High School Sports Blog

Maxwell Week 2 summary: Grayson routs Tucker to close in on Colquitt

Grayson senior wide receiver Kenyon Jackson.
Grayson senior wide receiver Kenyon Jackson.
By Loren Maxwell
Aug 27, 2018

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Grayson manhandled Tucker 48-7 to give the Tigers their second lopsided loss in as many games to a top ranked opponent (Tucker lost 40-14 to Buford last week) and their worst loss in over a quarter of a century.  While the computer advances the Rams’ rating for the impressive win, it still doesn’t lose faith in Tucker, who actually moves up from #4 to #2 in Class AAAAAA.  This is due in part to previous #2 Coffee’s uninspiring 23-6 win over Salem and Peach County’s win over previous #3 Northside (Warner Robins).  Tucker now begins region play where the computer predicts a 73.1% chance of them running the table, placing them on the path to possibly meet the top seed from Region 1-AAAAAA in the semifinals, currently projected to be Class AAAAAA’s #1 rated Lee County.

- Although Pace Academy unexpectedly dumped Eagle’s Landing Christian 17-16, the Chargers remain dominate among the private schools in Class A, still holding a two touchdown lead over #2 Mount Paran Christian.

- There is a 70.0% chance that Colquitt County and Grayson will be undefeated in the state when they meet in September, the highest rated match up of the season by far.  This does not account for Grayson’s game next week against Bergen Catholic out of New Jersey.

» Photos: Week 2 Georgia high school football

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 52.01%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 319 of 327 total games including 0 tie(s) (97.55%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.96 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.73

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Colquitt County2-095.441Lee County2-078.19
2Grayson1-095.002Tucker0-273.31
3North Gwinnett1-088.693Coffee2-073.24
4Lowndes2-086.554Glynn Academy1-172.96
5Walton2-082.975Northside (Warner Robins)1-171.15
6McEachern1-181.626Harrison2-070.80
7Norcross1-078.617Valdosta1-167.93
8Mill Creek1-178.158Mays0-266.66
9Parkview1-077.799Allatoona0-166.42
10Milton2-076.8210Creekview2-063.85
11Archer0-176.3711Dalton1-063.30
12Tift County1-174.8512Douglas County1-160.52
13Hillgrove2-073.8313Alpharetta0-160.36
14Brookwood1-173.4014Dacula1-159.44
15North Cobb2-073.1115Effingham County2-059.40
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Buford2-088.911Cartersville1-087.14
2Rome1-087.552Blessed Trinity2-079.16
3Warner Robins2-075.763Marist1-073.36
4Stockbridge1-074.754Mary Persons2-065.33
5Ware County2-067.835Sandy Creek1-063.35
6Carrollton1-064.866Burke County0-262.21
7Jones County2-064.477Troup1-061.54
8Kell1-063.108Thomson0-161.24
9Dutchtown2-062.229Woodward Academy1-159.72
10Bainbridge2-060.4810Eastside2-059.22
11Starr's Mill1-060.3811St. Pius X1-158.45
12Griffin1-159.5412Cedartown1-157.38
13Southwest DeKalb2-056.8813West Laurens2-056.15
14Wayne County1-056.4314Chapel Hill2-056.12
15Clarke Central2-055.7115Flowery Branch1-052.55
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Benedictine1-076.781Hapeville Charter1-072.57
2Peach County1-073.932Brooks County1-062.44
3Calhoun1-071.833Thomasville2-061.08
4Cedar Grove2-068.834Callaway1-061.00
5Westminster (Atlanta)2-068.665Rockmart2-055.97
6Greater Atlanta Christian1-166.836Fitzgerald1-153.53
7Pace Academy2-061.087Rabun County1-152.44
8Lovett0-257.068Dodge County1-052.26
9Jefferson0-154.219Heard County1-051.88
10Liberty County1-053.5110Dublin2-050.52
11Crisp County1-150.8611Washington County2-050.29
12Westside (Macon)2-048.9312Bremen2-049.08
13Monroe Area2-048.5813Vidalia1-048.40
14Dawson County2-046.4214Elbert County2-046.69
