11 Days Left

Thursday was pretty much a dud when it comes to new and exciting angles on the campaign trail, as both sides are furiously fighting down to the wire in the battle for Congress.

A new Pew Research poll gave Republicans more reason to close their eyes, cross their fingers, and hope that all these poll numbers are accurate, as it found a 10-point edge for the GOP among likely voters in the generic Congressional ballot.

"Tsunami Warning For Democrats," read one headline about the poll, which found the environment is still improving for the GOP.

"The prospects for a GOP turnout advantage on Election Day are almost as favorable in the new Pew Research Center survey as they have been in all previous polls throughout the campaign," the poll report said.

The addition of that poll into the mix left the generic ballot average at +7 for the GOP, which is truly territory that could scare the ballots out of Democrats right now.

One of those places is the first District in Maryland, where freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD) is trying to hold onto his seat.

National Democrats have pumped over $1 million into this race, even though many think that Kratovil has been dead meat for months.

"Prior to 2008, this seat was safely in the Republican fold. It looks like it will revert to form in 2010," said Patrick Murray, the head of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

In a second poll issued by Monmouth on Thursday, the school looked at a GOP district in suburban Philadelphia that's held by Republican Jim Gerlach, who has never won his elections by more than 4%.

This year, the poll found Gerlach leading by 10 points, as "the national Republican surge looks to give him a more comfortable re-election margin," added Murray.

That surge could be here in Mississippi as well, where Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS) - maybe the most conservative Blue Dog around - was behind in a poll released earlier this week.

"Now, even Democrats acknowledge Taylor is in very serious trouble," wrote political expert Charlie Cook, who moved Taylor's race into the "Toss Up" category as well.

Troubles for Gene Taylor send a very serious signal to people who watch Capitol Hill like myself - this is one of the last guys you would think could possibly lose his seat.

I have to admit that if Gene Taylor is going down, then a lot of other Democrats would go down to defeat before him, which again raises the question of how bad is this election storm - it is a major hurricane?

"We know it's not going down to a tropical storm - it's a hurricane," said veteran political expert Norm Ornstein.

But how many seats will the GOP win?  "I'm still not sure if it's a category three, four or five," Ornstein said.

We'll know in 11 days.

These are the 42 House seats listed as "Toss-Ups" by Real Clear Politics:

 AL2    AZ7    AZ8    CA11    CA20    CT4    CT5    FL22    GA2    GA8    HI1    IA1    IA3    IL10    IN9     MA10    MI7    MI9    MO4    NC11    NC7    NH2    NJ3    NM1   NM2  NV3    NY1    NY13    NY23    NY25    OH18    OH6    OR5    PA12    SC5    SD-AL    TX23    VA11    VA9    WA2    WA9    WV1    

Thursday was pretty much a dud when it comes to new and exciting angles on the campaign trail, as both sides are furiously fighting down to the wire in the battle for Congress. A new Pew Research poll gave Republicans more reason to close their eyes, cross their fingers, and ...