Sports

Maxwell Quarterfinal Summary: No Cinderellas Remaining in AAAAAA

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 30, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- An impressive route of Archer propelled Mill Creek to the top spot in the state. Of the four remaining teams in AAAAAA, the Hawks are perhaps the most unlikely candidate to lead the pack. Each of the other three semifinalists, Colquitt County, Grayson, and Roswell, all have state titles within the last decade, but Mill Creek and it's only coach, Shannon Jarvis, entered this season with 60-58 career records and only one Power Five recruit on the roster (Louisville commit OG Robbie Bell). However, aside from a 20-17 overtime win against Peachtree Ridge to close the regular season, the 23-0 dismantling of AJC preseason #1 Archer has been their closest game.

- For the first time in 55 years the four semifinal teams in the highest class are undefeated, which is a good omen for the head coaches.  The four from 1960, Frank Inman at Richmond Academy, Calvin Ramsey at Avondale, Frank Jernigan at North Fulton, and a guy named Wright Bazemore at Valdosta, had combined career records of 545-111-25 (81.3%) and 16 state titles.  Two have stadiums named after them (Bazemore and Inman) and two are inducted into the Georgia Sports Hall of Fame (Bazemore and Ramsey).

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,023 of 2,220 total games including 2 tie(s) (91.17%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.04 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.68

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Mill Creek 13-0 96.39 1 Northgate 12-1 73.92
2 Colquitt County 13-0 95.35 2 Allatoona 12-1 72.14
3 Grayson 13-0 94.60 3 Glynn Academy 11-2 70.98
4 Roswell 13-0 90.85 4 Ware County 11-2 70.72
5 Archer 11-2 89.83 5 Stockbridge 12-1 69.64
6 McEachern 10-2 82.17 6 Houston County 11-2 68.37
7 Peachtree Ridge 8-4 80.08 7 Mays 10-2 68.29
8 Camden County 10-2 79.64 8 Stephenson 9-2 67.29
9 Lowndes 6-5 71.44 9 Starr's Mill 10-2 65.24
10 Central Gwinnett 7-5 70.79 10 Coffee 10-2 65.17
11 Valdosta 8-4 70.14 11 Lanier 11-1 63.98
12 Walton 9-2 69.65 12 Drew 9-4 62.73
13 South Forsyth 11-2 69.21 13 Northside (Warner Robins) 9-2 62.72
14 Collins Hill 7-6 68.85 14 Jones County 9-2 62.40
15 Westlake 10-3 68.66 15 Dalton 9-3 62.25
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Woodward Academy 13-0 77.99 1 Blessed Trinity 12-0-1 69.92
2 Buford 12-1 76.82 2 Calhoun 13-0 66.10
3 Cartersville 13-0 73.09 3 Cedar Grove 11-1-1 63.20
4 Bainbridge 13-0 69.30 4 Jefferson 10-2 57.25
5 Sandy Creek 9-3 64.47 5 Elbert County 10-3 51.87
6 St. Pius X 10-3 61.66 6 Westminster (Atlanta) 9-4 49.64
7 Marist 10-3 60.33 7 Peach County 9-3 47.81
8 Thomson 11-2 59.23 8 Oconee County 9-3 46.25
9 Worth County 8-4 58.05 9 Dodge County 11-1 45.40
10 Jonesboro 11-2 57.95 10 Westside (Macon) 9-4 44.74
11 Spalding 10-2 55.84 11 Callaway 10-2 44.26
12 Mary Persons 11-1 54.68 12 Adairsville 11-2 44.14
13 Liberty County 8-4 52.18 13 Hart County 7-4 43.02
14 Carrollton 6-6 51.84 14 Jackson 9-3 42.76
15 Burke County 7-4 49.55 15 Spencer 8-4 40.80
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 12-1 64.09 1 Prince Avenue Christian 12-0 63.16
2 Fitzgerald 12-1 61.95 2 Eagle's Landing Christian 9-3 57.08
3 Benedictine 12-1 58.64 3 Aquinas 11-1 49.66
4 Brooks County 10-3 52.09 4 Clinch County 11-1 45.63
5 Pace Academy 11-2 51.72 5 Irwin County 9-2-1 42.79
6 Jefferson County 11-2 51.45 6 Mount Paran Christian 10-2 42.74
7 Rabun County 11-2 50.34 7 Stratford Academy 9-3 41.28
8 Wesleyan 9-3 50.11 8 Emanuel County Institute 11-1 41.18
9 Lovett 6-6 48.22 9 Commerce 9-3 39.57
10 Macon County 10-3 42.49 10 Charlton County 7-3 36.66
11 Darlington 10-1 41.03 11 Pinecrest Academy 10-2 36.16
12 Early County 7-4-1 40.97 12 Trion 8-4 36.12
13 Screven County 10-2 40.93 13 Savannah Christian 9-3 34.88
14 Hapeville 6-4 38.64 14 Turner County 8-3 34.36
15 Model 9-2 36.96 15 Landmark Christian 7-4 32.72

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 13-0 96.39 59.88 20
2 [2] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 13-0 95.35 61.55 16
3 [3] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 13-0 94.60 61.30 17
4 [4] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 13-0 90.85 57.72 23
5 [5] Archer 8-AAAAAA 11-2 89.83 66.84 6
6 [6] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 10-2 82.17 59.02 21
7 [7] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 8-4 80.08 65.06 10