15Pierce County2-045.4015Screven County1-145.68
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County2-057.041Eagle's Landing Christian1-165.97
2Clinch County1-051.842Mount Paran Christian1-051.20
3Manchester1-047.373Prince Avenue Christian2-050.97
4Commerce2-045.254Athens Academy1-049.18
5Mount Zion (Carroll)1-043.325Darlington2-046.92
6Emanuel County Institute0-142.606Calvary Day1-045.31
7Charlton County2-040.157Aquinas2-038.59
8Pelham2-038.188Savannah Country Day1-037.98
9Macon County0-137.579Fellowship Christian2-037.30
10Marion County2-036.9010Wesleyan0-236.12
11Dooly County1-036.8611Stratford Academy0-135.95
12Turner County1-134.1712Savannah Christian1-134.92
13Trion1-034.0213Tattnall Square1-134.52
14Lincoln County1-133.4414Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)2-033.24
15Washington-Wilkes0-131.5615George Walton Academy1-031.40

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA2-095.4481.624
2 [2]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA1-095.0071.5815
3 [1]Buford8 - AAAAA2-088.9155.7479
4 [3]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA1-088.6973.4010
5 [2]Rome7 - AAAAA1-087.5565.2830
6 [1]Cartersville5 - AAAA1-087.1464.6934
7 [4]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA2-086.5521.21324
8 [5]Walton4 - AAAAAAA2-082.9771.6614
9 [6]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA1-181.6265.1731
10 [2]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA2-079.1662.6046
11 [7]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA1-078.6168.3923
12 [1]Lee County1 - AAAAAA2-078.1921.78321
13 [8]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA1-178.1570.3418
14 [9]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA1-077.7963.0944
15 [10]Milton5 - AAAAAAA2-076.8269.2321
16 [1]Benedictine3 - AAA1-076.7862.2147
17 [11]Archer8 - AAAAAAA0-176.3776.827
18 [3]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA2-075.7663.6741
19 [12]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA1-174.8571.8512
20 [4]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA1-074.7550.68109
21 [2]Peach County4 - AAA1-073.9371.1517
22 [13]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA2-073.8355.8578
23 [14]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA1-173.4066.2727
24 [3]Marist7 - AAAA1-073.3655.3381
25 [2]Tucker4 - AAAAAA0-273.3192.821
26 [3]Coffee1 - AAAAAA2-073.2448.23124
27 [15]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA2-073.1160.5860
28 [4]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA1-172.9623.88308
29 [1]Hapeville Charter6 - AA1-072.5736.41220
30 [3]Calhoun6 - AAA1-071.8348.48122
31 [16]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA1-071.7845.64142
32 [5]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA1-171.1564.1338
33 [6]Harrison6 - AAAAAA2-070.8051.8996
34 [4]Cedar Grove5 - AAA2-068.83  
35 [17]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA2-068.8038.56202
36 [5]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA2-068.6663.2843
37 [7]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA1-167.9358.9365
38 [5]Ware County2 - AAAAA2-067.8363.9440
39 [6]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA1-166.8361.1356
40 [18]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA1-166.7561.7051
41 [8]Mays5 - AAAAAA0-266.6676.886
42 [19]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA2-066.4737.22212
43 [9]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA0-166.4288.872
44 [1]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A1-165.9745.07151
45 [20]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA1-165.8759.5462
46 [21]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA1-065.3961.0957
47 [4]Mary Persons2 - AAAA2-065.3340.18186
48 [22]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA0-265.2887.553
