AJC Varsity

Maxwell projections: 3 big games in South Georgia predicted to be close

Region 1-6A features top two games.
Creekview won at Lassiter on Sept. 5, 2025, and the Grizzlies will be a heavy favorite to beat Riverwood on Friday, according to the Maxwell projections. (Oscar Guevara Saenz for the AJC)
Creekview won at Lassiter on Sept. 5, 2025, and the Grizzlies will be a heavy favorite to beat Riverwood on Friday, according to the Maxwell projections. (Oscar Guevara Saenz for the AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
2 hours ago

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

Favorite Projection Underdog
Date Game Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
Fri, Sep 2687.27AAAAAAColquitt County54.4%24 - 222LowndesAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2685.50AAAAAACamden County52.7%31 - 310ValdostaAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2682.99AAAAWare County59.5%26 - 215BenedictineAAAA
Fri, Sep 2682.61AAAAAThomas County Central90.2%34 - 1420Lee CountyAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2680.75AAAAAAGrayson94.7%40 - 1525NewtonAAAAAA
Thu, Sep 2575.05AAAACentral (Carrollton)64.8%27 - 216JonesboroAAAA
Fri, Sep 2668.76AAAAAABrookwood60.8%28 - 244ParkviewAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2668.58AAAAMarist82.2%24 - 915Southwest DeKalbAAAA
Fri, Sep 2668.53AAAAAARichmond Hill67.3%25 - 196Tift CountyAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2667.75AAAACambridge65.3%31 - 274East CowetaAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2667.11AAAAAHughes98.5%45 - 1332NewnanAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2664.66AAAAStockbridge61.4%24 - 204Jones CountyAAAA
Fri, Sep 2663.30AA PublicCarver (Atlanta)80.5%21 - 714Hapeville CharterAA Public
Fri, Sep 2663.28AAAABlessed Trinity86.1%27 - 720Savannah ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Sep 2662.66AAA PublicNorth Hall58.6%27 - 243PickensAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2660.40A Division I PublicFitzgerald54.0%20 - 182Appling CountyAA Public
Fri, Sep 2660.05AAA PublicCherokee Bluff56.7%21 - 192Oconee CountyAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2660.02AAAAABrunswick90.4%32 - 1319Glynn AcademyAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2659.66AAAAAAPeachtree Ridge90.6%34 - 1420DuluthAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2658.60AAA PublicWhitewater53.6%26 - 242Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)Smaller Private
Fri, Sep 2658.32AAAAAMilton98.8%35 - 035SeckingerAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2657.95AAA PublicMary Persons53.5%21 - 210Upson-LeeAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2657.86Smaller PrivateHoly Innocents54.9%18 - 153LovettSmaller Private
Fri, Sep 2657.81AAAAAASouth Gwinnett78.6%21 - 714GrovetownAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2656.70AAA PublicPeach County87.1%29 - 1316WestoverAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2656.15AA PublicLaney53.9%24 - 222ThomsonAA Public
Fri, Sep 2656.01AAAAEastside72.1%28 - 208Madison CountyAAAA
Fri, Sep 2655.94AAA PublicCairo80.8%29 - 1712BainbridgeAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2655.86AAAAANorthgate88.3%27 - 720McIntoshAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2655.59AAA PublicNorthwest Whitfield61.2%22 - 193Heritage (Ringgold)AAA Public
Fri, Sep 2655.25Smaller PrivateHebron Christian95.5%35 - 728East JacksonAA Public
Fri, Sep 2654.87AAAAAACherokee50.6%28 - 280EtowahAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2654.83AAAAAAMill Creek93.7%34 - 727Central GwinnettAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2653.98AAAAAHouston County97.0%36 - 036VeteransAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2653.81AAAAPerry81.9%27 - 1314New HampsteadAAAA
Fri, Sep 2653.56AAAALocust Grove81.6%29 - 1613Eagle's LandingAAAA
Thu, Sep 2553.48AAAACreekside99.0%42 - 042M.L. KingAAAA
Fri, Sep 2653.16A Division I PublicHeard County61.0%21 - 192Haralson CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2653.01AA PublicRockmart84.1%32 - 1715SonoravilleAA Public