8 [8] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 10-2 79.64 64.42 11
9 [1] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 13-0 77.99 42.39 118
10 [2] Buford 8-AAAA 12-1 76.82 31.25 222
11 [1] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 12-1 73.92 44.27 101
12 [3] Cartersville 7-AAAA 13-0 73.09 35.22 188
13 [2] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 12-1 72.14 46.89 76
14 [9] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-5 71.44 70.41 1
15 [3] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 11-2 70.98 54.81 33
16 [10] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 7-5 70.79 66.08 8
17 [4] Ware County 3-AAAAA 11-2 70.72 50.69 50
18 [11] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 8-4 70.14 60.79 19
19 [1] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 12-0-1 69.92 40.14 138
20 [12] Walton 5-AAAAAA 9-2 69.65 53.48 37
21 [5] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 12-1 69.64 43.06 112
22 [4] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 13-0 69.30 44.02 104
23 [13] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 11-2 69.21 48.99 59
24 [14] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 7-6 68.85 63.54 14
25 [15] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 10-3 68.66 46.58 80
26 [6] Houston County 2-AAAAA 11-2 68.37 42.08 121
27 [7] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 10-2 68.29 46.18 83
28 [8] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 9-2 67.29 36.97 168
29 [16] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 7-4 67.24 61.14 18
30 [17] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-5 67.12 69.06 3
31 [18] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 8-3 66.92 54.01 34
32 [2] Calhoun 6-AAA 13-0 66.10 24.63 286
33 [19] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-4 65.76 55.57 28
34 [20] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 6-5 65.28 66.65 7
35 [9] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 10-2 65.24 40.57 132
36 [10] Coffee 3-AAAAA 10-2 65.17 44.90 95
37 [5] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 9-3 64.47 44.84 96
38 [21] Newton 2-AAAAAA 9-3 64.43 47.40 73
39 [1] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 12-1 64.09 38.93 152
40 [11] Lanier 8-AAAAA 11-1 63.98 42.62 115
41 [3] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 11-1-1 63.20 29.81 240
42 [1] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 12-0 63.16 16.08 363
43 [12] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 9-4 62.73 47.78 69
44 [13] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 9-2 62.72 40.99 129
45 [14] Jones County 2-AAAAA 9-2 62.40 36.63 175
46 [15] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 9-3 62.25 49.72 53
47 [2] Fitzgerald 1-AA 12-1 61.95 35.99 181
48 [22] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 4-6 61.71 68.76 4
49 [6] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 10-3 61.66 40.44 134
50 [23] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 9-3 60.59 48.78 60
51 [16] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 8-4 60.58 51.23 48
52 [7] Marist 6-AAAA 10-3 60.33 38.93 151
53 [24] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 5-5 60.18 64.12 12
54 [17] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 9-4 59.69 49.90 52
55 [18] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 59.30 45.15 94
56 [25] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 8-4 59.28 41.01 127
57 [8] Thomson 3-AAAA 11-2 59.23 39.54 144
58 [19] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 7-3 58.96 49.58 55
59 [3] Benedictine 2-AA 12-1 58.64 31.19 224
60 [9] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 8-4 58.05 48.72 61
61 [26] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 7-4 58.01 49.28 57
62 [20] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 57.99 53.51 36
63 [10] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 11-2 57.95 43.08 111
64 [27] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 6-5 57.81 55.44 30
65 [28] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 57.40 51.28 47
66 [4] Jefferson 8-AAA 10-2 57.25 39.99 139
67 [29] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 5-6 57.19 55.52 29
68 [2] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 9-3 57.08 29.40 246
69 [30] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 57.00 66.03 9
70 [31] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 8-3 56.98 47.81 68