49 [6]Carrollton7 - AAAAA1-064.8655.2682
50 [23]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA1-164.8264.8633
51 [24]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA1-164.6753.0390
52 [7]Jones County4 - AAAAA2-064.4740.75183
53 [10]Creekview6 - AAAAAA2-063.8550.25113
54 [25]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA0-163.4481.245
55 [5]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA1-063.3547.43127
56 [11]Dalton6 - AAAAAA1-063.3038.13207
57 [8]Kell7 - AAAAA1-063.1055.2683
58 [2]Brooks County1 - AA1-062.4427.82280
59 [9]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA2-062.2247.16130
60 [6]Burke County3 - AAAA0-262.2171.4416
61 [7]Troup5 - AAAA1-061.5450.21114
62 [26]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA0-161.2767.6025
63 [8]Thomson3 - AAAA0-161.24  
65 [3]Thomasville1 - AA2-061.0848.96119
64 [7]Pace Academy5 - AAA2-061.0850.78107
66 [4]Callaway5 - AA1-061.00  
67 [12]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA1-160.5262.1349
68 [10]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA2-060.4830.75261
69 [11]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA1-060.3826.28293
70 [13]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA0-160.3675.098
71 [27]Newton8 - AAAAAAA1-160.1845.85140
72 [9]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA1-159.7250.32112
73 [12]Griffin3 - AAAAA1-159.5451.6299
74 [14]Dacula8 - AAAAAA1-159.4458.0369
75 [15]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA2-059.4020.06333
76 [28]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA1-159.3657.5172
77 [10]Eastside4 - AAAA2-059.2252.7992
78 [16]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA0-258.6274.979
79 [11]St. Pius X8 - AAAA1-158.4550.32111
80 [17]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA1-058.3849.94115
81 [12]Cedartown5 - AAAA1-157.3854.3185
82 [18]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA1-057.1742.22175
83 [29]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA1-157.1253.5087
84 [8]Lovett5 - AAA0-257.0671.8313
85 [1]Irwin County2 - A2-057.0442.59172
86 [13]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA2-056.8851.8798
87 [30]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA0-256.4968.4822
88 [14]Wayne County2 - AAAAA1-056.4311.17362
89 [13]West Laurens2 - AAAA2-056.1529.04272
90 [14]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA2-056.1248.94120
91 [5]Rockmart7 - AA2-055.9744.93157
92 [31]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA2-055.9344.91158
93 [15]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA2-055.7149.74116
94 [32]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA0-255.2663.9839
95 [19]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA1-154.3245.37146
96 [33]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA1-154.2251.16101
97 [9]Jefferson8 - AAA0-154.2151.55100
98 [34]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA1-053.7743.72163
99 [6]Fitzgerald1 - AA1-153.5343.09167
100 [10]Liberty County2 - AAA1-053.5138.35205
101 [20]Lanier8 - AAAAAA1-153.0852.4693
102 [21]Alexander5 - AAAAAA0-152.6659.1064
103 [22]Centennial7 - AAAAAA0-152.6069.4220
104 [15]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA1-052.5526.73291
105 [16]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA1-152.5054.5084
106 [7]Rabun County8 - AA1-152.4441.14180
107 [17]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA1-152.4160.9358
108 [8]Dodge County3 - AA1-052.2638.35204
109 [23]Hughes5 - AAAAAA0-251.9263.5242
110 [9]Heard County5 - AA1-051.8834.43235
111 [2]Clinch County2 - A1-051.8431.58253
112 [16]Cairo1 - AAAA0-251.7360.7859
113 [17]Spalding2 - AAAA1-151.6254.2086
114 [2]Mount Paran Christian6 - A1-051.2017.71342
115 [35]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA1-151.1953.5088
