Here are all the teams with a greater than 1% chance of earning the at-large bid:

4 - AAAAAAA    Walton    21.4%

4 - AAAAAAA    Lassiter    19.2%

4 - AAAAAAA    Etowah    15.3%

1 - AAAAAAA    Tift County    11.9%

8 - AAAAAAA    South Gwinnett    7.7%

3 - AAAAAAA    North Paulding    7.4%

5 - AAAAAAA    North Forsyth    4.3%

8 - AAAAAAA    Newton    3.1%

4 - AAAAAAA    Cherokee    1.9%

4 - AAAAAAA    Woodstock    1.8%

5 - AAAAAAA    Milton    1.4%

5 - AAAAAAA    South Forsyth    1.2%

And each region's chances:

4 - AAAAAAA    59.6%

1 - AAAAAAA    13.0%

8 - AAAAAAA    10.8%

3 - AAAAAAA    7.6%

5 - AAAAAAA    7.2%

2 - AAAAAAA    0.9%

6 - AAAAAAA    0.5%

7 - AAAAAAA    0.4%

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 5.24%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,342 of 1,455 total games including 7 tie(s) (92.47%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.47 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

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Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.07

By Class

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.