71 [21] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 9-3 56.89 45.25 90
72 [22] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 8-3 56.45 46.22 82
73 [11] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 10-2 55.84 35.03 190
74 [32] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 5-5 54.93 56.60 26
75 [12] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 11-1 54.68 39.83 140
76 [23] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 7-4 54.54 47.88 67
77 [33] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 5-6 54.51 55.04 31
78 [34] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 8-3 54.17 42.10 120
79 [24] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 53.69 36.22 179
80 [25] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 8-4 53.56 44.20 102
81 [35] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-8 53.17 67.75 5
82 [26] Alexander 5-AAAAA 8-3 52.96 43.59 109
83 [36] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 5-6 52.78 53.90 35
84 [13] Liberty County 3-AAAA 8-4 52.18 43.83 107
85 [4] Brooks County 1-AA 10-3 52.09 32.99 204
86 [5] Elbert County 8-AAA 10-3 51.87 40.66 130
87 [14] Carrollton 5-AAAA 6-6 51.84 47.48 72
88 [5] Pace Academy 6-AA 11-2 51.72 34.17 197
89 [27] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 7-4 51.65 40.59 131
90 [28] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 51.57 37.03 166
91 [29] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 51.52 51.12 49
92 [6] Jefferson County 3-AA 11-2 51.45 29.61 244
93 [37] Milton 5-AAAAAA 4-6 51.38 55.76 27
94 [30] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 9-2 51.32 39.62 143
95 [31] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 50.86 39.78 141
96 [38] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 50.77 61.92 15
97 [39] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 3-8 50.72 63.93 13
98 [7] Rabun County 8-AA 11-2 50.34 23.92 297
99 [40] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 50.25 48.32 63
100 [41] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 5-6 50.16 52.12 40
101 [8] Wesleyan 6-AA 9-3 50.11 35.40 187
102 [3] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 11-1 49.66 18.03 346
103 [32] Loganville 8-AAAAA 8-3 49.66 36.70 173
104 [6] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 9-4 49.64 35.68 186
105 [15] Burke County 3-AAAA 7-4 49.55 44.75 97
106 [33] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 7-3 49.18 42.61 116
107 [16] West Laurens 2-AAAA 8-4 48.85 39.13 149
108 [17] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 9-2 48.64 30.60 229
109 [34] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 7-4 48.62 41.07 125
110 [35] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 48.45 52.83 39
111 [9] Lovett 6-AA 6-6 48.22 45.19 92
112 [7] Peach County 2-AAA 9-3 47.81 31.39 219
113 [36] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 47.53 41.11 124
114 [42] Northview 6-AAAAAA 6-5 47.05 45.82 86
115 [18] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-5 46.68 44.29 100
116 [43] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 46.56 48.44 62
117 [44] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-6 46.53 51.74 45
118 [37] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 46.42 43.87 106
119 [19] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 8-3 46.39 35.10 189
120 [8] Oconee County 8-AAA 9-3 46.25 30.36 232
121 [20] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-6 45.81 48.25 65
122 [4] Clinch County 2-A 11-1 45.63 18.79 338
123 [9] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 11-1 45.40 22.86 305
124 [45] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 45.25 56.66 25
125 [46] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-6 44.93 51.80 44
126 [47] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 5-5 44.79 45.86 84
127 [10] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 9-4 44.74 35.00 192
128 [11] Callaway 5-AAA 10-2 44.26 28.89 251
129 [12] Adairsville 6-AAA 11-2 44.14 20.43 329
130 [21] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 43.65 38.26 155
131 [22] Wayne County 3-AAAA 3-8 43.08 51.82 43
132 [13] Hart County 8-AAA 7-4 43.02 37.00 167
133 [38] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 6-4 42.90 34.51 196
134 [39] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 5-5 42.84 43.41 110
135 [5] Irwin County 2-A 9-2-1 42.79 25.93 268
136 [14] Jackson 2-AAA 9-3 42.76 28.64 255
