Tax proposal could affect incumbents

Metro Atlanta’s vote on a $6.14 billion list of regional transportation projects is not until next year, but its impact is being felt now by elected officials being challenged for supporting the plan.

That support, specifically for the mass transit portion that accounts for more than half the project list, already has played a key role in unseating one of the officials of the 21-member roundtable that drafted the final project list.

Fayetteville Mayor Ken Steele, a three-term incumbent, saw his re-election hopes dashed by newcomer Greg Clifton in November. Clifton campaigned heavily on a “change” platform, and continually noted his opposition to the regional transportation tax.

Voters in 10 metro Atlanta counties will decide next year on the transportation project list along with a 1 percent sales tax to fund it. Throughout the roundtable’s months of work on the project list, opponents in the affected counties have complained that the tax was too costly and would not help relieve traffic congestion.

“It will be my No. 1 issue,” said Bill Byrne, a former Cobb County Commission chairman and one of three known challengers for the chairman’s seat currently held by Tim Lee.

Lee has been one of the leading advocates of the transportation plan, and has pushed for mass transit throughout the region and in his county. Byrne has long been vehemently opposed to the regional tax partly because the plan does not include an opt-out clause for counties not wanting to participate. In a process set up by state law, regions across Georgia are each working toward a transportation referendum, which needs a majority of a region’s voters to pass.

The Cobb chairman’s race is expected to be one of the most contentious of the upcoming election cycle.

“[The project list] may not have been his idea, but it was his vote, and he will pay” for it, Byrne said. “I’m going to hammer him with it and let the voters decide.”

But for Lee, the transportation tax will be a topic of the campaign, not a noose around his neck, he said. Local issues, including a county sales tax extension and millage rate increase approved earlier this year, will play more heavily into the race, he said.

In Fayette County, with Steele out of the mayor’s seat in Fayetteville, the attention in next year’s elections turns to commission chairman and roundtable member Herb Frady. He’s a Republican who might face opposition within his own party.

“Frady voted on the project list, and Fayette doesn’t do too bad for the first 10 years, but we’re concerned about what we would get tied to beyond that,” said Bob Ross, an executive board member of the Fayette County GOP.

Last year, Fayette voters ousted the former commission chairman, Jack Smith, partly over his support for transit.

“[Frady] will probably get targeted this coming year as well,” Ross said. “We like to clarify the issues and let the ballot box decide. So far, it has been a clear message.”

In addition to Cobb and Fayette, County Commission leaders who served on the roundtable are up for election next year in Clayton, Gwinnett, Henry and Rockdale counties. If the transportation tax vote takes place July 31, it would be on the same Primary Election Day as many of the local races — an opportunity that Byrne in Cobb County says allows voters to “kill two birds with one vote.”

For roundtable members weighing their re-election chances, the November election did offer some hope. Kennesaw Mayor Mark Mathews, a member of the roundtable’s five-person executive committee, easily won re-election in his mayoral bid. And roundtable leader Bucky Johnson, who fostered the regional list from conception to approval, was re-elected as mayor of Norcross. Lake City’s and Decatur’s mayors also were re-elected.

Based on those municipal election results, it appears the regional transportation tax will not have a significant impact on the local elections for roundtable members next year, said David Shock, associate political science professor at Kennesaw State University.

And because the transportation tax is an independent vote, people can vote for a candidate’s re-election and against the tax, he said.

“The question will be whether the elected officials in counties that are perceived not to benefit as much in the regional projects will be punished,” Shock said.

Ultimately, much of the opposition for roundtable members will depend on location, particularly in Cobb County and North Georgia, where mass transit opposition is high, said Debbie Dooley, national coordinator of the Tea Party Patriots. She is opposed to the regional tax.

“I think you will see the tea party activists targeting some of their incumbent elected officials that are advocating for the [transportation tax],” she said. “Their re-election could be in jeopardy because of it.”

But for some officials, like Clayton County Commission Chairman Eldrin Bell, supporting the transportation plan could be a boon for their campaigns because of the projects the tax would deliver their counties. If voters approve the tax, Clayton would receive funds to restart its local bus service that was shuttered last year to save money.

“Supporting the [transportation tax was a major plus for Bell, and that is a major plus for Clayton,” said Rodney Blackmon, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union’s Local 732, whose members include bus drivers and workers on transit systems throughout the area. “He worked hard in getting that through, and his leadership for Clayton is a great asset.”

Roundtable re-elections

Commission leaders from these counties sat on the regional transportation roundtable and are up for re-election next year:

● Clayton

● Cobb

● Fayette