Fri, Sep 2652.88A Division I PublicThomasville94.4%35 - 728Jeff DavisA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2652.88AAA PublicWest Laurens80.2%29 - 1712BaldwinAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2652.71GIAA AAAA-AAAStratford Academy53.0%23 - 212John Milledge AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2652.32AAA PublicStephenson83.5%28 - 1414North ClaytonAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2652.03AAAAAANorth Atlanta82.4%27 - 1314AlpharettaAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2651.92AAAAHarris County56.2%20 - 173Northside (Columbus)AAAA
Fri, Sep 2651.65AA PublicStephens County56.9%21 - 183Franklin CountyAA Public
Fri, Sep 2651.35Smaller PrivatePrince Avenue Christian92.8%34 - 1024Hart CountyAA Public
Fri, Sep 2650.53AAAADalton51.1%28 - 280HiramAAAA
Thu, Sep 2550.10AAAAFlowery Branch83.7%27 - 1314East ForsythAAAA
Fri, Sep 2650.06AAAAAADouglas County99.5%40 - 040ColumbiaAA Public
Fri, Sep 2649.69AAA PublicHarlem77.5%28 - 1711Richmond AcademyAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2649.49AAA PublicLiberty County51.7%20 - 200Southeast BullochAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2648.97AAAAACoffee96.1%28 - 028Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAA
Fri, Sep 2648.63AAAAANew Manchester87.8%28 - 1216AlexanderAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2648.29A Division IIEarly County65.0%22 - 175Seminole CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2648.24AAAAWarner Robins88.8%31 - 1318Wayne CountyAAAA
Fri, Sep 2648.07AAAAAGreenbrier55.1%24 - 222Bradwell InstituteAAAAA
Thu, Sep 2547.95AAA PublicCedar Grove79.9%28 - 1513Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAA Public
Fri, Sep 2647.86AAAAAHabersham Central73.6%28 - 208Winder-BarrowAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2647.84AAAAAACollins Hill97.5%33 - 033Mountain ViewAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2647.19AAA PublicMonroe85.1%29 - 1415DoughertyAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2646.94A Division IIMetter55.7%20 - 182Emanuel County InstituteA Division II
Fri, Sep 2646.90AAAAADunwoody55.0%20 - 182DecaturAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2646.52AAAAAShiloh74.2%22 - 139ChambleeAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2646.41A Division IIClinch County80.1%27 - 1413Irwin CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2646.04A Division I PublicPutnam County57.7%24 - 213Social CircleA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2645.92Smaller PrivateGreater Atlanta Christian82.4%30 - 1713Dawson CountyAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2645.58A Division I PublicElbert County53.2%23 - 212CommerceA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2644.72AAAAAWoodward Academy97.5%35 - 035Arabia MountainAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2643.74AAA PublicCalhoun96.2%37 - 730AdairsvilleAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2643.70AAAAHampton87.1%27 - 720Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAA
Fri, Sep 2643.66AA PublicCallaway93.2%31 - 625Pike CountyAA Public
Fri, Sep 2643.60AA PublicMorgan County95.4%40 - 1426Westside (Macon)AA Public
Fri, Sep 2643.48AAAAAEvans68.3%21 - 147South EffinghamAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2643.23A Division IIWheeler County62.8%24 - 204HawkinsvilleA Division II
Fri, Sep 2643.18A Division I PublicBacon County53.5%27 - 243BerrienA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2643.12AA PublicLakeview Ft. Oglethorpe71.7%28 - 208Union CountyAA Public
Fri, Sep 2642.96AAAAAVilla Rica92.3%33 - 825Lithia SpringsAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2642.90A Division I PublicDodge County76.1%26 - 1412SouthwestA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2642.75A Division I PublicBremen71.6%27 - 189TempleA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2642.52Smaller PrivateWhitefield Academy82.2%29 - 1613Mount Paran ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Sep 2642.47AAA PublicMonroe Area88.2%36 - 2016East HallAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2642.06A Division IIScreven County63.6%25 - 205Jenkins CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2641.64AAAANorth Oconee99.9%43 - 043Cedar ShoalsAAAA
Fri, Sep 2640.93GIAA AAAA-AAABrookstone78.1%28 - 1513Calvary ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2640.20A Division IIManchester72.9%26 - 1610TrionA Division II
Fri, Sep 2639.94AAAAAEffingham County94.2%38 - 1424Lakeside (Evans)AAAAA
Fri, Sep 2639.78A Division I PublicPepperell76.1%28 - 208DarlingtonSmaller Private
