A titanic matchup for Georgia governor goes down to the wire

LOCUST GROVE — It is one of the most expensive, unpredictable and consequential races in Georgia history.

And with one day left before Election Day, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson are locked in a razor-tight showdown that could shift the balance of power in Georgia.

Jackson, a billionaire political newcomer who upended the GOP establishment, has dipped into his staggering fortune to fund his campaign and cast himself as both President Donald Trump’s “favorite governor” and the heir to Gov. Brian Kemp’s legacy.

Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor seeking to become the nation’s first Black woman elected governor, has tried to harness Democratic enthusiasm and voter frustration with Trump to break the decades-long GOP grip on the Governor’s Mansion.

Their clash has become a test of competing political forces: Jackson’s extraordinary wealth and outsider appeal, rooted in his rise from foster care to billionaire, against Bottoms’ energized Democratic base and a national climate that has soured on Trump.

Yet as the race enters its final hours, neither candidate has pulled away.

A Bottoms victory would make her the first Democrat elected governor of Georgia since Roy Barnes won in 1998 and the first Black woman ever elected to lead a U.S. state, opening the door to long-neglected Democratic priorities.

A Jackson victory would extend Republican control of the state’s highest office while ushering in an ambitious outsider determined to put his own stamp on state government.

A clash of records and priorities

The two rivals disagree on just about every major policy issue facing Georgia.

Bottoms wants to fully expand Medicaid, making hundreds of thousands more people eligible for the government-funded health insurance program. Jackson proposes an “intelligent Medicaid expansion” that ties eligibility to work requirements.

Bottoms wants to expand abortion rights. Jackson backs Georgia’s 2019 anti-abortion law that bans the procedure as early as six weeks.

Jackson has promised to cut the state income tax in half during his first term. Bottoms favors more targeted tax relief, including reducing taxes on groceries and eliminating the state income tax for teachers.

Bottoms wants to pause new data center projects. Jackson favors tighter regulations and is himself an investor in a massive data center project in Texas.

But perhaps the most telling contrast is a personal one.

Bottoms, 56, is the daughter of soul singer Major Lance, whose struggles with drugs shaped her views on the criminal justice system. A former judge and Atlanta City Council member, she became mayor in 2018 and later worked as a senior adviser to President Joe Biden.

Jackson, 72, endured a turbulent childhood in Georgia’s foster care system before building a sprawling healthcare empire that made him so wealthy the state’s financial disclosure form didn’t have enough space to capture the scale of his net worth. He had never sought elected office before launching his surprise campaign in February.

On the campaign trail, Bottoms portrays herself as a battle-tested leader who steered Atlanta through the coronavirus pandemic, protests for racial justice and other crises.

Jackson has made that record the centerpiece of his attacks, framing her as a failed mayor who abandoned a city beset by crime and dysfunction when she decided not to seek a second term.

And he’s made a pointed pledge of his own: If he fails to deliver on key campaign promises, he won’t seek reelection.

“I will guarantee you, we’ll have the lowest cost state plan in the country or I won’t run again,” he said this week in Cartersville. “I’m that confident.”

A test of money and momentum

Jackson’s campaign has been unlike anything Georgia has seen.

He spent a fortune to defeat Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in a bitter Republican runoff, then kept opening his bank account to campaign against Bottoms. His campaign has blanketed television screens and mailboxes with advertisements while building an extensive turnout operation.

Yet even spending more than $200 million of his own money has failed to give him a clear edge. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll in October had the two deadlocked, echoing other recent surveys showing a tossup race.

Bottoms, meanwhile, has benefited from a late infusion of national money that has helped her compete. She also struck a close political partnership with U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, whose well-financed reelection operation is helping Democrats across the ballot.

In the closing days of the race, former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris joined the push to energize Black voters and younger Georgians, whose turnout could prove decisive.

Jackson, meanwhile, is navigating a different balancing act. He’s struggled over how to maintain Trump’s MAGA loyalists while tying himself to Kemp, whose independent conservative brand has made him one of the state’s most popular politicians.

A fight over Georgia’s future

Kemp has become a mainstay for Jackson on the trail, often saying the final push reminds him of his 2018 victory over Stacey Abrams in a tough national climate for Republicans.

“Everywhere I’m going, I’m telling people this is just like 2018 all over again,” Kemp said at a recent stop in Lawrenceville. “This is a fight for the soul of the state. And we’re in a really tough battle.”

The early vote has only upped the tension. Georgia shattered its midterm record for in-person early voting, with Democrats encouraged by strong participation in left-leaning areas and Republicans sounding alarms about sluggish turnout in red parts of the state.

Now Republicans are counting on a strong Election Day showing to make up ground, and Jackson is planning a five-stop fly-around Monday in a final push to rally GOP voters across the state.

Bottoms senses a historic moment. After nearly a quarter-century of Republican rule, she tells voters they have a chance to take the state in a new direction while breaking barriers that have stood for generations.