Job growth in Georgia will slow to about 76,000 new positions in 2016, slipping for the second straight year, according to the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University.
About 18 percent of the new jobs will be “premium,” good-paying positions – according to the prediction, part of a report released Wednesday at the center’s quarterly conference.
Last year, Georgia payrolls grew by about 96,300 jobs, compared to growth of 145,000 jobs the year before. That was the peak, so far, of the economic recovery from the Great Recession.
With stall-outs possible in some crucial foreign economies and turmoil shaking Wall Street, the region’s expansion in 2016 depends on American spending from consumers and companies, said Rajeev Dhawan, the center’s director.
“Despite global headwinds, healthy domestic consumption is advancing employment.”
A good year depends on four assumptions, he said: stabilizing oil prices, a leveling-out of the Chinese economy, caution from the Federal Reserve and corporate investment.
In the past year, Georgia job growth dropped 47 percent in sectors that depend on global trade, while it was down only modestly in those tied to U.S. commerce, he said.
Georgia exports dropped last year to China, Japan and Singapore, he said.
If those trends hold, hiring will be stronger in logistics, healthcare and government. And the lion’s share of new jobs will – as it has been for several years – in metro Atlanta, Dhawan said.
Solid, if unspectacular, hiring is likely to continue through 2018, he said.
The national economy will expand at a roughly 2.4 percent pace, Dhawan said, adding that pace also should continue for two years.
The stock market’s volatility has been bad for consumers’ sense of well-being and can undermine spending if it continues, Dhawan said. However, the damage is “nothing like the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008.”
While presidential elections do not generally move the economy dramatically, corporate decision-makers are likely worried about two of the candidates, Dhawan said.
“If Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders wins, it will drastically change tax policy outlook for coming years. Neither of these candidates seems susceptible to lobbying and the shock to boardroom confidence will result in lower capital expenditure spending.”
A drop in business investment would stall growth, he said.
Dhawan offered a thinly veiled criticism of Sanders’ economics, then took a swipe at how Trump’s confrontational style would play in the White House.
“You take up a war with the Chinese? No cement. You insult your neighbors? No workforce.”
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