The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- An impressive route of Archer propelled Mill Creek to the top spot in the state. Of the four remaining teams in AAAAAA, the Hawks are perhaps the most unlikely candidate to lead the pack. Each of the other three semifinalists, Colquitt County, Grayson, and Roswell, all have state titles within the last decade, but Mill Creek and it's only coach, Shannon Jarvis, entered this season with 60-58 career records and only one Power Five recruit on the roster (Louisville commit OG Robbie Bell). However, aside from a 20-17 overtime win against Peachtree Ridge to close the regular season, the 23-0 dismantling of AJC preseason #1 Archer has been their closest game.

- For the first time in 55 years the four semifinal teams in the highest class are undefeated, which is a good omen for the head coaches.  The four from 1960, Frank Inman at Richmond Academy, Calvin Ramsey at Avondale, Frank Jernigan at North Fulton, and a guy named Wright Bazemore at Valdosta, had combined career records of 545-111-25 (81.3%) and 16 state titles.  Two have stadiums named after them (Bazemore and Inman) and two are inducted into the Georgia Sports Hall of Fame (Bazemore and Ramsey).

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.10%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,023 of 2,220 total games including 2 tie(s) (91.17%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.04 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

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Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.68

By Class

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.