So I was 12-of-16 in last Tuesday's Class AAA first-round predictions for the state high school football playoffs. That's 80-percent success. Not great, but passing.
Time to try again with a batch of second-round predictions. But first, where did I go wrong?
-- Cook defeated Windsor Forest 7-6, and I'd picked Windsor Forest to advance. Cook had been to the playoffs every season since 2000, but has lost out in the first or second rounds each year since 2011.
-- North Hall defeated Lovett 24-21. I had banked on Lovett's playoff prowess, but that thought process didn't work. If North Hall wins its game against Crisp County on Friday, it will mark the first time the Trojans have been past the second round since losing in the semifinals in 2012.
-- Liberty County was selected to advance past Jackson, but lost 28-11 on the road. Aside from a quarterfinal exit in 2009 and semifinal exits in 1963 and 2000, Jackson hasn't been past the second round since it began playing football in 1921.
-- Dawson County beat No. 10 Westminster 27-3, a result I did not expect. Nothing against Dawson, which is playing some of the best football the program has played in decades, but I banked on playoff Westminster's playoff history. But apparently playoff history became history.
So here we go again for Round 2:
R6 #2 Calhoun at R4 #1 Peach County: Peach should be victorious against Calhoun in a rematch of the 2017 title game where Peach looked like it scored a touchdown with three minutes left to take the lead, but the pass was ruled incomplete, and Calhoun won 10-6. Peach got redemption at Calhoun last season, and now the program would like get more redemption for the home fans in Fort Valley. For lack of better words, expect fireworks.
R3 #2 Benedictine at R5 #1 Cedar Grove: Cedar Grove should advance past Benedictine. The Saints have been played a strong non-region schedule and breezed through Region 5, playing its best football at the right time. Benedictine has offensive power, but Cedar Grove should be able to handle that threat. Benedictine has big victories in its Region 3 games – 77-0 against Groves, 38-0 against Windsor Forest and 48-0 against Johnson-Savannah. But when it got to the region championship game against Jenkins, the Cadets lost 34-9.
R8 #2 Hart County at R2 #1 Pierce County: Pierce County is unbeaten this season and should advance past the Bulldogs. The Bears had little trouble moving past Central-Macon 49-6 in the first round. Hart County advanced to the second round with a 56-27 victory against Haralson County.
R1 #2 Cook at R7 #1 Greater Atlanta Christian: GAC should have this game in the bag. No offense to Cook, but if GAC loses here, it would be considered a state- and bracket-shattering upset. There's just no indication that the Hornets, which won 7-6 in the first round, can match GAC's offense or defense or special teams or all the above.
R2 #2 Appling County at R8 #1 Jefferson: I like Jefferson here, but if there's a toss-up game in the second round, this might be it. Both teams run the ball. Jefferson averages nearly 350 rushing yards to Appling's 268 yards. Both programs average around 50 passing yards. Jefferson has one loss – 21-20 to Oconee County in the season-opener. Appling County has two losses – 21-14 in overtime to Cook and a 33-24 loss to Wayne County. Jefferson beat Sonoraville 49-17 in the first round; Appling defeated Westside-Macon 28-7.
R7 #2 North Hall at R1 #1 Crisp County: This is another game that could be close, but I like a Crisp to advance to the quarterfinals. Crisp's non-region schedule – playing and beating Class AAAAAAA programs Tift and South Gwinnett in back-to-back weeks -- provided the experience of how to face pressure situations. The Cougars are playing their best football at the right time, scoring the most points of the season in a 46-0 victory against Southeast Bulloch. North Hall nipped Lovett 24-21 in the first round, and the Trojans played nose-to-nose during a 40-37 loss to Dawson County at the end of the regular season.
R4 #2 Jackson at R6 #1 North Murray: North Murray is my pick here. The Mountaineers already have had a historic season after clinching their first-ever region title in 6-AAA, which ended Calhoun's streak of 18 region championships. I don't see its season ending here. North Murray is coming off a 28-14 victory against Monroe Area. Jackson picked up momentum with its 28-11 victory against Liberty County.
R7 #3 Dawson County at R3 #1 Jenkins: This is a difficult selection, but Jenkins will appear in the quarterfinals after a victory against Dawson in the second round. Both programs are balanced. Jenkins averages 206 rushing yards and 137 passing yards. Dawson passes a bit more, averaging 175 yards to 141 rushing. Defense will win this game, and Dawson's defense has given up 206 points this season. Jenkins has allowed 76 points. Dawson has scored 401 points this season, Jenkins 442.
Class AAA second-round schedule
R6 #2 Calhoun at R4 #1 Peach County
R3 #2 Benedictine at R5 #1 Cedar Grove
R8 #2 Hart County at R2 #1 Pierce County
R1 #2 Cook at R7 #1 Greater Atlanta Christian
R2 #2 Appling County at R8 #1 Jefferson
R7 #2 North Hall at R1 #1 Crisp
R4 #2 Jackson at R6 #1 North Murray
R7 #3 Dawson County at R3 #1 Jenkins
Quarterfinal schedule based on second-round predictions
R4 #1 Peach County vs./at R5 #1 Cedar Grove
R2 #1 Pierce County vs./at R7 #1 Greater Atlanta Christian
R8 #1 Jefferson vs./at R1 #1 Crisp
R6 #1 North Murray vs./at R3 #1 Jenkins
Class AAA blog: Grading the first-round picks and predicting the teams that will reach the quarterfinals
