Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich enjoys a home-field advantage in the race for the Georgia presidential primary, but he trails Mitt Romney in head-to-head matchups with President Barack Obama, a new poll shows.
Gingrich, a former Georgia congressman, leads Romney 43 percent to 21 percent among Georgia Republicans, according to the poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Georgia Newspaper Partnership. No other candidate drew double-digit support.
The poll shows Republican voters continue to express concern over the state of the economy as the March 6 presidential primary draws closer. Nearly half of all respondents said jobs and the economy will be the key issues in choosing a candidate.
Gingrich has become the campaign’s front-runner nationally, and the Georgia results match polls in early-voting states such as Iowa and South Carolina where Gingrich also leads.
In addition to polling Republicans, Mason-Dixon also posed a pair of questions to a broader sample of general election voters. The results show that Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is the stronger general election candidate.
Both Romney and Gingrich are favored in matchups with Obama. But Romney’s lead is bigger. In a Gingrich-Obama matchup, Gingrich is favored 50 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent undecided. In a Romney-Obama matchup, Romney gets 55 percent support to Obama’s 38 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
The difference? Women and independents, said Mason-Dixon managing partner Brad Coker.
“The ultimate group that will make or break any group in the general election are politically independent, not really strongly affiliated suburban women,” Coker said. “Romney is much more attractive to those voters now than Gingrich is.”
That dynamic plays out, too, in the race for the state’s primary. While Gingrich enjoys a healthy lead — not a surprise, given his ties here, Coker said — his support is softer among women. Twenty-nine percent of Republican women support Gingrich, compared with 52 percent of male GOP voters, the poll found.
University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, a veteran analyst of Georgia politics, said the thrice-married Gingrich’s trouble with female voters is expected.
“Not too surprising, the way he goes through wives,” Bullock said.
But Marlene Villasenor, 48, of Lawrenceville, is one of those suburban women backing Gingrich — at least now that her first choice, Herman Cain, has suspended his campaign.
“Gingrich’s experience working with Congress would be an asset,” Villasenor said. “I like that when he was speaker he was able to work with [President Bill] Clinton to balance the budget and reform welfare. It showed he could work with the opposing side.”
Romney, who finished third in the state’s 2008 presidential primary, is trailing among evangelical voters and tea party supporters, who are breaking in larger numbers for Gingrich.
Gingrich said the poll results show voters are listening.
“Georgians know my record of fighting for conservative reform and know there will be no need for on-the-job training if I am privileged enough to be the next president,” Gingrich said in an email to the AJC. “I appreciate their dedication to be with me as we work to defeat Barack Obama and rebuild the America we love.”
Romney supporters, meanwhile, are undeterred and see positive signs in the poll. Eric Tanenblatt, a managing director at McKenna Long law firm and top Romney ally in Georgia, said the poll plays to Romney’s strengths.
“The number one issue that shows up are jobs and the economy,” said Tanenblatt, who was Gov. Sonny Perdue’s first chief of staff. “Mitt Romney spent 25 years in the private sector. He understands how the economy works. The more voters get to know Mitt Romney the more they’re going to realize, with jobs and the economy being the No. 1 issue, he’s the candidate for the time.”
For many evangelicals, Gingrich’s contrition after two failed marriages and extra-marital affairs show he has changed. The Rev. Michael Youssef of the Church of the Apostles in Atlanta said all people ares sinners.
“I’d rather have somebody who knows how to confess and repent from sin than somebody who would never acknowledge sin, or repent from sin,” said Youssef, who supports Gingrich.
Youssef said many were upset with Gingrich, but his public acknowledgment of his failings brought many back to the fold.
Besides, he said, “we’re not electing a pastor-in-chief. We’re electing a commander-in-chief. If Newt was applying for a job as a pastor, that would be a different story.”
William Glidewell of Lincolnton is among those supporting Gingrich.
“He’s had lots of experience around Washington, and if you don’t know your way around Washington, you’ll mess up. I’m not totally happy with lots of our people up there, but he’s got lots of experience in that area,” said Glidewell, 79.
Though he’s retired after 30 years in the Navy and 15 with the U.S. Postal Service, Glidewell said the economy and jobs and their impact on his grandchildren and great-grandchildren is the most important factor in his choice of a president.
Billie White, 84, of Comer, said he supports Gingrich because of the former House speaker’s experience but is open to changing his mind.
And like Glidewell, White said he won’t be casting his vote for Obama.
“I definitely don’t care for Obama because I think he’s been primed from grade school to do what he’s doing,” White said. “I just don’t trust him, as a Christian. I don’t think he’s on the up-and-up.”
He said he doesn’t like the auto or bank bailouts, and he’s most worried about the rising national debt.
“I can’t go along with what they’re doing in Washington,” he said. “You can’t spend more than you’ve got. You can’t spend your way out of debt.”
But Clay Stafford, 46, of Palmetto, said Romney deserves his vote and that Gingrich does not.
“There are some interesting gentlemanly qualities that Mitt Romney has as far as how he carries himself,” Stafford said. “His business acumen is intriguing to me.”
Stafford said Romney’s work in steadying the Salt Lake City Olympics in 2002 impressed him as does his background in business development. Gingrich, on the other hand, “is somebody that obviously is an opportunist.”
“I’m not going to vote for him,” Stafford said of Gingrich. “He is obviously a very intelligent person. But if you at his record, you have to wonder if he truly has the best of intentions in mind or if he’s just extending his political career.”
Susan McCord of The Augusta Chronicle, Blake Aued of The Banner-Herald in Athens and Ashley Fielding of The Times of Gainesville contributed to this report.
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About the Georgia Newspaper Partnership
The Georgia Newspaper Partnership consists of the following papers: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Athens Banner-Herald, The Augusta Chronicle, The Chattanooga Times Free Press, The Columbus Ledger Enquirer, The Dalton Daily Citizen, The Gainesville Times, The Georgia Times-Union (Brunswick), The Macon Telegraph, The Rome News -Tribune, The Savannah Morning News, The Statesboro Herald and The Valdosta Daily Times.
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