137 [6] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 10-2 42.74 26.16 266
138 [40] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 6-5 42.57 42.63 114
139 [10] Macon County 4-AA 10-3 42.49 29.29 247
140 [23] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 42.35 36.69 174
141 [24] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 7-3 42.21 30.55 230
142 [25] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 6-5 42.19 36.84 171
143 [26] Grady 6-AAAA 7-5 41.53 36.48 177
144 [41] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 3-7 41.39 53.23 38
145 [7] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 9-3 41.28 23.38 301
146 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 11-1 41.18 13.56 379
147 [11] Darlington 7-AA 10-1 41.03 21.72 318
148 [42] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 5-5 41.02 39.03 150
149 [12] Early County 1-AA 7-4-1 40.97 30.20 236
150 [13] Screven County 3-AA 10-2 40.93 21.27 324
151 [27] Stephens County 8-AAAA 8-3 40.88 30.18 238
152 [28] Veterans 2-AAAA 4-7 40.86 46.80 78
153 [15] Spencer 2-AAA 8-4 40.80 33.31 201
154 [43] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 6-4 40.76 37.45 160
155 [44] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 40.46 40.19 137
156 [29] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 39.89 51.92 42
157 [9] Commerce 8-A 9-3 39.57 21.49 320
158 [16] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 9-2 39.55 24.84 283
159 [30] Howard 2-AAAA 6-4 39.41 35.93 182
160 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 4-6 38.75 45.86 85
161 [14] Hapeville 6-AA 6-4 38.64 27.18 263
162 [45] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 5-5 38.25 37.12 165
163 [17] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 6-4 37.94 29.63 243
164 [46] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 37.89 33.10 202
165 [18] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 37.88 29.93 239
166 [31] North Hall 8-AAAA 6-5 37.41 34.01 198
167 [47] Columbus 1-AAAAA 7-4 37.33 33.05 203
168 [48] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 4-6 37.30 39.38 148
169 [32] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 37.24 49.56 56
170 [49] Salem 8-AAAAA 5-5 37.04 35.87 184
171 [15] Model 7-AA 9-2 36.96 24.51 287
172 [16] Vidalia 2-AA 8-4 36.81 24.37 290
173 [17] Heard County 5-AA 8-4 36.67 24.90 280
174 [10] Charlton County 2-A 7-3 36.66 24.50 288
175 [19] Laney 3-AAA 8-3 36.44 14.42 374
176 [50] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 36.38 43.95 105
177 [51] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 36.28 39.54 145
178 [11] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 10-2 36.16 21.46 323
179 [12] Trion 6-Div A-A 8-4 36.12 22.52 309
180 [49] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-7 36.08 45.58 88
181 [52] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 3-7 36.06 49.98 51
182 [50] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 3-7 35.98 57.51 24
183 [53] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 35.90 30.38 231
184 [33] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 35.80 41.02 126
185 [34] Columbia 6-AAAA 5-6 35.65 37.81 157
186 [54] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 35.56 42.47 117
187 [35] Pickens 7-AAAA 8-3 35.16 25.13 278
188 [55] Shaw 1-AAAAA 5-6 35.00 37.79 158
189 [13] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 9-3 34.88 17.81 351
190 [56] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-8 34.44 48.23 66
191 [20] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 34.37 29.10 249
192 [14] Turner County 2-A 8-3 34.36 19.96 331
193 [21] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 7-4 34.15 23.86 298
194 [57] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-8 34.10 52.09 41
195 [58] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 33.96 36.54 176
196 [18] Lamar County 4-AA 7-4 33.88 26.19 265
197 [59] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-8 33.88 46.96 75
198 [51] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-8 33.73 46.47 81
199 [52] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 4-6 33.71 39.40 147
200 [22] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 33.66 28.75 253
201 [36] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 7-4 33.19 25.39 273
202 [60] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 33.08 37.15 164
203 [53] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-8 33.00 48.29 64
204 [37] Lithonia 6-AAAA 6-4 32.72 28.78 252