116 [3]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A2-050.9726.11295
117 [11]Crisp County1 - AAA1-150.8651.07103
118 [18]Banneker6 - AAAAA2-050.7438.02208
119 [19]Veterans1 - AAAAA2-050.6438.89199
120 [10]Dublin3 - AA2-050.5237.70209
121 [20]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA1-150.4346.79132
122 [11]Washington County3 - AA2-050.2939.77194
123 [18]Oconee County8 - AAAA1-149.8253.2389
124 [24]Northgate5 - AAAAAA0-149.6755.9577
125 [4]Athens Academy8 - A1-049.1833.19244
126 [25]Evans3 - AAAAAA0-249.1057.6770
127 [12]Bremen5 - AA2-049.0836.31222
128 [36]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA1-149.0443.01170
129 [12]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA2-048.9336.11225
130 [13]Monroe Area8 - AAA2-048.5829.84268
131 [19]Ridgeland6 - AAAA0-248.4865.8228
132 [37]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA2-048.4128.26277
133 [13]Vidalia2 - AA1-048.4034.33236
134 [38]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA1-148.2153.0291
135 [21]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA1-147.7038.60201
136 [39]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA1-147.6645.93138
138 [3]Manchester4 - A1-047.3732.61249
137 [40]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA1-147.3757.1074
139 [22]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA0-247.1252.0195
140 [5]Darlington6 - A2-046.9233.30243
141 [14]Elbert County8 - AA2-046.6931.27255
142 [26]Houston County1 - AAAAAA1-146.6836.19224
143 [23]Hiram7 - AAAAA0-146.6672.5311
144 [14]Dawson County7 - AAA2-046.4229.86267
145 [27]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA1-146.2046.14136
146 [24]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA1-146.1846.35135
147 [28]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA1-146.1444.19159
148 [20]Perry2 - AAAA2-046.1138.51203
149 [21]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA1-145.9936.32221
150 [25]Whitewater3 - AAAAA0-145.7061.6252
151 [15]Screven County4 - AA1-145.6845.02153
152 [26]Riverwood6 - AAAAA2-045.6731.72252
153 [41]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA0-245.5764.9732
154 [15]Pierce County2 - AAA2-045.4026.97287
155 [6]Calvary Day3 - A1-045.31-14.23404
156 [4]Commerce8 - A2-045.2532.55250
157 [22]Stephens County8 - AAAA2-045.0929.57271
158 [16]Swainsboro2 - AA1-044.9443.04168
159 [23]White County7 - AAAA1-044.8120.43331
160 [24]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA2-044.6032.26251
161 [25]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA1-144.2547.37128
162 [27]East Paulding7 - AAAAA0-144.1142.52173
163 [26]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA1-044.0224.37304
164 [29]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA0-144.0165.5829
165 [16]Pike County4 - AAA2-043.938.32375
167 [30]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA0-243.6656.5076
166 [28]Ola4 - AAAAA0-243.6657.6771
168 [17]Cook1 - AAA2-043.5632.80247
169 [29]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA2-043.4429.59270
170 [5]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A1-043.3222.95317
171 [18]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA1-043.2943.95162
172 [27]Howard2 - AAAA1-143.2545.07152
173 [30]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA1-143.0145.43145
174 [6]Emanuel County Institute3 - A0-142.6052.2594
175 [31]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA1-142.4240.08188
176 [19]North Hall7 - AAA2-042.0325.50297
177 [32]Paulding County7 - AAAAA0-241.9961.2854
178 [20]Jenkins3 - AAA1-141.9038.24206
179 [28]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA1-041.65-15.14405
180 [17]Douglass6 - AA2-041.5828.76274
181 [18]Jefferson County4 - AA0-241.3147.62126
182 [29]Salem4 - AAAA1-141.3056.9575
