The Jolt: The good news for Stacey Abrams in her bad poll result
Stacey Abrams is trailing Gov. Brian Kemp by 10-points in the latest University of Georgia poll released this morning. But there was reason for hope for the Democrat in the findings, too.
Voters gave positive reviews to the four issues that shape Abrams’ campaign.
- Most respondents — 61% — oppose the 2019 Georgia law, signed by Kemp, that restricts most abortions as soon as a doctor can detect a fetal heartbeat, which is as early as six weeks.
- About the same proportion of voters opposes the Kemp-backed law that allows gun owners to carry concealed weapons without a permit.
- Nearly 60% of voters also support using the state’s budget surplus of more than $6.5 billion to increase spending. Abrams’ platform includes “generational” investments to hike teacher pay and expand Medicaid. About 31% say they’d prefer the extra funds be used to cut taxes, which Kemp has promised.
- And roughly 60% of the poll’s respondents also endorse legalizing casino gambling, an idea opposed by Kemp but backed by Abrams to finance an expansion of college scholarship programs. (Voters were split on the idea of legalizing sports betting, another issue she backs.)
Why are most voters with Abrams on the issues, but with Kemp in the end, according to this and other polls? That’s a riddle the Abrams team is working to solve before early voting begins Monday. They believe that a change to traditional turnout models, driven by these issues, is their path to victory. The margin of error in the poll was 3.1 percentage points.
***
LISTEN UP. Today’s special edition of the Politically Georgia podcast features a newsy interview with Atlanta mayor Andre Dickens, a live studio audience, and a midweek dive into our mailbag.
Thanks to all the listeners who joined us for the taping last night at the famous Manuel’s Tavern. Anyone who couldn’t make it can listen and subscribe now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.
And keep an ear open for special episodes this week as we roll out more on the latest poll results and the all-important debates coming up in Savannah and Atlanta.
***
STATE OF THE CITY. We covered a lot of ground in our conversation with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens Tuesday night. Among the highlights:
Asked about Herschel Walker, Dickens said it is “unconscionable” that Walker and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock are in a neck-and-neck race.
“(Herschel Walker) hasn’t proven himself in business, hasn’t proven himself in civics, hasn’t proven himself in community, and of course, hasn’t proven himself, politically,” the mayor said. “And if the ads are true, that he really was a domestic violence basket case, we can’t reward that in a society that’s trying to promote peace, equality, opportunity and to have that be the tagline for Georgia.”
Dickens said the choice of the city to host the 2024 Democratic National Convention is now down to Atlanta and Chicago. And he said former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, now a senior White House advisor, has been an important part of the pitch to President Joe Biden, who will make the final call.
On a possible Buckhead City, Dickens described his work to address GOP leaders’ concerns about Atlanta, starting with meeting with Republicans personally, sometimes twice in a day, at the Capitol and at City Hall.
“I’ve been over there enough that I can say I know where the governor’s office is, where the lieutenant governor’s office is, where the Speaker’s office is. I know their admins and I sit out there like everybody else in the waiting room and humbly ask for an opportunity to speak.”
He said public opinion has reversed because of the work the city has done. “What went from it was about 65% of people in Buckhead who said they would vote to have a new city, now that’s turned completely the other way. We’re in the high 60′s with people that want to stay.”
On Wellstar’s decision to close Atlanta Medical Center without warning to the city, he said Wellstar had a “substantial responsibility to humanity” to give the community more notice. He’s now working with government leaders and the city’s remaining hospitals to fill the void in health care coverage the closure will create.
***
TOMMY TIME. U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock frequently talks about his work across the aisle with Republicans. One of his go-to examples: his partnership with Sen. Tommy Tuberville to help peanut farmers.
Tuberville even got a shoutout as the Alabama senator in Warnock’s latest ad, which features the Georgian underneath a peanut sheller.
So, what does Warnock think about Tuberville’s remarks comparing descendants of enslaved people to criminals, which leading civil rights groups have condemned as racist.
Speaking on the liberal “Pod Save America,” Warnock called the remarks “deeply disappointing” and pressed the Alabama Republican to apologize.
