Is the cost of Thanksgiving dinner going down? It’s complicated.

Retailers are discounting turkeys this Thanksgiving as consumers grasp tightly to their wallets.

The wholesale price of turkey is up from 2024, but the retail price is dramatically down, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. The average price for a 16-pound frozen turkey is $21.50. That is $1.34 per pound, down more than 16% from last year.

Typically the centerpiece of a Thanksgiving feast, lower turkey prices are helping drive down the average dinner cost 5% from last year, according to the Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey.

To feed a group of 10 for Thanksgiving, it will cost an average of $55.18, or $5.52 per person. And even less in the South — about $50.

Consider that in 2022, when inflation reached a 40-year high, the average Thanksgiving dinner cost $64.05, the Farm Bureau Federation said.

But will Thanksgiving dinner really gobble up less money this year?

It’s a bit complicated.

Grocery stores and other retailers could be discounting turkeys to lure more customers into their doors, especially during a year marked by persistent inflation and global trade wars.

“Turkey is a traffic driver to get you in the store and buying profitable items,” said Doug Bowman, a marketing professor at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School. “The last thing a grocer wants is you switching a big order like your Thanksgiving shopping to a competitor.”

A shopper walks past turkeys displayed for sale in a grocery store ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in Los Angeles. Grocery stores and other retailers could be discounting turkeys to lure more customers into their doors. (Mario Tama/Getty Images/TNS 2021)

For example, Walmart is offering a Thanksgiving deal for 10 people at less than $40. The offer includes a Butterball turkey for 97 cents per pound, what the retailer called its lowest price since 2019.

President Donald Trump earlier this month touted Walmart’s package as a sign “grocery prices are way down,” according to NBC News.

“It is 25% lower than one year ago. That’s a big deal,” said Trump.

But conservative talk radio host Erick Erickson disputed his claim Thursday in an opinion piece for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

“It really is not true,” Erickson wrote. “Last year’s cornucopia of goods at Walmart contained 21 items. This year’s contains just 15 products. Counting individual cans of goods, last year’s contained 29 items and this year’s contains 22.”

He also noted that Walmart included more of its “Great Value” generic items this year.

“Tariffs really are having an impact,” Erickson wrote. “Coffee prices are up. Banana prices are up. As we move from fall harvests into winter, imported fruit and vegetable prices are higher.”

Overall, grocery prices increased 2.7% in September over the prior year, according to the most recent data available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

How much people end up paying for Thanksgiving dinner likely depends on what they buy.

The meal the Farm Bureau Federation tracked included turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream and whole milk.

A customer shops for produce on Monday, Nov. 10, 2025, in Baltimore. Overall, grocery prices increased 2.7% in September over the prior year, according to the most recent data available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Stephanie Scarbrough/AP)

But their basket omits some common items at holiday festivities, such as alcoholic beverages. The price of store-bought booze was up 0.3% in September year over year, with beer increasing 1%, distilled spirits up 1.8% and wine down 1.2%.

Other items that have soared in price also weren’t on the list, such as coffee, up almost 19% in September year over year, and beef steaks, which rose nearly 17% during that time, according to the most recent BLS data.

Trump recently rolled back tariffs on some food products, such as beef, coffee and tropical fruits, amid inflation concerns.

This Thanksgiving follows a lengthy federal government shutdown that ended last week, which paused Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for weeks. In November, consumer sentiment dropped to the second-lowest level on record, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers.

“As we approach the holidays, we know consumers remain cautious,” Richard Gomez, chief commercial officer for Target, said on an earnings call this week. “Sentiment is at a three-year low amid concerns about jobs, affordability and tariffs.”

So, he said, Target is offering a Thanksgiving deal that’s “one of our most affordable yet,” feeding a family of four for less than $20. That includes its Good & Gather brand of turkey at 79 cents per pound, along with potatoes, stuffing and other seasonal sides for less than $5, he said.