183 [31]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA0-240.7861.3453
184 [32]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA1-140.73  
185 [33]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA0-140.6643.03169
186 [33]Riverdale3 - AAAAA2-040.5530.56263
187 [34]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA1-140.4955.4480
188 [7]Charlton County2 - A2-040.1519.25337
189 [34]Loganville8 - AAAAA1-140.0440.96181
190 [35]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA1-139.8959.3263
191 [21]Ringgold6 - AAA1-139.8648.63121
192 [35]Pope7 - AAAAAA0-139.6558.8567
193 [30]Pickens6 - AAAA1-039.61-6.80399
194 [36]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA1-139.0539.94189
195 [31]West Hall7 - AAAA1-139.0323.42314
196 [37]Creekside5 - AAAAAA0-238.9464.3536
197 [38]Northview7 - AAAAAA1-038.8525.36300
198 [7]Aquinas7 - A2-038.5922.38319
199 [36]Cass7 - AAAAA1-038.3333.01245
200 [32]Baldwin3 - AAAA0-238.2457.3873
201 [8]Pelham1 - A2-038.1817.31346
202 [33]Columbus1 - AAAA1-038.0030.11266
203 [8]Savannah Country Day3 - A1-037.9834.22237
204 [42]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA1-137.9049.36118
205 [37]Harris County1 - AAAAA0-237.8846.77133
206 [38]Statesboro2 - AAAAA1-037.8131.23256
207 [34]Hardaway1 - AAAA1-037.659.47371
208 [19]Pepperell7 - AA0-137.5945.19148
209 [9]Macon County4 - A0-137.5739.91192
210 [39]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA2-037.36  
211 [40]Drew4 - AAAAAA0-237.3464.4135
212 [9]Fellowship Christian6 - A2-037.3022.34320
213 [10]Marion County4 - A2-036.9018.81338
214 [11]Dooly County4 - A1-036.8623.46313
215 [22]Jackson4 - AAA0-236.6958.9166
217 [42]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA0-236.6251.16102
216 [41]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA0-236.6268.1324
218 [39]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA1-136.5735.57229
219 [43]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA0-236.4169.4819
220 [10]Wesleyan5 - A0-236.1243.70164
221 [11]Stratford Academy7 - A0-135.9539.71195
222 [44]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA1-135.9037.15213
223 [43]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA1-135.8330.88260
224 [20]Toombs County2 - AA2-035.700.88393
225 [40]Union Grove4 - AAAAA1-035.6420.48330
226 [21]Chattooga7 - AA1-135.5335.43232
227 [45]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA0-135.1367.0726
229 [46]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA1-134.9235.68228
228 [12]Savannah Christian3 - A1-134.9250.91105
230 [35]Westover1 - AAAA0-134.9045.28147
231 [23]Monroe1 - AAA2-034.787.97376
232 [41]South Effingham2 - AAAAA1-134.7725.67296
233 [24]Adairsville6 - AAA1-134.7436.93214
234 [42]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA1-034.7024.90302
235 [13]Tattnall Square7 - A1-134.5235.84227
236 [36]LaGrange5 - AAAA0-134.4351.8897
237 [22]Southwest3 - AA0-134.3350.66110
238 [37]Hampton4 - AAAA1-034.2330.93259
239 [12]Turner County2 - A1-134.1732.64248
240 [13]Trion6 - A1-034.0227.28285
241 [38]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA1-133.9628.88273
242 [43]Columbia5 - AAAAA1-133.8634.75234
243 [23]Union County8 - AA1-033.8023.27315
244 [44]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA1-033.586.81380
245 [47]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA0-233.5547.36129
246 [24]Bleckley County3 - AA1-133.5333.97240
247 [14]Lincoln County7 - A1-133.44  
248 [25]Morgan County8 - AAA1-133.3328.68275
249 [14]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A2-033.2423.63311
250 [25]Jeff Davis2 - AA2-032.7917.90340
251 [48]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA0-132.7844.14160
252 [26]Appling County2 - AAA0-132.6046.67134
253 [39]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA1-132.4739.06198