“I think it’s one more example of the ways in which we are in the moment where there are those in office who are trying to appeal to the worst in us for short-term political gain,” he said.
“Not only is his rhetoric inappropriate, quite frankly it’s dangerous,” Warnock said. “And he really should apologize and make amends for that kind of rhetoric.”
***
1st DISTRICT FIGHT. Wade Herring, the Democrat challenging incumbent U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter in Georgia’s 1st Congressional District, has released a new ad highlighting Carter’s connections to the pharmaceutical industry.
In the spot titled, “Big Pharma’s Favorite Son,” former pharmacist Carter is described a lobbyist for the companies, which have also donated to his campaigns over the years. The ad includes Carter’s vote against the Inflation Reduction Act, which allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices to save money for both seniors and the federal government.
“Buddy Carter is for Big Pharma, not us,” the narrator says.
Herring is running an unusually robust campaign in the heavily Republican district on the Southeast Georgia coast. He’s raised about $862,000 for this race, and the Savannah Morning News flagged a recent TikTok video calling Herring, “The chillest dude in America.” It’s gotten more than a million views so far.
***
ON THE TRAIL:
- Gov. Brian Kemp’s bus tour is swinging through south Georgia today. He will start at the Nashville Community Center and then make stops at Roberts Milling Company in Pearson, Ben Hill Senior Citizens Center in Fitzgerald, and Carroll’s Sausage & Country Store in Ashburn.
- Stacey Abrams’ One Georgia leadership committee holds a “Black Men’s Early Voting Rally” in Atlanta.
***
1-2 PUNCH. Politico is up with an article detailing the unusual dynamic of Gov. Brian Kemp running for reelection after refusing to flip the 2020 election results for former president Donald Trump, while state Sen. Burt Jones runs for lieutenant governor after serving as a fake Trump elector.
“We’re running as a ticket whether we like it or not,” Jones told a small crowd in Thomson, Georgia, at a recent campaign meet-and-greet, Politico wrote.
***
SWOOSH. People for the American Way, a progressive political committee, is running radio ads across Georgia supporting Democrats Stacey Abrams and Raphael Warnock.
One 60-second spot, titled “Call the Shots,” focuses on Black male voters, a usually solid bloc for Democrats who are lagging in their support for Abrams, in particular, so far this cycle.
“I know she’s not your favorite, but Brian Kemp?” one man says to another in the ad, as the two play basketball. “You gotta watch what he does, not just what he says.”
A second man says of Herschel Walker, “That brother’s not right.”
The spots will run through Election Day on stations in Albany, Columbus, Macon, Augusta and Savannah. People for the American Way is also sponsoring other voter outreach in Georgia, including on-the-ground organization and social media outreach.
***
VETERANS’ HEALTH. Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough will join U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff for an inspection of the Atlanta VA Medical Center this afternoon.
They will also give remarks on the PACT Act, a new law to provide additional health benefits to veterans exposed to burn pits and other toxic chemicals during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
***
BIDEN AT BENNING. We are learning more about first lady Jill Biden’s trip to the Columbus area on Thursday and Friday.
She will visit service members and military families at Fort Benning and the Maneuver Center of Excellence. She will also join families for dinner and deliver remarks at the National Infantry Museum on Thursday evening.
On Friday, she will visit with service members in basic training at Fort Benning and host a roundtable with military families.
All of this falls under the White House’s Joining Forces initiative to support service members, veterans, families and caregivers.
***
VOTERS’ GUIDE. With early voting starting Monday, it’s time to get up to speed on the candidates and issues.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution partnered with the Atlanta Civic Circle to give you a side-by-side look at candidates from the top of the ticket all the way to races for state House, state Senate, and metro county commission races.
The Voters’ Guide is now available and will be updated as events warrant up to Election Day.
***
AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.
About the Authors
Patricia Murphy is the AJC's senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution's chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
Tia Mitchell is the AJC’s Washington Bureau Chief and a co-host of the "Politically Georgia" podcast. She writes about Georgia’s congressional delegation, campaigns, elections and the impact that decisions made in D.C. have on residents of the Peach State.
