Bracket Watch: Miami (Ohio) joins the bubble but still has a lot going for it -- for now

This was the scenario fans have been anticipating — and some have been dreading — for a while: Miami (Ohio) goes 31-0 in the regular season, becomes one of the game's most remarkable stories, then loses in the Mid-American Conference Tournament.

The RedHawks are at the mercy of the selection committee now after they not only lost in their conference tournament, but fell in the quarterfinals to a UMass team that was outside the top 200 in the NET rankings. Miami's weak schedule and lack of major wins are a problem, but going 31-1 against even the RedHawks' schedule is not easy, as evidenced by their solid position in Wins Above Bubble — a metric that measures how many more or fewer wins a team has against its schedule compared to what would be expected from a bubble team.

Also to Miami's benefit is the recent performance of other bubble teams. Indiana lost to Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday. Auburn blew a double-digit lead against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament on Thursday. If Miami is ahead of both those teams, that means the RedHawks are probably in the field as of now.

Miami still needs to worry about bid thieves — and perhaps bubble teams like San Diego State, New Mexico and Seton Hall that are still alive in their conference tournaments. But for now, the RedHawks' loss should probably concern other bubble teams more than it worries Miami.

Bubble watch

There are no more bid thieves in the Big 12 Tournament. All eight quarterfinalists were likely to make the NCAAs anyway.

The experts say

Last four in according to ...

ESPN: Missouri, Virginia Commonwealth, Texas, SMU

Sports Illustrated: Miami (Ohio), VCU, Auburn, SMU

First four out according to ...

ESPN: Auburn, Indiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma.

Sports Illustrated: Texas, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma.

Automatic bids

Here's who has claimed an automatic bid to this year's men's NCAA Tournament: Long Island University (NEC), Tennessee State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), High Point (Big South), Queens (ASUN), North Dakota State (Summit), Troy (Sun Belt), Furman (SoCon), Wright State (Horizon), Hofstra (CAA), Siena (MAAC), Gonzaga (WCC), McNeese (Southland), Lehigh (Patriot), Idaho (Big Sky).