Purdue did Georgia and everyone else a favor by blowing out Urban Meyer's Ohio State on Saturday. That leaves three unbeaten Power 5 teams: Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame. But the updated College Football Playoff predictions by ESPN and FiveThiryEight still have Georgia outside of the top four.
ESPN has Georgia (7-1) behind the three unbeaten teams and Michigan (7-1). FiveThirtyEight gives Georgia the seventh-best odds to make the playoffs behind the unbeaten teams, Michigan and two other one-loss teams, Oklahoma and Ohio State. If the sixth-ranked Bulldogs (6-1) beat Florida (6-1) this weekend and the other top contenders also win, Georgia probably will be outside of the top four when the CFP committee releases its initial rankings after this week’s games.
However, the Bulldogs appear to have a good shot at cracking the top four if they win out because of their remaining strength of schedule. That’s obviously a big “if” because it almost certainly would mean Georgia beating No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game. But the Bulldogs would give themselves a chance by winning out in the regular season.
(A two-loss team might end up making the CFP but that means there would be a lot of unpredictable chaos. Let’s not even get into that.)
The committee tends to favor "strength of victory" when comparing two teams of equal records, with polls as the primary indicator of opponent strength. Florida is ranked No. 9 in the AP poll and 11th in the coaches' poll and Georgia's next opponent, Kentucky, is 7th/12th.
No. 8 Oklahoma (6-1) has just one currently-ranked team left on its schedule, at No. 13/12 West Virginia on Nov. 23. If the Sooners win out they would go to the Big 12 Championship Game and could get another shot at No. 6/7 Texas, which beat them in Week 6.
Ohio State’s remaining schedule includes just one currently-ranked opponent, Michigan (7-1). If the Buckeyes (7-1) win out they would meet the West champion in the conference title game. The opponent could be one-loss and No. 18 Iowa.
LSU would likely make the playoffs if it wins out. Trouble with that is it means LSU has to beat Alabama on Nov. 3, win at Texas A&M in the regular-season finale and then beat the SEC East champ in Atlanta. That tough road is why, despite LSU's quality wins, FiveThirtyEight and ESPN both give the Tigers the eight-best odds to make the playoffs.
Among one-loss teams the Wolverines are a threat to take the fourth spot if they win out. Like Georgia, they have two more games against ranked opponents: vs. No.17/16 Penn State and at No. 11/9 Ohio State. But it’s hard to imagine the committee would take one-loss Big Ten champ Michigan over one-loss SEC champ Georgia, especially after the Bulldogs toppled ‘Bama.
And therein is the rub for the Bulldogs. The reason the CFP prediction metrics give Michigan a better chance to make the playoffs is because, even if the Bulldogs conquer Florida and Kentucky and then beat the three remaining underdogs, they’d have to top Alabama in Atlanta. Yes, Nick Saban has gone undefeated just once, but it’s hard to see Georgia beating the Crimson Tide given their respective performances so far.
SB Nation advanced stats guru Bill Connelly calculates Resume S&P, which he describes as “how the average top-five team’s scoring margin would’ve likely been against that schedule.” The Crimson Tide have won their games by an average margin of 38.3 points, whereas per Resume S&P the average top-five team’s win margin against their schedule would be 20.7.
"That's a massive difference, by far the biggest in FBS," Connelly writes.
Still, Georgia ranks fifth in Resume S&P, behind Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Oklahoma. Connelly's S&P efficiency rankings give the Bulldogs a 27 percent chance to win their remaining regular-season games. That's lower than Oklahoma (37 percent) and Michigan (34 percent) but higher than Ohio State (19 percent).
Georgia is a good team with some significant flaws. That describes every contender outside of Tuscaloosa. The Bulldogs have much to prove after the debacle in Baton Rouge but they still have a decent chance to recover and get back in the CFP race.
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