Well, look at that, it turns out the guy you thought is clueless about football might just know what he’s doing. Falcons offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian had a good weekend, too.
Weekend Predictions is feeling a little cocky after going 11-4 against the spread in Week 4. A comeuppance is inevitable, of course, but I've got to boast every chance I get. Who knows if I'll ever get this lucky again?
Seriously, kudos to Sarkisian. Before the season I wrote that the Falcons should play faster and use more play-action, like in 2016. They played that style against the Panthers, and the offense hummed. Forget what I said about luck: I'm just that good.
Just kidding. I'm wrong all the time. Heck, I thought Georgia Tech would be pretty good this season. If they somehow beat Clemson on Saturday, I'll just pretend I was right.
Saints (plus-3) at Falcons
Falcons starting guard Andy Levitre was placed on injured reserve, a list that already included defensive starters Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Running back Devona Freeman may be out again. If you are inclined to give Dan Quinn a pass because of the long injury list, Mike Smith would like a word with you.
The Saints gave up a combined 663 passing yards and five touchdowns to quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor. Maybe that’s bit misleading because Fitzpatrick produced 417 of those yards and four TDs, but does that sound any better? Fitzpatrick is the old, retread QB that Taylor aspires to be one day.
The Saints always have a chance with QB Drew Brees, who needs 14 receptions to break Brett Favre's NFL record. He needs a better defense against the Falcons, who score enough points to win by four.
Georgia (minus-14.5) at Missouri
Purdue quarterback David Blough began the season as the backup, and last weekend Missouri's defense made him look like ex-Boilermaker Brees. Bulldogs QB Jake Fromm is better than Blough, and the Bulldogs have much more speed than Purdue. Georgia's defense hasn't been tested, but it's better than Purdue's.
And here’s a little secret about Mizzou QB Drew Lock: He hasn’t been accurate against better competition. If he lights up the Bulldogs, I’ll just pretend I never said that. But I’m so confident he won’t, that I’ll go against everything I believe in and take the Bulldogs as big road favorites.
Clemson (minus-16.5) at Georgia Tech
You can't say opponents have figured out Paul Johnson's option because, at crucial moments, he keeps trying to pass. Last week Johnson gave the ball to a defensive end on a fake punt deep in Tech's end, with seven yards to go, then said it might have worked if the player ran to the edge. The smart coach seems to be outsmarting himself.
Maybe the Yellow Jackets just don’t have enough good players. But I remember the times Johnson dismissed those star rankings and smirked after besting foes with better recruits. These Jackets don’t seem to have it in them to rise above their station, so I’m backing another big road favorite.
NFC South
Bengals (plus-3) at Panthers
Good news for the Panthers. Tight end Greg Olsen began on-field rehab for his fractured foot, which means he could soon return to watching Cam Newton’s passes sail over his head. Bengals cover.
Steelers (minus-1) at Buccaneers
Steelers star wide receiver Antonio Brown skipped work Monday. A former team employee took to Twitter that QB Ben Roethlisberger made Brown's career. Brown responded: "Trade me let's find out." Brown later said it was "stupid" to respond, but come on, that was a brilliant comeback. Steelers cover.
Other NFL games of interest
Patriots (minus-6.5) at Lions
The Patriots traded for wide receiver Josh Gordon. It’s just like that time New England traded for Randy Moss and went on to win the Super Bowl, except that Gordon isn’t nearly as good as Moss and the Pats (probably) aren’t cheating now. The market is inflating the Pats’ line again, so I’ll take the Lions to cover.
Raiders (plus-3) at Dolphins
The Raiders can't pressure the quarterback, and coach Jon Gruden noted that it's hard to find a great pass rusher. Gruden proved that it's easy to trade one after you won't pay him, then watch him singlehandedly produce more big plays for his new team than the entire Oakland defense. I'm taking the Dolphins and giving the points.
SEC games of interest
Florida (minus-4.5) at Tennessee
This is one of those fun rivalry games in which both teams aren’t that good, but the winner will have the illusion that it may not be so bad after all. Even better is that reality will set in the very next week, when Tennessee is at Georgia and Florida is at Mississippi State. I like the home ’dog.
Texas A&M (minus-26) at Alabama
I’d feel bad for bookmakers setting the line on Alabama if I could have any sympathy for the house. They keep posting big spreads for the Crimson Tide, bettors keep backing them and Alabama keeps covering. The line went too far this time, though. Aggies cover.
Arkansas (plus-30) at Auburn
The Tigers blew a lead against LSU again, this time at home. Now is a good time to mention that Gus Malzahn hasn’t looked so clever without Nick Marshall as his QB. Arkansas should help him look smart again, but the Hogs cover.
ACC games of interest
Notre Dame (minus-7.5) at Wake Forest
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly accused Vanderbilt of playing "bad football" last week because his guys were getting cut blocked ... by 'Dores defenders? Vandy coach Derek Mason shot back: "If he has something personal with me, he can come see me." It's silly for a coach to make playground taunts. Thankfully, we know Kelly wouldn't accept a one-on-one challenge because then he wouldn't have anyone else to blame for losing. Fighting Irish cover.
Boston College (minus-6.5) at Purdue
BC coach Steve Addazio has managed to win consistently in a pro sports town despite lackluster recruiting rankings. I know what you’re thinking, but BC isn’t analogous to Georgia Tech. BC plays in the ACC’s stronger division. To be fair, Johnson is 2-0 against BC, but petty pot shots are more fun. BC covers.
Northern Illinois (plus-10) at Florida State
After first-year Seminoles coach Willie Taggart's 1-2 start, AD Mark Harlan provided his support, telling the Tallahassee Democrat: "I'm a big believer in Willie Taggart." Unfortunately for Taggart, Harlan was the AD for his old employer, South Florida. The AD who hired Taggart, Stan Wilcox, is leaving for a job at the NCAA. Good move. There's less accountability at the NCAA. I like Northern Illinois with the points.
Last week’s picks
Against the spread: 11-4 (20-15-1 season)
AJC pick 'em contest (straight up): 7-6 (21-22 season)
