How Democrats and Republicans are strategically approaching special elections

Special elections are unpredictable. They are usually held outside of marquee political contest dates and attract few voters.

Since late August, there have been six special elections for seats in the Georgia General Assembly, with the parties taking different approaches in their attempts to turn out their loyal voters to win. The GOP has mostly encouraged any interested candidates to run, while Democrats have largely consolidated around a consensus choice.

Republicans say their strategy has allowed the best candidate to rise to the top without putting a thumb on the scale. Democrats say they’ve been able to provide support that is only possible with no other competitors.

Josh McKoon, the chair of the Georgia Republican Party, said a competitive Republican process leads to high quality candidates who are then more competitive in general elections.

“You wind up getting candidates who can stand up on their own, who don’t need the party apparatus to prop them up,” he said.

The Democratic strategy has meant that in three out of six legislative races, the party’s candidate has made it to the runoff election as one of the top two candidates. Most recently, LeMario Brown, the Democratic candidate in a heavily Republican Middle Georgia state Senate district, came in first with 37% of the vote Tuesday.

“We have the state investment that would not happen if there were multiple Democrats running,” said Nicholas Sabas, executive director of the Georgia Senate Democratic Caucus.

Brown faces steep odds in the February runoff. In the elections for Senate District 21 and House District 23, both suburban districts in north Atlanta that favor Republicans, the Democratic candidate has gone on to lose in the districts that were heavily favored toward Republicans.

Sabas said competing for the position is a type of victory in itself.

“That seat will now be open for another three-and-a-half weeks, right in the heart of the session,” he said.

Republicans have also attempted similar efforts to lesser success. In both House District 106 and Senate District 35, both of which are heavily Democratic-leaning districts, only one Republican entered the contest. Neither made it to a runoff.

McKoon also said the Republican process is more accessible and egalitarian while “Democrats have always had more of a top-down structure where the party bosses sort of order people around.”

But Sabas said the idea that party leaders are picking a preferred candidate isn’t correct.

Before consolidating behind Brown in Tuesday’s race, Democrats spoke with prospective candidates, county party chairs and local elected officials, he said.

“Everybody decided and understood that our best path forward is one candidate,” he said. “People are willing to say, ‘This may not be my moment; this may be this person’s moment,’ and that is when a party succeeds.”

While the state Democratic Party does not gatekeep any candidates, they can focus.

“It’s always up to Georgia Democratic voters to decide which candidate becomes our nominee,” said Charlie Bailey, chair of the state Democrats. “We work on candidate recruitment with our partners statewide to ensure voters have a Democratic choice everywhere and that Republicans don’t go unchallenged.”

There may be a demographic factor at play as well. Brian Robinson, a Republican strategist, said Democrats — the minority party in the state — can more easily settle on a single candidate in districts they cannot win.

“Democrats are going to have a much easier time of clearing the field for one candidate because the prize isn’t that great,” he said, “You’re more than likely going to be running to lose, so it’s easier to tell politically eager candidates to back off.”

In a Republican district where the winner could likely hold the seat for several terms, Robinson said it’s hard to tell people not to run.

“It just creates a lot of hard feelings in these seats,” he said.

Beyond individual elections, Sabas said the races are part of a larger effort.