A delicate dance for Gov. Nathan Deal’s election bid

It crystallized a Deal strategy, darting toward the right for the May 20 primary with the testing proposal, while keeping an eye on the center for the November race with the offer of treatment. It’s a tack that Deal is increasingly embracing as he prepares to face two distinct electorates.

The first is a base of GOP voters he must mobilize to turn out for the earliest primary in state history. The second is the general election crowd that will vote in November, a broader cross section of voters where rising numbers of minorities and newcomers give Democrats hope for an upset.

As the first vote nears, Deal’s conservative credentials are on the line. Rather than a high-profile insurgency he feared, though, he faces two Republicans who have waged long-shot, if confident, campaigns.

But the second contest is never far from his mind — a potential November matchup with Democrat Jason Carter, whose pedigree as the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter gives him access to a donor network that other candidates can only dream about.

A GOP threat

State Superintendent John Barge was long a thorn in Deal’s side when he announced his candidacy in August.

The two have tussled over graduation rates, the inner workings of the Education Department and, most notably, a 2012 ballot measure to give the state new powers to create charter schools, which Deal supported and Barge opposed.

Barge’s campaign centers on vows to increase funding to public education and provide more tax credits for existing businesses, though he hasn’t outlined exactly how he will do that beyond a vow not to raise taxes.

He also pledges to restore "moral integrity" to the office, a reference to the ethics questions that have plagued Deal's campaign. He and other Deal opponents seized on the April jury verdict that found the head of a state watchdog agency was forced out for too vigorously investigating Deal's run for governor in 2010.

“I’ve grown increasingly concerned about the state’s policy,” he said. “And I’ve found there’s a general lack of leadership in all areas.”

Barge’s campaign, though, has struggled to gain traction. Carter’s splashy entrance in the race, and his focus on education, targets the swing voters Barge hoped to attract. A lack of specifics on many issues — Barge has pledged to convene a council of experts to hash out many key questions — has left holes in his platform.

Paltry fundraising is complicating Barge's campaign. He had only $15,000 by March's end, forcing him to rely on unconventional marketing methods. He recently rented out a popular third-party Twitter account to dispatch his message on social media. Deal, by contrast, had almost $4 million in the bank.

Former Dalton Mayor David Pennington, who stepped down from office in March, has a more natural ideological base. He’s attacked Deal from the right, hoping to attract enough fervent conservatives to earn a spot in a runoff in a contest he expects to have muted turnout.

He, too, has hammered the governor about ethics problems and often reminds voters that Deal, a former congressman who switched parties in 1995, was once a Democrat. And while he also lags behind in fundraising, the roughly $200,000 Pennington had in his account in March helped him secure airtime for TV ads.

Pennington, who calls himself the “ethical conservative,” has vowed to eliminate the state income tax and slash what he views as wasteful spending. He also pledges more local control of school districts by decentralizing more state functions.

Yet his campaign has also faced organizational and message issues. He’s struggled to attract widespread donors from outside his base in northwest Georgia. And an event last month outside of Deal’s statehouse office was hijacked by the governor’s attorney and quickly devolved.

At small tea party gatherings, though, Pennington often receives raucous applause. At one event this spring, he was hailed by a supporter as the best political candidate to ever run for office — including George Washington. Pennington said Deal’s nod to the middle is a sign of weakness.

“When you look at how Georgia has been governed since Republicans took over, I’m not real sure who this leadership represents,” Pennington said. “We can do better with true conservative leadership.”

Simultaneous efforts

The governor’s two-track strategy led to the kind of curious scene that unfolded at the statehouse last week.

At one ceremony, he signed legislation while flanked by two children of Martin Luther King Jr. to put the slain leader’s statue on the statehouse grounds. In a closed event soon after, he signed a bill opposed by civil rights activists that effectively blocks Georgia from undertaking an expansion of Medicaid under the federal health care overhaul.

Some analysts say they didn’t expect Deal to take strident views on such high-profile issues as health care policy, where Georgia has staked out a consistently anti-Obamacare approach. Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, suspects it’s a politically motivated attempt to shore up his base.

“It’s been surprising to me because it doesn’t seem that his threat in the primary is all that great,” Abramowitz said. “He wants to make sure that Republicans and conservatives have his back and won’t throw him under the bus when May 20 comes around.”

Deal has resisted some of the publicity prizes that go along with those base-pleasing bills. While he traveled to Ellijay last month to sign into law a broad expansion of gun rights, his office didn’t stage ceremonies — or even dispatch separate press releases — for the Obamacare restrictions or a new requirement for drug tests for some welfare recipients.

Democrats say it’s nothing more than a transparent political ploy.

“We are still trying to figure out who the real Deal is,” Carter said. “He’s been changing on so many issues, that’s been difficult to find.”

‘Compassionate conservatism’

Deal’s seemingly sudden push for drug testing and treatment for those seeking jobless benefits has quietly been in the works for weeks.

Labor Commissioner Mark Butler said it’s only in the earliest stages and must be approved by federal regulators. Still, he called it an embrace of “compassionate conservatism” that echoes the governor’s three-year push for a criminal justice overhaul that keeps more low-level offenders out of prison.

“We are trying to find a way to protect the taxpayers and solve the underlying problem,” Butler said.

In the end, though, the governor’s flirtations with the center may not amount to much. Abramowitz, the political scientist, said only about 10 percent of the vote is truly up for grabs, and many of those voters are already leaning toward a preferred candidate.

“If you’re a Republican and you make sure your base shows up, you can cement a win,” he said. “In order for the Democrats to win this race, the Republicans are going to have to stumble.”