205 [15] Landmark Christian 5-A 7-4 32.72 21.79 316
206 [54] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 2-8 32.69 45.22 91
207 [38] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 32.20 40.51 133
208 [16] Marion County 4-A 10-2 32.15 12.19 386
209 [17] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 8-4 32.13 21.09 325
210 [18] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 9-2 32.13 10.37 397
211 [19] Athens Academy 8-A 9-2 32.11 8.80 402
212 [23] Sonoraville 6-AAA 8-4 32.02 18.03 347
213 [24] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 31.88 35.70 185
214 [55] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-9 31.76 46.88 77
215 [20] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 6-6 31.72 31.40 217
216 [39] Perry 2-AAAA 2-8 31.67 44.73 98
217 [61] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-7 31.56 43.69 108
218 [25] Pepperell 5-AAA 7-4 31.52 24.85 282
219 [62] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 5-5 31.51 35.87 183
220 [19] Chattooga 7-AA 7-4 31.18 25.19 277
221 [21] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 9-2 31.16 15.23 368
222 [26] Dawson County 7-AAA 9-4 31.08 22.79 306
223 [40] North Oconee 8-AAAA 5-6 31.05 36.17 180
224 [41] Baldwin 2-AAAA 4-6 30.66 36.88 170
225 [63] Evans 2-AAAAA 4-6 30.51 33.79 199
226 [27] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 30.50 30.18 237
227 [42] Fayette County 5-AAAA 3-8 30.50 49.01 58
228 [20] Putnam County 4-AA 7-4 30.34 22.47 310
229 [28] Jackson County 8-AAA 4-6 30.32 35.02 191
230 [29] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 30.32 24.23 292
231 [30] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 29.73 24.89 281
232 [21] Dublin 3-AA 6-4 29.31 23.55 300
233 [22] Manchester 5-AA 8-4 29.22 19.47 336
234 [56] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-9 29.11 47.22 74
235 [64] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 28.76 40.33 136
236 [23] Dade County 7-AA 6-5 28.69 29.15 248
237 [22] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 6-5 28.47 27.57 260
238 [43] Redan 6-AAAA 4-6 28.40 30.32 234
239 [65] Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-8 28.37 37.24 162
240 [66] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 28.21 37.55 159
241 [57] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-9 28.04 57.79 22
242 [24] Swainsboro 3-AA 5-6 27.90 32.58 208
243 [44] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-7 27.41 31.37 220
244 [45] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 27.40 31.06 226
245 [25] Union County 8-AA 9-2 27.17 10.96 392
246 [31] Washington County 3-AAA 5-6 27.05 25.04 279
247 [67] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 2-8 26.77 42.21 119
248 [26] Metter 3-AA 6-5 25.71 27.23 262
249 [32] East Hall 7-AAA 6-5 25.51 24.16 293
250 [46] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 5-5 25.25 28.25 257
251 [33] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 6-4 25.24 15.72 365
252 [34] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 6-5 24.72 25.93 269
253 [27] Bowdon 5-AA 6-6 24.50 25.45 272
254 [35] Franklin County 7-AAA 6-5 23.88 23.21 303
255 [68] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 23.83 44.32 99
256 [23] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 6-5 23.74 19.13 337
257 [47] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 23.72 28.39 256
258 [48] Troup 5-AAAA 1-9 23.69 47.49 71
259 [69] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 23.54 51.67 46
260 [28] Pelham 1-AA 6-5 23.34 26.83 264
261 [49] White County 8-AAAA 3-7 23.23 31.63 214
262 [70] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 22.88 29.58 245
263 [29] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-8 22.86 39.68 142
264 [36] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 22.51 32.57 209
265 [58] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 22.40 69.15 2
266 [30] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 4-7 22.36 31.17 225
267 [37] Ringgold 6-AAA 6-5 21.99 17.74 352
268 [31] Bacon County 2-AA 5-5 21.80 22.32 312
269 [24] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 5-5 21.70 16.30 361
270 [38] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 21.57 31.88 212
271 [59] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 4-7 21.41 30.68 228
272 [25] Athens Christian 8-A 6-5 21.33 18.17 344
273 [26] Telfair County 2-A 5-6 20.66 21.47 322
274 [27] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 6-5 20.44 18.35 341