254 [49]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA1-132.4744.02161
255 [50]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA1-032.2928.51276
256 [40]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA2-031.9111.06363
257 [44]Lithonia5 - AAAAA2-031.8117.12347
258 [26]Berrien1 - AA1-131.6540.12187
259 [27]Early County1 - AA1-131.6147.91125
260 [15]Washington-Wilkes7 - A0-131.5644.97156
261 [27]North Murray6 - AAA0-131.4750.71108
262 [15]George Walton Academy8 - A1-031.4023.55312
263 [41]North Oconee8 - AAAA2-031.2916.49350
264 [16]Telfair County2 - A1-031.253.46387
265 [28]Hart County8 - AAA0-230.9845.89139
266 [17]Taylor County4 - A0-130.8945.64143
267 [51]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA0-130.1739.86193
268 [28]Spencer5 - AA0-230.1142.17176
269 [29]Sonoraville6 - AAA1-029.9611.18361
270 [29]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA1-129.9034.00239
271 [45]McIntosh3 - AAAAA0-229.8842.51174
272 [16]Hebron Christian Academy8 - A1-129.8536.62217
273 [30]Central (Macon)4 - AAA0-129.7348.41123
274 [45]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA0-229.5941.45179
275 [18]Mitchell County1 - A0-129.5564.1737
276 [52]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA0-129.5136.08226
277 [17]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A1-129.4236.26223
278 [46]Fayette County3 - AAAAA0-229.2139.08197
279 [30]Bacon County2 - AA0-229.1449.46117
280 [18]First Presbyterian7 - A0-129.1344.98155
281 [53]Morrow4 - AAAAAA1-129.0640.54184
282 [47]Grady6 - AAAAA0-228.5145.14150
283 [48]North Springs6 - AAAAA1-128.338.35374
284 [49]Decatur6 - AAAAA1-128.1126.88288
285 [54]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA0-228.0151.00104
286 [46]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA1-127.0933.48242
287 [31]Northeast3 - AA0-226.8939.67196
288 [50]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA1-126.6725.35301
289 [31]Jackson County8 - AAA1-126.2027.55281
290 [19]Claxton3 - A2-026.1417.41344
291 [19]Athens Christian8 - A1-126.0830.70262
293 [33]South Atlanta6 - AA1-125.6121.20325
292 [32]Washington6 - AA0-225.6158.1368
294 [34]Coosa7 - AA0-225.5538.74200
295 [32]East Hall7 - AAA0-225.0043.18166
296 [55]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA0-124.9560.1861
297 [42]Madison County8 - AAAA0-224.9434.01238
298 [20]Holy Innocents5 - A1-124.8727.43283
299 [43]Chestatee7 - AAAA0-224.8145.95137
300 [20]McIntosh County Academy3 - A0-124.8043.67165
301 [33]Franklin County8 - AAA1-124.6927.35284
302 [35]Lamar County5 - AA1-124.6820.66329
303 [34]Tattnall County2 - AAA0-124.5727.87279
304 [44]Shaw1 - AAAA1-124.3726.74290
305 [47]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA0-223.8542.12177
306 [45]North Clayton4 - AAAA0-223.7944.99154
307 [36]Metter2 - AA1-023.697.21379
308 [35]Windsor Forest3 - AAA1-123.3726.25294
309 [46]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA1-123.1720.21332
310 [21]Whitefield Academy6 - A1-122.8020.92327
311 [37]Laney4 - AA0-122.5140.32185
312 [38]Harlem4 - AA0-122.2536.86216
313 [21]Bowdon6 - A0-221.9150.81106
314 [51]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA0-121.8229.67269
315 [47]Dougherty1 - AAAA0-221.7862.9545
316 [36]Worth County1 - AAA0-221.7335.52231
317 [22]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A0-221.5627.14286
318 [23]Brookstone4 - A0-121.28  
319 [39]Hephzibah4 - AA1-121.2523.89307
320 [37]Brantley County2 - AAA0-120.9841.88178
321 [48]Luella4 - AAAA0-120.3831.51254
322 [22]Atkinson County2 - A1-119.7522.41318
323 [40]McNair6 - AA1-019.6815.19353
324 [56]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA0-219.6439.94190
325 [23]Schley County4 - A1-119.5614.91356
326 [41]Therrell6 - AA1-119.4623.87309
327 [24]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-219.4442.86171
