Georgia early voting nears 2 million. Here’s what the numbers tell us.
About 2 million Georgians have already voted, offering the clearest picture yet of the electorate taking shape ahead of next week’s midterm election.
The numbers offer encouraging signs for Democrats, with higher turnout in parts of left-leaning metro Atlanta compared with this stage in the 2022 election and an influx of diverse voters who sat out the last midterm.
But Republicans have bright spots of their own, particularly in some of the north Atlanta exurbs, even as GOP candidates scramble to reverse sluggish turnout in rural Georgia ahead of the Nov. 3 vote.
By midday Tuesday, turnout was about 7% ahead of the same stage of the 2022 midterms, according to the GeorgiaVotes tracking website.
The numbers offer some early clues about what parts of the state are mobilizing faster during the three-week early voting period, which ends Friday.
But we won’t know until Nov. 3 whether that translates into an Election Day advantage for either party.
Here’s what the numbers tell us:
The geographic divide. Turnout remains further ahead of 2022 in counties former Vice President Kamala Harris carried than in those President Donald Trump won in 2024. Left-leaning metro Atlanta suburbs have helped fuel the increase, along with Democratic-heavy population centers such as Augusta’s Richmond County and Savannah’s Chatham County. The jump is sharpest in Athens-Clarke County, a Democratic stronghold where participation is running roughly one-third ahead of the same point in 2022.
Trump country. Turnout is climbing in the fast-growing GOP strongholds of Cherokee and Jackson counties, which are key to the party’s statewide strategy. In Whitfield County, where Trump rallied supporters earlier this month, turnout has jumped nearly 20% compared with the 2022 vote. It’s increased more modestly in Houston County, where Trump held his latest rally Saturday.
A different electorate is emerging. At least 360,000 of the people who voted early this year did not cast a ballot in the 2022 midterm. That’s nearly one in five voters so far, and they’re a more diverse group than those who participated four years ago. Consider this: White Georgians make up about 53% of all early voters. But only about 41% of those who skipped the last midterm are white, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis.
Not all of them are new voters. So who are the Georgians who skipped the last midterm? The AJC’s analysis showed that about 43% registered after the last midterm election. Another 42% were already registered in 2022 but didn’t vote. The remaining 15% were too young to cast a ballot four years ago.
Hispanic voters stand out. Roughly 64,000 Hispanic voters have cast early ballots, accounting for just 3% of the total. But nearly half those voters skipped the 2022 election, reflecting a notable spike of newcomers. Asian voters also make up a disproportionately large share of those who didn’t vote four years ago.
Younger voters are starting to show up. More than 110,000 early voters under 30 didn’t cast a ballot in 2022, according to GeorgiaVotes. That’s nearly two-thirds of all younger early voters, though some weren’t old enough to cast ballots four years ago. Still, older Georgians dominate the early electorate. Voters 50 and older account for nearly three-quarters of all ballots cast so far, compared with just 9% from those under 30.
Mail voting is plunging. Even as overall turnout rises, the number of Georgians casting ballots by mail has dropped sharply. As of Tuesday morning, roughly 91,000 mail ballots had been accepted, compared with more than 1.9 million ballots cast in person. An AJC analysis found that mail voting was down more than 50% from the same point in 2022. The drop reflects a return to pre-pandemic voting habits, though it also comes amid Trump’s repeated attacks on mail-in ballots.
Both parties are racing to encourage their supporters to bank as many votes as possible in the final stretch.
Republican Rick Jackson has sounded the alarm about his concerns about lagging participation in rural GOP territory, where he needs to capture huge margins to defeat Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in the race for governor.
Democrats, meanwhile, are bringing in former President Barack Obama on Wednesday and former Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday and Friday to boost turnout.
There are limits to what these numbers can tell us.
For starters, they tell us who has voted, not how they voted. Georgia doesn’t register voters by party, and split-ticket voting is expected to be decisive in tight statewide contests. Just because someone lives in a Democratic or Republican stronghold doesn’t mean they’ll support that party’s candidates.
Republicans also tend to rely more heavily on Election Day turnout. And nearly 244,000 Georgians who voted on Election Day in 2022 have already cast ballots this year, a reminder that some of these figures reflect a shift in voting habits, not a political realignment.
So remember: The numbers offer a revealing look at which parts of Georgia are turning out in force. But they’re no crystal ball for what happens on Election Day.