275 [39] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 20.40 19.93 332
276 [32] Bryan County 2-AA 5-6 20.40 23.24 302
277 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 20.37 45.17 93
278 [40] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 20.16 31.57 215
279 [28] Brookstone 4-A 6-5 19.93 16.59 360
280 [60] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-10 19.89 54.94 32
281 [29] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 7-5 19.85 16.79 356
282 [41] West Hall 7-AAA 5-6 19.74 22.42 311
283 [50] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 4-6 19.71 23.96 296
284 [61] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 2-8 19.64 45.32 89
285 [33] Gordon Lee 7-AA 4-6 19.54 21.88 315
286 [34] Greene County 8-AA 5-6 19.46 23.13 304
287 [30] Dooly County 4-A 7-4 19.23 12.31 385
288 [35] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 19.22 42.02 122
289 [42] Cedartown 5-AAA 2-9 19.10 31.40 218
290 [43] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 19.01 32.28 210
291 [51] Gilmer 7-AAAA 4-6 18.49 25.60 271
292 [52] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 18.22 17.14 354
293 [44] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 18.17 17.96 349
294 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 3-7 17.54 33.67 200
295 [62] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 3-6 17.33 27.60 259
296 [31] Pacelli 4-A 7-4 17.23 11.03 391
297 [36] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 4-7 17.13 25.76 270
298 [54] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-5 17.11 31.29 221
299 [45] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 17.06 18.73 339
300 [32] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 4-7 17.01 22.64 307
301 [37] Berrien 1-AA 2-8 16.78 34.78 195
302 [55] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-8 16.42 47.50 70
303 [38] Bremen 5-AA 4-7 15.91 25.25 275
304 [46] Kendrick 2-AAA 3-7 15.62 31.94 211
305 [47] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 15.51 31.22 223
306 [72] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-9 15.51 38.15 156
307 [39] Jeff Davis 2-AA 5-5 15.30 14.59 372
308 [63] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-8 15.28 37.19 163
309 [73] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-10 14.77 45.73 87
310 [56] Chamblee 6-AAAA 2-8 14.60 32.77 206
311 [40] Thomasville 1-AA 1-8 14.33 40.33 135
312 [74] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 14.28 41.00 128
313 [57] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 14.17 30.27 235
314 [64] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-9 14.09 41.33 123
315 [33] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 6-4 13.61 10.92 393
316 [75] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 2-8 13.53 37.38 161
317 [41] Harlem 3-AA 3-7 13.51 22.56 308
318 [34] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 13.08 16.90 355
319 [76] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 13.07 36.90 169
320 [48] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 12.67 15.32 367
321 [35] Walker 6-Div A-A 4-6 12.27 24.64 285
322 [42] Northeast 4-AA 2-9 11.81 28.71 254
323 [43] Seminole County 1-AA 3-7 11.77 19.66 335
324 [77] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 11.67 38.83 153
325 [44] Long County 2-AA 3-7 11.44 20.80 326
326 [45] Crawford County 4-AA† 8-2 11.42 -4.01 416
327 [36] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-7 11.22 20.42 330
328 [37] Randolph-Clay 1-A 7-4 11.22 5.55 409
329 [38] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 5-5 11.16 12.41 384
330 [78] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 11.12 36.82 172
331 [49] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 10.92 24.02 294
332 [79] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 10.64 27.51 261
333 [50] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-8 10.38 21.57 319
334 [80] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 10.30 49.65 54
335 [81] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-9 10.24 34.81 194
336 [51] Rockmart 5-AAA 2-8 9.77 23.81 299
337 [46] Monticello 4-AA 1-9 9.62 25.97 267
338 [52] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 9.60 25.20 276
339 [39] Terrell County 1-A 5-5 9.41 10.73 394
340 [40] Hawkinsville 4-A 5-5 9.34 8.32 405
341 [53] Rutland 2-AAA 1-9 9.19 32.83 205
342 [47] East Laurens 3-AA 4-6 9.16 19.79 333
343 [54] Josey 3-AAA 6-5 8.80 9.96 398
344 [41] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-6 8.55 17.88 350
