- Meanwhile, Tucker, who has rolled to a 7-1 record by an average score of 43-13, keeps slipping in the ratings. Their two toughest opponents, Colquitt County and Kell, have themselves not proven to be quite as strong as they had in the past. Colquitt County, a 35-21 winner over Tucker early in the season, now looks to be the third best team in Region 1-AAAAAAA while Kell, who the Tigers edged 28-27 in overtime to open the season, has slipped to 4-4 under first-year coach Brett Sloan and have given up more points than any Longhorn team in a decade with still yet two more games left to play. Tucker won't be able to prove much against 1-7 Mount Zion of Jonesboro this coming weekend, but they'll close out the season against a decent Stephenson team.

- Cartersville pushed past a rating of 90.00 off the strength of a 62-0 drubbing of Chapel Hill. The Purple Hurricanes are nearly 20 points better than Class AAAA's second highest rated team, Ridgeland. That's the largest gap between any highest- and second-highest rated team in any classification.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 1.99%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,538 of 1,649 total games including 0 tie(s) (93.33%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.04 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.02

By Class

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.