%31 - 031Piedmont AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 0313.39A Division IIMetter97.0%33 - 033ClaxtonA Division II
Thu, Oct 0213.24A Division I PublicJefferson County79.4%27 - 1413Central (Macon)A Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0310.92Smaller PrivateKing's Ridge Christian96.2%31 - 031Mount Pisgah ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 0310.77A Division I PublicFitzgerald99.6%36 - 036Brantley CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 0310.44A Division IIMitchell County96.6%32 - 032Terrell CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 0310.11A Division IIGeorgia Military Prep67.7%24 - 177Glascock CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 039.86GIAA AA-AGatewood School74.0%24 - 1410Thomas JeffersonGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 039.61A Division IIEmanuel County Institute98.9%35 - 035SavannahA Division II
Fri, Oct 039.28AAA PublicSoutheast Bulloch98.8%41 - 041GrovesAAA Public
Fri, Oct 038.52AAAAForest Park67.2%27 - 207DrewAAAA
Fri, Oct 037.43GIAA AAAA-AAATerrell Academy83.5%30 - 1515Windsor AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 036.22GIAA AAAA-AAALoganville Christian92.2%31 - 724Riverside PrepGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 035.57A Division IICrawford County93.5%38 - 1622Marion CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 035.39AAA PublicDawson County98.5%41 - 041Johnson (Gainesville)AAA Public
Fri, Oct 035.37GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor99.5%41 - 041Brookwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Oct 034.91GIAA AAAA-AAAAthens Christian80.9%28 - 1414King's AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Thu, Oct 023.88AAA PublicMount Zion (Jonesboro)99.7%42 - 042Stone MountainAAA Public
Fri, Oct 033.56AA PublicLaney99.6%42 - 042JoseyAA Public
Fri, Oct 032.90A Division I PublicCoosa86.6%33 - 1518ArmucheeA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 030.85GIAA AA-ABriarwood Academy85.4%28 - 1216Augusta PrepGIAA AA-A
Fri, Oct 030.44AAAASt. Pius X99.7%44 - 044ClarkstonAAAA
Fri, Oct 03-0.75A Division IISouthwest Georgia STEM69.6%23 - 158Baconton CharterA Division II
Fri, Oct 03-2.08AA PublicButler87.2%27 - 720Glenn HillsAA Public
Fri, Oct 03-4.19A Division IIJohnson County99.8%48 - 048Twiggs CountyA Division II
Fri, Oct 03-5.14Smaller PrivateLandmark Christian99.9%42 - 042B.E.S.T. AcademyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 03-8.19Smaller PrivateMount Paran Christian99.4%42 - 042WalkerSmaller Private
Fri, Oct 03-10.33AA PublicKendrick93.6%35 - 1322JordanAA Public
Fri, Oct 03-11.12A Division IIChattahoochee County96.0%27 - 027Central (Talbotton)A Division II
Fri, Oct 03-11.21A Division I PublicPutnam County99.8%43 - 043Utopian AcademyA Division I Public
Fri, Oct 03-30.39GAPPS AALanier Christian99.9%43 - 043Skipstone AcademyGAPPS AA
Fri, Oct 03-34.94GAPPS AACreekside Christian99.1%35 - 035Cross KeysAAAA

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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