328 [38]Redan5 - AAA0-219.1427.51282
329 [25]Mount de Sales7 - A2-019.125.98381
330 [39]Beach3 - AAA0-119.0145.17149
331 [42]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA1-118.9918.18339
332 [52]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA0-118.8040.78182
333 [49]Henry County4 - AAAA0-118.7533.91241
334 [40]Lumpkin County7 - AAA1-118.7120.97326
335 [24]Wilcox County2 - A1-018.6410.25367
336 [41]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA1-117.9121.41323
337 [25]Johnson County3 - A1-017.695.50383
338 [43]Jordan5 - AA0-117.4136.51218
339 [26]Greene County7 - A0-117.3335.06233
340 [44]Butler4 - AA1-017.1412.46358
341 [26]Strong Rock Christian5 - A1-016.724.23385
342 [27]Miller County1 - A0-016.70  
343 [28]Jenkins County3 - A0-116.2521.64322
344 [27]Walker6 - A0-116.1524.35305
345 [42]Savannah3 - AAA0-215.8822.98316
346 [43]Towers5 - AAA0-215.1926.77289
347 [50]LaFayette6 - AAAA2-014.7310.19368
348 [29]Chattahoochee County1 - A1-114.6019.45335
349 [51]Cross Creek3 - AAAA1-114.199.51370
350 [30]Hawkinsville4 - A1-113.8419.57334
351 [45]Bryan County2 - AA0-113.7127.87278
352 [57]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA0-213.3830.44264
353 [46]Putnam County8 - AA1-113.3419.39336
354 [31]Seminole County1 - A0-113.2362.2148
355 [32]Montgomery County3 - A1-113.169.38373
356 [47]Banks County8 - AA0-213.0725.45298
357 [48]Model7 - AA0-212.9124.07306
358 [28]Pinecrest Academy6 - A0-112.8935.57230
359 [33]Hancock Central7 - A0-112.6237.43210
360 [49]Glenn Hills4 - AA0-112.4431.06257
361 [29]Christian Heritage6 - A2-011.97-2.39395
362 [34]Towns County8 - A1-011.52  
363 [30]North Cobb Christian6 - A1-011.137.27378
364 [50]Temple5 - AA0-110.9515.07354
365 [52]Denmark7 - AAAA1-010.02-10.86401
366 [35]Warren County7 - A1-09.551.72390
367 [44]Kendrick4 - AAA0-29.4731.01258
368 [45]Long County2 - AAA0-29.4445.60144
369 [46]Haralson County6 - AAA1-09.04-12.43402
370 [47]Islands3 - AAA0-18.9425.41299
371 [36]Gordon Lee6 - A1-18.8710.96364
372 [53]Chamblee5 - AAAAA0-28.5461.7950
373 [37]Wilkinson County7 - A0-18.5316.91349
374 [51]Monticello8 - AA0-18.0920.85328
375 [52]Armuchee7 - AA1-07.893.99386
376 [48]Fannin County7 - AAA1-17.471.32392
377 [49]Rutland4 - AAA0-17.3513.84357
378 [53]East Laurens3 - AA0-27.2336.92215
379 [53]Druid Hills4 - AAAA1-16.472.51389
380 [54]Social Circle8 - AA1-06.15-5.07398
381 [31]Riverside Military Academy8 - A1-15.914.35384
382 [50]Murray County6 - AAA0-25.7215.53352
383 [32]St. Francis6 - A0-15.549.40372
384 [38]Wheeler County3 - A0-15.1932.97246
385 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-24.7317.50343
386 [55]Dade County7 - AA0-24.0110.60365
387 [33]Landmark Christian5 - A1-13.871.66391
388 [39]Portal3 - A1-13.442.51388
389 [34]Lakeview Academy8 - A0-12.5014.99355
390 [40]Terrell County1 - A0-21.9924.69303
391 [56]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA0-10.8730.18265
392 [41]Lanier County2 - A0-1-0.9811.43360
393 [57]Josey4 - AA0-1-1.5712.46359
394 [54]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA1-1-1.879.65369
395 [42]Greenville4 - A0-1-2.0126.41292
396 [35]Georgia Military College7 - A2-0-2.32-26.38409
397 [51]East Jackson8 - AAA0-1-2.8716.98348
398 [43]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-1-2.9436.45219
399 [36]King's Ridge Christian6 - A0-1-3.267.64377
400 [44]Treutlen3 - A1-1-4.53-24.85408
401 [52]Stone Mountain5 - AAA0-2-5.0723.74310
402 [48]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA1-0-5.15-54.90413
403 [37]Providence Christian8 - A1-0-6.90-54.90412
404 [45]Calhoun County1 - A0-1-7.0917.83341
405 [46]Twiggs County7 - A0-1-7.4037.43211
406 [53]Groves3 - AAA0-1-8.9861.1355
407 [47]Central (Talbotton)4 - A0-1-9.1145.66141
408 [54]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA0-2-9.1316.41351
