Lower-class teams present big challenges to the big boys

There are 31 games involve teams in the highest classification this week. None is a region game, but each still matters in the projection a team’s fortunes.

There are three kinds of games this week in the highest classification - games in class, games out of class, games out of state. Let’s take a closer look at each using the computer Maxwell Ratings’ projected margins of victory.

Games against out-of-class opponents: If you're going to make a serious run at the title in the high class, you ought to beat teams from lower classes. Not always easy to do, though. Highly ranked smaller schools Blessed Trinity and Carrollton are favored to beat pretty good bigger schools this week. South Forsyth and East Coweta are on alert. The Tift County-Valdosta game will be big. Tift, favored by one point, was expected to make a run at the Region 1 title this season. An 0-2 start wouldn't eliminate those opportunities, but the Blue Devils would be disappointed to lose to Valdosta, the No. 4 team in AAAAAA. That's perhaps the best game this week involving a Class AAAAAAA team this week. Another good one is Milton vs. Alpharetta. That game marks the first time that two north Fulton County teams have played each other while ranked. Milton is in the highest class, Alpharetta one below. And also note that Berkmar is a 40-point favorite to end its 47-game losing streak this week. The Patriots will face hapless Cross Keys, and you can't blame them for them. Lowndes, on the other hand, probably shouldn't be playing Chamblee.

Berkmar vs Cross Keys -40

Blessed Trinity vs. South Forsyth -7

Carrollton vs East Coweta -8

Gainesville vs. North Forsyth -3

Grayson vs Tucker -20

Lambert vs Chattahoochee -14

Lanier at Central Gwinnett -3

Lassiter vs Pope -22

Lowndes vs Chamblee -42

Meadowcreek vs Duluth -26

Mill Creek vs Dacula -19

Milton at Alpharetta -15

Mountain View vs Hughes -10

Newton vs Eastside -15

North Paulding at South Paulding -33

Northview vs. Lakeside, Atlanta -6

Rockdale County at Alcovy -5

Tift County vs Valdosta -1

Wheeler vs Sprayberry -13

Woodstock vs Creekview -6

Games against in-class opponents: Though non-region, these games can matter in the region tiebreakers and the wild-card race. Many regions break ties with teams' records against all teams in the classification. But they're also important in who gets the 32nd playoff berth. Remember that the highest class automatically qualifies 31 teams for the playoffs and leaves an at-large bid to the best fifth-place team (or the four-team Region 1's fourth-place team), whichever among the eight has the highest year-end power rating. Best game here is North Cobb at Etowah because it could go either way. North Cobb won this game 38-35 last season. Both went on to make the playoffs, but the winner of that game affected other teams. For example, Marietta (which played North Cobb) made the playoffs with a 6-4 record. Lassiter (which played Etowah) did not make the playoffs with a 6-4 record. Marietta had a stronger schedule because of North Cobb's win. (Not sure that was the difference, since Marietta lost to North Cobb, but you see the point.) Here are those games:

Brookwood vs Peachtree Ridge -27

Hillgrove at Pebblebrook -21

McEachern vs South Cobb -39

North Cobb at Etowah -7

Roswell vs Campbell -25

Walton at Collins Hill -23

Games vs. out-of-state opponents: There are four of these, all pretty interesting. Good Counsel of Maryland is the No. 7 team in the nation, according to High School Football America. Marietta gets that assignment. Trinity Catholic of St. Louis is the third-best team in Missouri, according to MaxPreps. Trinity plays Colquitt County. Sidney Lanier of Alabama and Wren of South Carolina are unranked playoff-caliber teams from their states.

(Maxwell doesn’t provide projections in games involving out-of-state teams).