345 [55] North Murray 6-AAA 4-6 8.46 16.60 359
346 [42] Atkinson County 2-A 3-7 8.39 21.49 321
347 [56] Murray County 6-AAA 4-6 8.33 15.53 366
348 [48] Coosa 7-AA 1-9 8.02 30.78 227
349 [57] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 7.04 21.75 317
350 [43] Mitchell County 1-A 4-6 6.94 10.53 396
351 [58] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 6.78 18.53 340
352 [49] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 6.05 34.84 193
353 [44] Miller County 1-A 5-5 5.76 8.45 404
354 [59] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 1-9 5.56 36.44 178
355 [45] Taylor County 4-A 3-7 5.40 12.08 387
356 [58] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 5.34 24.33 291
357 [50] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-9 5.25 27.95 258
358 [46] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-7 5.20 15.03 370
359 [47] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 5.12 18.30 342
360 [59] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-9 4.67 22.05 314
361 [82] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 4.35 44.07 103
362 [51] Social Circle 8-AA 4-6 4.29 12.45 383
363 [48] Greenville 4-A 4-6 4.28 11.57 389
364 [49] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 4.02 12.62 382
365 [52] Armuchee 7-AA 2-8 3.85 24.40 289
366 [53] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-7 3.41 11.52 390
367 [50] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 6-4 3.32 -2.01 415
368 [60] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 7-3 3.00 -4.73 417
369 [61] Madison County 8-AAAA 1-9 2.96 28.98 250
370 [54] Temple 5-AA 3-7 2.74 14.08 376
371 [51] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 4-6 2.19 5.58 408
372 [52] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 4-6 1.85 6.77 407
373 [53] Warren County 7-Div B-A 3-7 1.46 15.14 369
374 [54] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-6 1.40 4.82 411
375 [83] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-10 1.24 42.77 113
376 [55] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-8 1.24 15.91 364
377 [60] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 1.18 20.61 327
378 [56] Portal 3-Div A-A 2-8 1.14 14.12 375
379 [62] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-9 1.07 32.59 207
380 [57] Wilcox County 2-A 2-8 0.70 20.57 328
381 [61] Butler 3-AAA 4-7 0.60 11.70 388
382 [62] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 0.48 31.84 213
383 [58] Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-8 -1.54 17.17 353
384 [59] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 -2.24 23.97 295
385 [63] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-9 -2.87 25.37 274
386 [60] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 3-7 -3.23 9.71 399
387 [55] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-9 -4.09 29.75 241
388 [64] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-10 -4.89 39.47 146
389 [61] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-8 -5.11 13.56 378
390 [62] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-7 -5.55 8.72 403
391 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -5.56 38.51 154
392 [63] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-8 -6.02 18.05 345
393 [63] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -6.25 18.00 348
394 [84] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 1-8 -6.26 29.73 242
395 [64] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 -6.41 22.30 313
396 [64] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -6.50 19.69 334
397 [66] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-9 -7.03 31.54 216
398 [85] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 -7.04 46.62 79
399 [65] Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-7 -7.27 3.77 412
400 [56] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-9 -9.02 16.72 358
401 [66] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 2-8 -9.03 14.49 373
402 [67] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-10 -9.90 30.35 233
403 [65] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-9 -11.87 9.36 401
404 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -12.12 16.22 362
405 [66] Baconton 1-A 3-7 -13.48 -0.68 414
406 [67] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-9 -15.50 13.40 380
407 [68] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -17.02 14.66 371
408 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-10 -17.43 12.94 381