409 [58]Gordon Central7 - AA0-2-10.7010.50366
410 [54]Gilmer6 - AAAA0-2-12.095.74382
411 [55]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA0-1-12.5147.04131
412 [38]Pacelli4 - A1-1-15.81-7.52400
413 [48]Baconton Charter1 - A1-0-15.90-46.82411
414 [56]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA0-1-16.8739.92191
415 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-2-18.8717.40345
416 [49]Crawford County4 - A0-1-18.91-17.54406
417 [59]Oglethorpe County8 - AA0-2-19.72-2.09394
418 [50]Stewart County1 - A1-0-24.27-34.76410
419 [1]Glascock County7 - A†0-2-33.03-13.29403
420 [2]Pataula Charter1 - A†0-2-48.55-17.63407
421 [3]ACE Charter7 - A†1-1-53.15-2.80396
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-2-53.18-4.30397
† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA91.7080.68
28 - AAAAAAA84.5460.93
33 - AAAAAAA81.3969.63
46 - AAAAAAA81.1158.10
51 - AAAAAA79.0568.44
67 - AAAAAAA78.1157.35
74 - AAAAAAA77.7763.12
85 - AAAA76.5655.97
97 - AAAAA74.9849.36
108 - AAAAA73.5938.60
117 - AAAA72.3045.99
125 - AAAAAAA71.8455.95
136 - AAAAAA71.0551.68
144 - AAAAA70.5153.64
152 - AAAAAA69.3757.52
165 - AAA68.5645.95
171 - AAAAA68.5253.47
182 - AAAAAAA65.9654.95
195 - AAAAAA64.3647.04
202 - AAAA62.9950.86
211 - AA62.1648.68
222 - AAAAA61.8647.36
234 - AAAAAA61.7237.64
244 - AAA61.1735.36
253 - AAAA59.6141.83
263 - AAA59.4420.87
273 - AAAAA59.1743.24
288 - AAAAAA57.3143.56
297 - AAAAAA57.0940.46
306 - AA56.7028.67
314 - AAAA55.8631.81
325 - AA55.7134.50
336 - AAA55.6424.62
347 - AAA55.3827.91
358 - AAAA55.0742.11
363 - AA53.4837.58
371 - AAAA53.4138.41
382 - A52.5032.02
396 - AAAAA51.9236.40
405 - A51.9127.17
415 - AAAAA51.0035.12
428 - AAA49.6931.70
438 - A49.3625.02
 8-Div A - A48.7433.06
 8-Div B - A36.5317.40
443 - AAAAAA49.3038.21
456 - A48.5121.90
 6-Div A - A43.7024.78
 6-Div B - A41.7619.48
461 - AAA48.3138.04
472 - AAA48.0230.70
482 - AA47.3632.76
496 - AAAA46.4529.79
508 - AA45.8218.34
517 - AA45.8020.53
523 - A44.5221.95
 3-Div A - A43.3329.78
 3-Div B - A32.3614.01
534 - A44.0918.68
 4-Div A - A39.2311.61
 4-Div B - A37.9923.14
547 - A41.1520.76
 7-Div B - A36.1720.27
 7-Div A - A35.2721.36
554 - AA40.7319.70
561 - A30.576.31

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/18Rabun CountyBremen10 - 133.3558.3%0.455
08/17JeffersonOconee County13 - 202.6656.6%0.459
08/24Eagle's Landing ChristianPace Academy16 - 173.1657.8%0.461
08/17Houston CountyPerry17 - 232.3055.7%0.466
08/24East PauldingUpson-Lee16 - 211.5853.9%0.478
08/17TreutlenACE Charter35 - 2150.3599.4%0.480
08/17North ForsythCherokee16 - 181.1853.0%0.486
08/24NewtonEastside20 - 270.9652.4%0.486
08/24Screven CountySoutheast Bulloch21 - 280.6651.6%0.490
08/24Westminster (Atlanta)Greater Atlanta Christian22 - 210.1050.2%0.501
08/17Chapel HillNewnan10 - 70.1750.4%0.502
08/17RockmartCedartown20 - 140.3250.8%0.504
08/17MiltonArcher21 - 190.4551.1%0.505
08/17Lakeside (Atlanta)Decatur21 - 200.7151.8%0.507
08/24DiscoveryShiloh31 - 00.3450.9%0.508
  

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
95.1809/21GraysonColquitt County - 1.2953.2%
88.3210/26Colquitt CountyLowndes - 10.6274.3%
85.4409/14North GwinnettWalton - 3.9959.8%
84.1908/18Colquitt CountyMcEachern41 - 713.8279.9%
80.9608/31LowndesParkview - 7.0366.9%
80.3909/07North GwinnettNorcross - 11.8176.5%
79.9908/18WaltonMill Creek48 - 274.8261.8%
79.9310/05North GwinnettMill Creek - 12.2677.3%
79.8809/21BufordArcher - 10.8074.7%
78.8209/14Colquitt CountyWarner Robins - 17.9585.8%
78.2608/31NorcrossMill Creek - 2.1855.4%
78.1809/28ParkviewNorcross - 0.9152.3%
77.8010/19Colquitt CountyTift County - 18.8786.8%
77.5509/07Blessed TrinityBenedictine - 4.1060.1%
77.4110/12GraysonArcher - 20.3688.5%
  

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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