Big Election Week
Lots of people are calling tomorrow "Super Tuesday" when it comes to the 2010 Congressional mid-term elections, as Political Washington wonders if there will be more Incumbent Blood spilled on Tuesday night.
So far, one GOP Senator from Utah and one Democratic House member from West Virginia have bitten the dust.
Compare that to the last three election cycles in the primary season for House members:
* In 2008, four incumbents lost in primaries
* In 2006, two incumbents were defeated
* In 2004, two incumbents lost primaries
In those three elections, how many Senators lost? Well, that's sort of a trick question, because the only one to lose a primary was Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) in 2006. But Lieberman then ran as an Independent and won his seat back in November.
And for those wondering how this year might compare to 1994, when Republicans took over the House and Senate - that year, only four incumbents lost in the House, as most of the electoral slaughter took place in November.
Here's a quick thumbnail of what to watch this week:
ARKANSAS: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is facing a tough challenge from the liberal wing of the party, as Lt. Gov. Bill Halter bids for an upset. While the polls show Lincoln ahead, there is a third candidate who could keep Lincoln from getting 50% of the vote, which would force a runoff in June.
KENTUCKY: The GOP Establishment could suffer a defeat here as Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) tries to win the Senate Republican nomination. Polls show Grayson trailing Rand Paul, who is backed by Tea Party and conservative activists. A win for Paul would be a defeat for Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who recently endorsed Grayson.
OREGON: The hot battle here is the Governor's race. No Congressional incumbents seem in any trouble.
PENNSYLVANIA: The Senate race on the Democratic side could make big news, as Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter (D-PA) tries to fend off a primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA). Don't forget that the White House is involved here, as President Obama has publicly endorsed Specter. Also, there is a special election for the seat of the late Rep. John Murtha in the southwest of Pennsylvania, which Republicans hope to win. As for any House incumbents in trouble, some say watch Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) in the northeastern part of the Keystone State.
HAWAII: Saturday brings a special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI). Democrats should be favored, but two strong candidates are running in the open-election field, which may mean the vote gets split and therefore a victory for Republicans.
Tuesday sounds like a good day for golf in the afternoon, popcorn in the evening and lots of results and Tweets as the primary vote rolls in.
Lots of people are calling tomorrow "Super Tuesday" when it comes to the 2010 Congressional mid-term elections, as Political Washington wonders if there will be more Incumbent Blood spilled on Tuesday night. So far, one GOP Senator from Utah and one Democratic House member from West Virginia have bitten the ...
