About the Hawks, we separate true from false
Steve Holman, venerable voice of the Hawks, also comes equipped with functioning ears. On Sunday morning, he was listening to a national radio show and heard a former NBA player aver that Cleveland and Chicago are destined to meet in the Eastern Conference finals.
“They can’t!” Holman rightly cried. (Check the bracket.)
The postseason has barely begun, and that, for better or worse, is where we are: The Hawks’ doubters are gaining in numbers, and a performance like Sunday’s – a halting 99-92 victory over the worst playoff qualifier – will only swell those ranks. Which makes this an appropriate time to ask: What’s a realistic criticism? What’s a figment of some bracket-misreader’s imagination? Is this 60-win team really a 60-win team? If not, what is it?
Truth: The Hawks aren't playing the way they did in January. That's to be expected. They were 17-0 in January, and over that month they were better than than any Atlanta pro team has ever been. In a weird way, they were too good. After that banner January, the regular season was essentially over. It was clear the Hawks were going to be the No. 1 seed. Knowing this, they went only 20-14 thereafter. Some of this was by design, but some of it – the injury part – was not.
Truth: The Hawks haven't been quite the same since Thabo Sefolosha was hurt the first time. That came Jan. 30 in a victory over Portland. He missed roughly two months and returned only to have his leg broken in a scrum with New York police. (Talk about NYPD blue.) Before Sefolosha was lost to the calf injury, the Hawks' substitution patterns were so precise as to have been die-cut. When your strength lies in the collective, even a lessening of the second unit can have an outsize effect.
Falsehood: That lessening has dropped the Hawks to second-best – or third-best, depending on the observer – in the East. The Cavaliers, the Vegas favorite to win not just the East but the NBA title, were 20-7 after the All-Star break and had to strain to secure the No. 2 seed. The Hawks, who were locked into No. 1, were 17-10 post-break. (The Bulls were only 16-12. To be fair, they had more than their usual manpower issues.) Even in cruise mode, the Hawks won the East by seven games.
Falsehood: The Hawks only won the East because the East reeked. There's a difference in conferences, yes. Oklahoma City, which missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker, would have been the No. 6 seed in the East. But the Hawks actually had a better winning percentage against the West (.733) than the East (.731). They were 29-13 against playoff qualifiers. They won 60 games on merit.
Truth: The Hawks won't win the East if Paul Millsap isn't the Paul Millsap of the past two seasons. This falls under the heading of "duh." He's their best player. No team is as good if its best player is diminished. (Let's see how far Cleveland goes if LeBron James hurts his shoulder.) The blessing of the playoffs – sometimes it's a curse, but not in the Hawks' case – is that they last forever. Take the first week of Round 1: The Hawks and Nets played Game 1 and then got two days off; after Game 2, they'll get another two days. Millsap clearly hasn't healed, but he should have time.
Falsehood: The Nets could stretch this series to six games. They can't. They won't. By their standards, they played pretty well in Game 1. They made two more baskets and took nine more rebounds than the Hawks — and never held the lead after it was 2-0.
Truth: The Hawks are vulnerable underneath. This will resonate among the they-still-need-a-true-center gaggle, but if the Hawks had a true center they wouldn't be as deft at pace-and-space. Fact is, there aren't many teams with a center capable of exposing the Hawks. The Nets are one – Brook Lopez is a tough take – but they could find only seven shots for him. (Five came off rebounds.) The Hawks jammed the Nets' pick-and-rolls, making Lopez forage for follows. The pace-and-space stuff is what gets noticed, but defense is why the Hawks won 60 games.
Falsehood: Because they play pretty much the same way every game, the Hawks won't make the hackneyed playoff "adjustments." Again from the estimable Mr. Holman: "Mike Budenholzer spent 19 years with Gregg Popovich. You think he didn't learn anything about adjusting?" The best coaches don't so much change things as they tweak, and Budenholzer is among the very best. Is there any coach in the East you'd take over this one? (Maybe Tom Thibodeau, and that's a major maybe.)
Truth: Even if they aren't playing the way they did in January, the Hawks will reach the Eastern finals. The Nets will do well to win once. Washington stole Game 1 in Toronto, and the Hawks have owned the Wizards almost as completely as they have the Nets. They need Millsap to heal, and Al Horford (dislocated pinky), too, but still: Nobody's beating this team until Round 3, if then.
About the Author
Mark Bradley is a sports columnist for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He has been with the AJC since 1984.
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