Fri, Sep 2639.70A Division IIBrooks County92.4%31 - 724Turner CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2639.53AAAAAARockdale County77.1%28 - 1612Heritage (Conyers)AAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2639.51AAA PublicLumpkin County89.9%30 - 1020White CountyAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2639.50AAAAEagle's Landing Christian76.2%27 - 1512McDonoughAAAA
Fri, Sep 2638.99A Division IIWilcox County73.3%25 - 1411Telfair CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2637.97AAAACentennial81.7%27 - 1413Chapel HillAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2637.77AAAAAClarke Central87.9%28 - 820ApalacheeAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2637.67Smaller PrivateAthens Academy93.6%34 - 727Oglethorpe CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2637.38A Division I PublicACE Charter83.4%28 - 1414East LaurensA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2637.04A Division IISchley County64.2%28 - 217Macon CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2636.79A Division I PublicToombs County97.5%38 - 038Tattnall CountyAA Public
Fri, Sep 2636.35AAAAADutchtown87.7%30 - 1317BannekerAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2635.60GIAA AAAA-AAAWestfield School68.4%22 - 157Pinewood ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2635.34Smaller PrivateFellowship Christian98.9%41 - 041Mount VernonSmaller Private
Fri, Sep 2635.16AAAALithonia92.0%28 - 622Druid HillsAAAA
Fri, Sep 2635.01GIAA AAAA-AAAStrong Rock Christian51.8%25 - 241St. Anne-PacelliGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2634.94AAAAAANorcross99.1%41 - 041MeadowcreekAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2634.82AAAAStarr's Mill87.7%28 - 1018Mundy's MillAAAA
Thu, Sep 2534.29AA PublicColumbus62.8%21 - 165ShawAA Public
Fri, Sep 2633.67AA PublicPierce County99.1%41 - 041VidaliaA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2633.48AAA PublicLaFayette66.3%22 - 166RidgelandAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2633.22AAAAALakeside (Atlanta)70.5%27 - 207Tri-CitiesAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2633.20Smaller PrivateAquinas96.2%38 - 1028HowardAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2633.19AA PublicMiller Grove85.4%33 - 1716Greene CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2632.71A Division I PublicFannin County84.8%28 - 1315Gordon CentralA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2632.23AAAACass99.1%42 - 042Woodland (Cartersville)AAAA
Fri, Sep 2632.04AAAAOla98.5%36 - 036Union GroveAAAA
Fri, Sep 2630.82A Division I PublicLamar County94.5%31 - 031McNairA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2630.60AAAAALovejoy99.2%39 - 039MorrowAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2630.58AAAAAGainesville99.9%47 - 047Johns CreekAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2630.58A Division I PublicRabun County97.6%35 - 035Providence ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Sep 2630.27AAA PublicJefferson99.8%43 - 043West HallAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2630.12AA PublicJackson80.6%23 - 914RutlandAA Public
Fri, Sep 2629.97GIAA AAAA-AAAGeorge Walton Academy80.7%28 - 1414Loganville ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2629.23AAAAALanier99.2%42 - 042ChattahoocheeAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2629.10Smaller PrivateKing's Ridge Christian67.9%21 - 147Flint River AcademyGIAA AA-A
Fri, Sep 2628.87A Division IIPelham67.7%28 - 217Randolph-ClayA Division II
Fri, Sep 2628.54AAA PublicSpalding93.9%31 - 328Fayette CountyAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2627.47A Division I PublicBleckley County96.3%37 - 730Jefferson CountyA Division I Public
Sat, Sep 2727.14AAAAMaynard Jackson93.7%31 - 625MidtownAAAA
Thu, Sep 2526.40AAAAAJackson County99.6%42 - 042AlcovyAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2626.21AAAAAADacula98.6%41 - 041DiscoveryAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2625.62AAAAAANorth Gwinnett100.0%48 - 048BerkmarAAAAAA
Fri, Sep 2625.39GIAA AA-ASouthland Academy80.5%29 - 1712Terrell AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2625.13A Division IICharlton County88.7%35 - 1619Lanier CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2624.02A Division IIDooly County67.0%24 - 177Montgomery CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2623.94A Division IIMount Zion (Carroll)86.1%33 - 1716GreenvilleA Division II