409 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-10 -17.84 16.72 357
410 [70] Calhoun County 1-A 0-10 -20.30 10.65 395
411 [68] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-10 -22.27 24.77 284
412 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -24.63 13.67 377
413 [71] Schley County 4-A 0-10 -24.76 9.56 400
414 [72] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -29.39 1.09 413
415 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-5 -32.05 7.82 406
416 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-10 -32.31 18.24 343
417 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -42.13 5.43 410
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 90.89 72.60
2 8 - AAAAAA 86.95 65.34
3 7 - AAAAAA 84.59 61.32
4 5 - AAAAAA 76.40 55.30
5 3 - AAAAA 71.48 51.12
6 5 - AAAA 70.47 42.83
7 4 - AAAAAA 69.68 52.85
8 4 - AAAAA 67.64 43.91
4 - Div A - AAAAA 70.12 43.52
4 - Div B - AAAAA 64.61 44.18
9 3 - AAAAAA 65.02 44.60
10 5 - AAAAA 64.21 44.77
11 6 - AAAAAA 63.46 45.16
12 2 - AAAAAA 62.95 37.70
13 2 - AAAAA 62.78 37.45
14 7 - AAAAA 62.77 43.58
7 - Div A - AAAAA 65.84 47.17
7 - Div B - AAAAA 59.14 40.43
15 6 - AAAAA 61.15 39.49
6 - Div B - AAAAA 68.12 47.75
6 - Div A - AAAAA 52.36 33.95
16 3 - AAAA 60.19 45.54
17 1 - AAAA 60.18 40.33
1 - Div B - AAAA 65.76 42.06
1 - Div A - AAAA 55.23 39.06
18 6 - AA 59.61 38.90
19 8 - AAAAA 57.81 38.45
20 8 - AAA 57.80 39.53
21 2 - AAAA 57.58 41.78
22 1 - AA 54.78 29.72
23 6 - AAAA 54.35 34.80
24 4 - AAAA 54.10 32.91
4 - Div B - AAAA 57.56 33.73
4 - Div A - AAAA 50.78 32.29
25 4 - AAA 53.04 26.38
4 - Div B - AAA 58.68 33.75
4 - Div A - AAA 44.04 19.50
26 1 - AAAAA 52.21 35.70
27 2 - AAA 50.04 31.59
28 8 - AAAA 48.57 26.35
29 7 - AAAA 48.00 25.63
30 3 - AA 46.99 27.94
31 5 - A 45.99 14.42
32 2 - A 45.43 24.07
33 5 - AAA 44.54 24.59
34 6 - AAA 43.97 12.37
35 2 - AA 42.91 21.03
36 7 - AA 42.67 24.76
37 8 - A 42.46 15.42
38 1 - AAA 41.26 21.90
1 - Div A - AAA 46.15 29.32
1 - Div B - AAA 32.51 10.15
39 6 - A 40.77 23.27
6 - Div A - A 45.15 31.66
6 - Div B - A 34.80 14.73
40 4 - AA 39.72 21.97
41 7 - A 37.13 16.68
7 - Div B - A 38.10 15.10
7 - Div A - A 36.43 17.55
42 5 - AA 37.03 18.86
43 8 - AA 36.92 13.82
44 7 - AAA 35.80 20.83
45 3 - A 33.29 10.12
3 - Div B - A 33.79 9.80
3 - Div A - A 32.91 10.35
46 3 - AAA 28.45 3.86
47 4 - A 28.10 9.72
48 1 - A 15.52 0.93

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/25 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 37.04 97.6% 0.066
09/04 Central Gwinnett Mundy's Mill 20 - 35 22.70 90.6% 0.128
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 21.23 89.3% 0.168
09/04 Bryan County Claxton 7 - 13 20.25 88.3% 0.183
10/16 Gainesville Clarke Central 7 - 44 14.59 81.1% 0.198
10/23 B.E.S.T. Academy K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 26 - 27 18.49 86.4% 0.230
09/04 Collins Hill South Gwinnett 17 - 20 17.36 85.0% 0.235
09/25 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 16.07 83.3% 0.235
10/09 First Presbyterian Mount de Sales 21 - 22 18.04 85.9% 0.236
08/28 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 21 - 30 15.29 82.2% 0.238
09/18 Pacelli Greenville 12 - 22 14.63 81.2% 0.245
09/04 Westminster (Atlanta) Laney 3 - 10 14.88 81.6% 0.253
09/18 Dalton Cass 8 - 23 13.04 78.6% 0.255
09/11 Jonesboro Eagle's Landing 7 - 17 13.93 80.1% 0.256
10/16 Dawson County Fannin County 15 - 31 12.34 77.5% 0.264

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
95.69 120/4 Mill Creek Colquitt County - 2.71 56.7%
92.00 12/04 Grayson Roswell - 5.42 63.2%
91.46 11/27 Mill Creek Archer 23 - 0 8.24 69.5%
91.19 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 6.45 65.6%
85.11 11/20 Archer McEachern 24 - 21 5.98 64.5%
83.04 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County 33 - 14 14.03 80.3%
81.89 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 11.42 75.8%
81.43 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge 20 - 17 17.98 85.8%
81.42 11/20 Roswell Camden County 34 - 15 12.89 78.4%
81.12 09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 - 9 0.40 51.0%
78.29 09/04 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 7.02 66.9%
77.40 12/04 Buford Woodward Academy - 0.51 51.3%
74.12 09/04 Camden County Glynn Academy 24 - 17 6.99 66.8%
73.96 10/02 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 - 20 22.23 90.2%
73.40 10/02 Camden County Valdosta 31 - 10 7.83 68.6%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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