‘Pretty scared’: Georgia farmers fear crop losses as drought deepens
Most years, April is a busy time at Lee Nunn Farms, a 1,600-acre family farm near Madison.
The corn is already in the ground and reaching skyward. The damp soil in other fields, recharged by winter rains, is being prepped to receive cotton or soybean seeds.
This year, it’s a different story.
A dry spell that began last fall in Georgia reached epic proportions in recent weeks, becoming the state’s worst drought in almost 20 years.
At the farm an hour east of Atlanta, the corn crop planted back in March has barely grown in weeks. Cotton seeding is on indefinite hold because the ground is so hard that tilling it could damage expensive farming equipment. And in some fields, deep cracks have opened in the parched soil.
Lee Nunn, the farm’s owner and a fourth-generation farmer, is used to Mother Nature’s curveballs. But this drought’s intensity — and its unfortunate timing at the start of a growing season — is unlike anything he says he’s faced.
“This is my 25th crop and this is as dry a spring as I’ve ever encountered,” Nunn said.
Indeed, this drought is historic.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map released Thursday shows more than 98% of Georgia now faces “severe,” “extreme” or “exceptional” drought — the third, fourth and fifth levels, respectively, on the five-tiered intensity scale. The last time this much of the Peach State was under drought conditions was around 2007, according to the National Weather Service.
The Peach State is not the only part of the U.S. that needs rain badly.
Across the lower 48 states, the drought conditions are the most expansive they’ve been in spring since at least 2000, when the U.S. Drought Monitor began collecting data. The scant precipitation has increased fears of water shortages along the Colorado River — and the risk that entire cities could run out of water.
This week, the conditions in Georgia sparked devastating wildfires that destroyed homes, triggered a burn ban for much of the state, and sent thick smoke all the way into metro Atlanta. State environmental officials could soon activate the first phase of the state’s drought response plan, a move that would put the state a step closer to water use restrictions.
In a sign of growing concern about Georgia’s agriculture industry, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a disaster declaration for 149 of Georgia’s 159 counties. The move will allow farmers in those counties to apply for emergency loans.
Pinched by war, weather and inflation
Georgia farmers have been brutalized in recent years by factors ranging from surprise cold snaps and hurricanes to geopolitics.
Georgia growers like Nunn were already feeling the pinch from stubborn inflation, trade wars and the recent increase in diesel fuel prices caused by war in the Middle East.
Nunn said nowadays, he needs a near “perfect year to make any money.”
“We’re not perfect right now,” Nunn said. “We are far from it with the weather.”
Each passing day without rain just adds to the stress many farmers were already facing.
Julie Hardy, a fifth-generation farmer who grows row crops in southwest Georgia’s Grady, Mitchell and Thomas counties, said she and her family are “pretty scared” about the situation.
“The input costs are high, the commodity prices are low,” Hardy said. “And whether we make a crop or not, our lenders want their money back.”
‘It just makes things worse’
Georgia’s drought didn’t develop overnight.
In fact, most of Georgia hasn’t received much rain since last fall. Over the last six months, precipitation deficits statewide range from six to 12 inches or more below normal.
While the lack of rain is the drought’s main driver, experts say the situation has been exacerbated by the unusually warm temperatures Georgia saw in late winter and early spring.
Across the globe, human-caused climate change has increased the odds of this kind of extreme heat, research shows. Those higher temperatures take a toll on the landscape, pulling moisture more rapidly from waterways, plants and soils.
Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows this March was the seventh-hottest March on record in Georgia, and the abnormal heat has continued through April.
Research has also shown that climate change tends to push weather patterns toward the extremes, raising the odds of severe droughts, but also heavy rain events.
In short, climate change’s role in the drought should be seen as “more of a multiplier, rather than a cause,” said Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia.
“It just makes things worse,” Knox said.
‘Praying for rain’
Will the skies open up over Georgia soon?
It’s possible some relief could come as soon as this weekend. The National Weather Service’s expects portions of the state to receive half an inch or more rain between Saturday and Sunday. The chances of rain next week are also higher than they’ve been in some time.
The moisture will help, but the scale of the rainfall deficit facing many areas is so severe that Knox, the UGA agricultural climatologist, said it will barely put a dent in the drought.
“There are some signs of hope, but there’s nothing in the short-term that looks like it’s going to bust the drought right away,” Knox said.
Longer-term, it’s unclear when Georgia’s dry spell will really come to an end.
Knox said a tropical storm is often one of the best ways out of a drought. But it’s not a given that one will deliver the soaking rains Georgia needs this year.
A group of influential researchers recently predicted the upcoming hurricane season may be slightly less active than normal. That’s largely because of the expected development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The pattern tends to send westerly winds whipping across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at speeds that can keep tropical storms from forming.
In southwest Georgia, farmers like Hardy are doing the best they can with what little water they have.
Hardy said they’re able to water a small portion of their land with irrigation equipment. All they can do for the rest is hope that rain comes soon.
“We’re just hanging in there, praying for rain, doing all that we know to do,” she said.
A note of disclosure
This coverage is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at AJC.com/donate/climate.
About the Author
Drew Kann is a reporter at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution covering climate change and environmental issues. His passion is for stories that capture how humans are responding to a changing environment. He is a proud graduate of the University of Georgia and Northwestern University, and prior to joining the AJC, he held various roles at CNN.