Fri, Sep 2622.79AAAATucker97.6%37 - 037NorthviewAAAA
Fri, Sep 2622.49AAA PublicLuella97.8%31 - 031RiverdaleAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2622.46AAAASt. Pius X97.4%35 - 035North SpringsAAAA
Fri, Sep 2621.13A Division I PublicGordon Lee96.4%35 - 035ChattoogaA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2621.08GIAA AAAA-AAABethlehem Christian85.3%27 - 918Athens ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2621.07GIAA AAAA-AAABulloch Academy94.7%31 - 031Tattnall SquareGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2621.02AAA PublicHephzibah93.2%34 - 727Cross CreekAAA Public
Fri, Sep 2620.57A Division IIJohnson County96.9%34 - 034Hancock CentralA Division II
Fri, Sep 2619.97A Division IIBryan County87.3%28 - 721ClaxtonA Division II
Fri, Sep 2619.92AA PublicTherrell90.2%28 - 622WashingtonAA Public
Fri, Sep 2619.58Smaller PrivateChristian Heritage95.1%36 - 1026CoosaA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2618.65A Division IIMiller County84.8%29 - 1415Terrell CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2618.22AAAAMays98.5%35 - 035Forest ParkAAAA
Fri, Sep 2617.74GIAA AAAA-AAAFirst Presbyterian96.8%35 - 035Mount de SalesGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2616.13Smaller PrivateWesleyan98.9%35 - 035Mount Pisgah ChristianSmaller Private
Fri, Sep 2615.68GIAA AA-ABrentwood School97.6%37 - 037Briarwood AcademyGIAA AA-A
Thu, Sep 2514.88AA PublicSpencer98.2%35 - 035KendrickAA Public
Fri, Sep 2614.70A Division I PublicWorth County99.8%42 - 042Brantley CountyA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2614.47GAPPS AALanier Christian83.0%28 - 1414Rock Springs ChristianGIAA AA-A
Fri, Sep 2614.30GIAA AA-AEdmund Burke Academy87.3%27 - 720Thomas JeffersonGIAA AA-A
Fri, Sep 2614.27A Division IIMarion County62.1%21 - 174Chattahoochee CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2613.75GIAA AAAA-AAALakeview Academy73.2%26 - 1511Riverside PrepGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2613.54A Division I PublicTowers76.3%22 - 139Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
Fri, Sep 2612.67A Division IIPortal87.1%29 - 1316SavannahA Division II
Fri, Sep 2612.28A Division IIWilkinson County91.6%35 - 1421Glascock CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 2611.67A Division I PublicWashington County98.2%36 - 036Central (Macon)A Division I Public
Fri, Sep 2611.37GIAA AA-ASouthwest Georgia Academy94.7%34 - 727Brookwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 2611.14AAAAPace Academy98.2%36 - 036DrewAAAA
Fri, Sep 2611.02GIAA AA-ATrinity Christian (Dublin)93.1%29 - 326Central Fellowship ChristianGIAA AA-A
Fri, Sep 2610.70AA PublicButler57.6%21 - 192JoseyAA Public
Fri, Sep 269.73A Division I PublicDade County90.4%29 - 722ArmucheeA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 269.46AA PublicCarver (Columbus)100.0%48 - 048HardawayAA Public
Fri, Sep 269.17A Division IIAtkinson County95.6%41 - 1427Southwest Georgia STEMA Division II
Fri, Sep 267.98AAA PublicChestatee98.5%40 - 040Johnson (Gainesville)AAA Public
Fri, Sep 266.72GIAA AA-ARobert Toombs Academy91.4%35 - 1520St. Andrew's SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
Fri, Sep 265.85AA PublicSalem93.1%37 - 1423Stone MountainAAA Public
Fri, Sep 264.80GIAA AA-AGatewood School89.5%27 - 324Augusta PrepGIAA AA-A
Fri, Sep 263.37A Division IIGeorgia Military Prep87.9%34 - 1420Twiggs CountyA Division II
Fri, Sep 26-0.80GIAA AAAA-AAAPiedmont Academy89.1%29 - 1019Heritage (Newnan)GIAA AA-A
Fri, Sep 26-1.00GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor99.7%39 - 039Baconton CharterA Division II
Thu, Sep 25-2.19Smaller PrivateWalker56.2%21 - 192B.E.S.T. AcademyA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 26-2.54AA PublicBurke County100.0%49 - 049Glenn HillsAA Public
Fri, Sep 26-5.86A Division IICalhoun County73.1%21 - 129Pataula CharterA Division II
Fri, Sep 26-5.87A Division I PublicJasper County99.9%44 - 044Utopian AcademyA Division I Public
Fri, Sep 26-7.20A Division IICrawford County98.7%34 - 034Central (Talbotton)A Division II
Fri, Sep 26-10.12AA PublicSumter County100.0%55 - 055JordanAA Public
Fri, Sep 26-17.56GAPPS AACreekside Christian95.4%36 - 1026Skipstone AcademyGAPPS AA

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Loren Maxwell

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