The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results:
- Grayson manhandled Tucker 48-7 to give the Tigers their second lopsided loss in as many games to a top ranked opponent (Tucker lost 40-14 to Buford last week) and their worst loss in over a quarter of a century. While the computer advances the Rams’ rating for the impressive win, it still doesn’t lose faith in Tucker, who actually moves up from #4 to #2 in Class AAAAAA. This is due in part to previous #2 Coffee’s uninspiring 23-6 win over Salem and Peach County’s win over previous #3 Northside (Warner Robins). Tucker now begins region play where the computer predicts a 73.1% chance of them running the table, placing them on the path to possibly meet the top seed from Region 1-AAAAAA in the semifinals, currently projected to be Class AAAAAA’s #1 rated Lee County.
- Although Pace Academy unexpectedly dumped Eagle’s Landing Christian 17-16, the Chargers remain dominate among the private schools in Class A, still holding a two touchdown lead over #2 Mount Paran Christian.
- There is a 70.0% chance that Colquitt County and Grayson will be undefeated in the state when they meet in September, the highest rated match up of the season by far. This does not account for Grayson’s game next week against Bergen Catholic out of New Jersey.
» Photos: Week 2 Georgia high school football
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 52.01%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 319 of 327 total games including 0 tie(s) (97.55%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.96 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
Home Advantage: 1.73
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
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